Long-Term Variability of Relationships between Potential Large-Scale Drivers and Summer Precipitation in North China in the CERA-20C Reanalysis

Although much progress has been made in identifying the large-scale drivers of recent summer precipitation variability in North China, the evolution of these drivers over longer time scales remains unclear. We investigate multidecadal and interannual variability in North China summer precipitation i...

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Main Authors: Lan Dai, Jonathon S. Wright
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2021-01-01
Series:Atmosphere
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/1/81
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author Lan Dai
Jonathon S. Wright
author_facet Lan Dai
Jonathon S. Wright
author_sort Lan Dai
collection DOAJ
description Although much progress has been made in identifying the large-scale drivers of recent summer precipitation variability in North China, the evolution of these drivers over longer time scales remains unclear. We investigate multidecadal and interannual variability in North China summer precipitation in the 110-year Coupled ECMWF Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century (CERA-20C), considering changes in regional moisture and surface energy budgets along with nine circulation indices linked to anomalous precipitation in this region. The CERA-20C record is separated into three distinct periods according to the running climatology of summer precipitation: 1901–1944 (neutral), 1945–1979 (wet), and 1980–2010 (dry). CERA-20C reproduces expected relationships between large-scale drivers and regional summer precipitation anomalies well during 1980–2010, but these relationships generally do not extend to earlier periods. For example, a strong relationship with the Eurasian teleconnection pattern only emerges in the late 1970s, while correlations with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific–Japan pattern change sign in the mid-twentieth century. We evaluate two possible reasons for this nonstationarity: (1) the underlying atmospheric model may require strong data assimilation constraints to capture large-scale circulation influences on North China, or (2) large-scale drivers inferred from recent records may be less general than expected. Our analysis indicates that both factors contribute to the identified nonstationarity in CERA-20C, with implications for the reliability of seasonal forecasts and climate projections based on current models.
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spelling doaj.art-9670f80b35df45d3bc183753e9e56a3a2023-12-03T12:19:22ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332021-01-011218110.3390/atmos12010081Long-Term Variability of Relationships between Potential Large-Scale Drivers and Summer Precipitation in North China in the CERA-20C ReanalysisLan Dai0Jonathon S. Wright1Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaDepartment of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaAlthough much progress has been made in identifying the large-scale drivers of recent summer precipitation variability in North China, the evolution of these drivers over longer time scales remains unclear. We investigate multidecadal and interannual variability in North China summer precipitation in the 110-year Coupled ECMWF Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century (CERA-20C), considering changes in regional moisture and surface energy budgets along with nine circulation indices linked to anomalous precipitation in this region. The CERA-20C record is separated into three distinct periods according to the running climatology of summer precipitation: 1901–1944 (neutral), 1945–1979 (wet), and 1980–2010 (dry). CERA-20C reproduces expected relationships between large-scale drivers and regional summer precipitation anomalies well during 1980–2010, but these relationships generally do not extend to earlier periods. For example, a strong relationship with the Eurasian teleconnection pattern only emerges in the late 1970s, while correlations with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific–Japan pattern change sign in the mid-twentieth century. We evaluate two possible reasons for this nonstationarity: (1) the underlying atmospheric model may require strong data assimilation constraints to capture large-scale circulation influences on North China, or (2) large-scale drivers inferred from recent records may be less general than expected. Our analysis indicates that both factors contribute to the identified nonstationarity in CERA-20C, with implications for the reliability of seasonal forecasts and climate projections based on current models.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/1/81precipitationNorth Chinateleconnectioncentennial-scale reanalysis
spellingShingle Lan Dai
Jonathon S. Wright
Long-Term Variability of Relationships between Potential Large-Scale Drivers and Summer Precipitation in North China in the CERA-20C Reanalysis
Atmosphere
precipitation
North China
teleconnection
centennial-scale reanalysis
title Long-Term Variability of Relationships between Potential Large-Scale Drivers and Summer Precipitation in North China in the CERA-20C Reanalysis
title_full Long-Term Variability of Relationships between Potential Large-Scale Drivers and Summer Precipitation in North China in the CERA-20C Reanalysis
title_fullStr Long-Term Variability of Relationships between Potential Large-Scale Drivers and Summer Precipitation in North China in the CERA-20C Reanalysis
title_full_unstemmed Long-Term Variability of Relationships between Potential Large-Scale Drivers and Summer Precipitation in North China in the CERA-20C Reanalysis
title_short Long-Term Variability of Relationships between Potential Large-Scale Drivers and Summer Precipitation in North China in the CERA-20C Reanalysis
title_sort long term variability of relationships between potential large scale drivers and summer precipitation in north china in the cera 20c reanalysis
topic precipitation
North China
teleconnection
centennial-scale reanalysis
url https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/1/81
work_keys_str_mv AT landai longtermvariabilityofrelationshipsbetweenpotentiallargescaledriversandsummerprecipitationinnorthchinainthecera20creanalysis
AT jonathonswright longtermvariabilityofrelationshipsbetweenpotentiallargescaledriversandsummerprecipitationinnorthchinainthecera20creanalysis