Impact of green water anomalies on global rainfed crop yields
The importance of green water (moisture from rain stored in soils) for global food and water security is widely recognized, with process-based simulation models and field-level studies demonstrating its role in supporting rainfed agriculture. Despite this evidence, the relationship between green wat...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc587 |
| _version_ | 1797747671240278016 |
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| author | Edoardo Borgomeo Hassaan F Khan Matias Heino Esha Zaveri Matti Kummu Casey Brown Anders Jägerskog |
| author_facet | Edoardo Borgomeo Hassaan F Khan Matias Heino Esha Zaveri Matti Kummu Casey Brown Anders Jägerskog |
| author_sort | Edoardo Borgomeo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The importance of green water (moisture from rain stored in soils) for global food and water security is widely recognized, with process-based simulation models and field-level studies demonstrating its role in supporting rainfed agriculture. Despite this evidence, the relationship between green water anomalies and rainfed agriculture has not yet been investigated using statistical models that identify a causal relationship between the variables. Here, we address this gap and use disaggregated statistical regression (panel data analysis) at the 30 arc-min grid level to study the response of observed yields (1982–2010) of four main crops (maize, rice, soybean and wheat) to green water anomalies globally over rainfed areas. Dry green water anomalies (1 or 2 standard deviations below long-term average) decrease rainfed crop yields worldwide. This effect is more pronounced for wheat and maize, whose yields decline by 12%–18% and 7%–12% respectively. Globally, agricultural production benefits from wet green water anomalies. This effect is intensified in arid climates and weakened in humid climates where, for wheat, soybean and rice, periods of green water availability 2 standard deviations above long-term averages lead to declines in crop yield. This confirms existing evidence that excess soil moisture is detrimental to crop yield. These findings (1) advance our understanding of the impact of green water on rainfed food production and (2) provide empirical evidence supporting arguments for better management of local green water resources to reduce the impact of agricultural drought and waterlogging on rainfed crop production and capture the yield increasing effects of positive green water anomalies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:54:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9695542d40054b01856f255633f4a906 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:54:55Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-9695542d40054b01856f255633f4a9062023-08-09T14:59:19ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-01151212403010.1088/1748-9326/abc587Impact of green water anomalies on global rainfed crop yieldsEdoardo Borgomeo0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8351-9064Hassaan F Khan1Matias Heino2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4294-7756Esha Zaveri3Matti Kummu4https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5096-0163Casey Brown5Anders Jägerskog6Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford , Oxford OX1 3QY, United Kingdom; Contributed equally to the workSchool of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences, Stanford University , Stanford, CA 94305, United States of America; Dhanani School of Science and Engineering, Habib University , Karachi, Pakistan; Contributed equally to the workWater & Development Research Group, Aalto University , P.O. Box 15200, Aalto, FinlandWater Global Practice, World Bank , 1818 H St NW, Washington, DC 20433, United States of AmericaWater & Development Research Group, Aalto University , P.O. Box 15200, Aalto, FinlandDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Massachusetts Amherst , Amherst, MA 01003, United States of AmericaWater Global Practice, World Bank , 1818 H St NW, Washington, DC 20433, United States of AmericaThe importance of green water (moisture from rain stored in soils) for global food and water security is widely recognized, with process-based simulation models and field-level studies demonstrating its role in supporting rainfed agriculture. Despite this evidence, the relationship between green water anomalies and rainfed agriculture has not yet been investigated using statistical models that identify a causal relationship between the variables. Here, we address this gap and use disaggregated statistical regression (panel data analysis) at the 30 arc-min grid level to study the response of observed yields (1982–2010) of four main crops (maize, rice, soybean and wheat) to green water anomalies globally over rainfed areas. Dry green water anomalies (1 or 2 standard deviations below long-term average) decrease rainfed crop yields worldwide. This effect is more pronounced for wheat and maize, whose yields decline by 12%–18% and 7%–12% respectively. Globally, agricultural production benefits from wet green water anomalies. This effect is intensified in arid climates and weakened in humid climates where, for wheat, soybean and rice, periods of green water availability 2 standard deviations above long-term averages lead to declines in crop yield. This confirms existing evidence that excess soil moisture is detrimental to crop yield. These findings (1) advance our understanding of the impact of green water on rainfed food production and (2) provide empirical evidence supporting arguments for better management of local green water resources to reduce the impact of agricultural drought and waterlogging on rainfed crop production and capture the yield increasing effects of positive green water anomalies.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc587green waterhydrological variabilitypanel data analysiscrop yieldsfood productionsoil moisture |
| spellingShingle | Edoardo Borgomeo Hassaan F Khan Matias Heino Esha Zaveri Matti Kummu Casey Brown Anders Jägerskog Impact of green water anomalies on global rainfed crop yields Environmental Research Letters green water hydrological variability panel data analysis crop yields food production soil moisture |
| title | Impact of green water anomalies on global rainfed crop yields |
| title_full | Impact of green water anomalies on global rainfed crop yields |
| title_fullStr | Impact of green water anomalies on global rainfed crop yields |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of green water anomalies on global rainfed crop yields |
| title_short | Impact of green water anomalies on global rainfed crop yields |
| title_sort | impact of green water anomalies on global rainfed crop yields |
| topic | green water hydrological variability panel data analysis crop yields food production soil moisture |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc587 |
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