Development and validation of a prediction model to estimate the risk of liver cirrhosis in primary care patients with abnormal liver blood test results: protocol for an electronic health record study in Clinical Practice Research Datalink
Abstract Background Driven by alcohol consumption and obesity, the prevalence of non-viral liver disease in the UK is increasing. Due to its silent and slow nature, the progression of liver disease is currently unpredictable and challenging to monitor. The latest National Institute for Health Care E...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2019-05-01
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| Series: | Diagnostic and Prognostic Research |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s41512-019-0056-7 |
| _version_ | 1811328602428407808 |
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| author | Suvi Härmälä Alastair O’Brien Constantinos A. Parisinos Kenan Direk Laura Shallcross Andrew Hayward |
| author_facet | Suvi Härmälä Alastair O’Brien Constantinos A. Parisinos Kenan Direk Laura Shallcross Andrew Hayward |
| author_sort | Suvi Härmälä |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Driven by alcohol consumption and obesity, the prevalence of non-viral liver disease in the UK is increasing. Due to its silent and slow nature, the progression of liver disease is currently unpredictable and challenging to monitor. The latest National Institute for Health Care Excellence cirrhosis guidelines call for a validated risk tool that would allow general practitioners to identify patients that are at high risk of developing cirrhosis. Methods Using linked electronic health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (a database of > 10 million patients in England), we aim to develop and validate a prediction model to estimate 2-, 5- and 10-year risk of cirrhosis. The model will provide individualised cirrhosis risk predictions for adult primary care patients, free from underlying liver disease or viral hepatitis infection, whose liver blood test results come back abnormal. We will externally validate the model in patients from 30 further Clinical Practice Research Datalink general practices in England. Discussion The prediction model will provide estimates of cirrhosis risk in primary care patients with abnormal liver blood test results to guide referral to secondary care, to identify patients who are in serious need of preventative health interventions and to help reassure patients at low risk of cirrhosis in the long term. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T15:28:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-96286bcc0e5e4bdba4f0cecf606f0c68 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2397-7523 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T15:28:52Z |
| publishDate | 2019-05-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Diagnostic and Prognostic Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-96286bcc0e5e4bdba4f0cecf606f0c682022-12-22T02:41:26ZengBMCDiagnostic and Prognostic Research2397-75232019-05-013111110.1186/s41512-019-0056-7Development and validation of a prediction model to estimate the risk of liver cirrhosis in primary care patients with abnormal liver blood test results: protocol for an electronic health record study in Clinical Practice Research DatalinkSuvi Härmälä0Alastair O’Brien1Constantinos A. Parisinos2Kenan Direk3Laura Shallcross4Andrew Hayward5Institute of Health Informatics, University College LondonDivision of Medicine, University College LondonInstitute of Health Informatics, University College LondonInstitute of Health Informatics, University College LondonInstitute of Health Informatics, University College LondonInstitute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College LondonAbstract Background Driven by alcohol consumption and obesity, the prevalence of non-viral liver disease in the UK is increasing. Due to its silent and slow nature, the progression of liver disease is currently unpredictable and challenging to monitor. The latest National Institute for Health Care Excellence cirrhosis guidelines call for a validated risk tool that would allow general practitioners to identify patients that are at high risk of developing cirrhosis. Methods Using linked electronic health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (a database of > 10 million patients in England), we aim to develop and validate a prediction model to estimate 2-, 5- and 10-year risk of cirrhosis. The model will provide individualised cirrhosis risk predictions for adult primary care patients, free from underlying liver disease or viral hepatitis infection, whose liver blood test results come back abnormal. We will externally validate the model in patients from 30 further Clinical Practice Research Datalink general practices in England. Discussion The prediction model will provide estimates of cirrhosis risk in primary care patients with abnormal liver blood test results to guide referral to secondary care, to identify patients who are in serious need of preventative health interventions and to help reassure patients at low risk of cirrhosis in the long term.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s41512-019-0056-7Prediction modelPrognosisCirrhosisLiver diseasePrimary careElectronic health records |
| spellingShingle | Suvi Härmälä Alastair O’Brien Constantinos A. Parisinos Kenan Direk Laura Shallcross Andrew Hayward Development and validation of a prediction model to estimate the risk of liver cirrhosis in primary care patients with abnormal liver blood test results: protocol for an electronic health record study in Clinical Practice Research Datalink Diagnostic and Prognostic Research Prediction model Prognosis Cirrhosis Liver disease Primary care Electronic health records |
| title | Development and validation of a prediction model to estimate the risk of liver cirrhosis in primary care patients with abnormal liver blood test results: protocol for an electronic health record study in Clinical Practice Research Datalink |
| title_full | Development and validation of a prediction model to estimate the risk of liver cirrhosis in primary care patients with abnormal liver blood test results: protocol for an electronic health record study in Clinical Practice Research Datalink |
| title_fullStr | Development and validation of a prediction model to estimate the risk of liver cirrhosis in primary care patients with abnormal liver blood test results: protocol for an electronic health record study in Clinical Practice Research Datalink |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and validation of a prediction model to estimate the risk of liver cirrhosis in primary care patients with abnormal liver blood test results: protocol for an electronic health record study in Clinical Practice Research Datalink |
| title_short | Development and validation of a prediction model to estimate the risk of liver cirrhosis in primary care patients with abnormal liver blood test results: protocol for an electronic health record study in Clinical Practice Research Datalink |
| title_sort | development and validation of a prediction model to estimate the risk of liver cirrhosis in primary care patients with abnormal liver blood test results protocol for an electronic health record study in clinical practice research datalink |
| topic | Prediction model Prognosis Cirrhosis Liver disease Primary care Electronic health records |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s41512-019-0056-7 |
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