Historical (1960–2014) lightning and LNO<sub><i>x</i></sub> trends and their controlling factors in a chemistry–climate model
<p>Lightning can cause natural hazards that result in human and animal injuries and fatalities, infrastructure destruction, and wildfire ignition. Lightning-produced <span class="inline-formula">NO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> (L<span class="i...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/13061/2023/acp-23-13061-2023.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797658310921420800 |
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| author | Y. He K. Sudo K. Sudo |
| author_facet | Y. He K. Sudo K. Sudo |
| author_sort | Y. He |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Lightning can cause natural hazards that result in human and animal injuries and fatalities, infrastructure destruction, and wildfire ignition. Lightning-produced <span class="inline-formula">NO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> (L<span class="inline-formula">NO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span>), a major <span class="inline-formula">NO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> (<span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M6" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mrow class="chem"><msub><mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mi><mi>x</mi></msub></mrow><mo>=</mo><mrow class="chem"><mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mi></mrow><mo>+</mo><mrow class="chem"><msub><mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mi><mn mathvariant="normal">2</mn></msub></mrow></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="85pt" height="13pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="f0add4bbe2151ecfa7cd944e28fa7e9e"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="acp-23-13061-2023-ie00001.svg" width="85pt" height="13pt" src="acp-23-13061-2023-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg></span></span>) source, plays a vital role in atmospheric chemistry and global climate. The Earth has experienced marked global warming and changes in aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions (AeroPEs) since the 1960s. Investigating long-term historical (1960–2014) lightning and <span class="inline-formula">LNO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> trends can provide important indicators for all lightning-related phenomena and for <span class="inline-formula">LNO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> effects on atmospheric chemistry and global climate. Understanding how global warming and changes in AeroPEs influence historical lightning and <span class="inline-formula">LNO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> trends can be helpful in providing a scientific basis for assessing future lightning and <span class="inline-formula">LNO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> trends. Moreover, global lightning activities' responses to large volcanic eruptions such as the 1991 Pinatubo eruption are not well elucidated and are worth exploring. This study employed the widely used cloud top height lightning scheme (CTH scheme) and the newly developed ice-based ECMWF-McCAUL lightning scheme to investigate historical (1960–2014) lightning and <span class="inline-formula">LNO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> trends and variations as well as their influencing factors (global warming, increases in AeroPEs, and the Pinatubo eruption) in the framework of the CHASER (MIROC) chemistry–climate model. The results of the sensitivity experiments indicate that both lightning schemes simulated almost flat global mean lightning flash rate anomaly trends during 1960–2014 in CHASER (the Mann–Kendall trend test (significance inferred as 5 %) shows no trend for the ECMWF-McCAUL scheme, but a 0.03 <span class="inline-formula">% yr<sup>−1</sup></span> significant increasing trend is detected for the CTH scheme). Moreover, both lightning schemes suggest that past global warming enhances historical trends for global mean lightning density and global <span class="inline-formula">LNO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> emissions in a positive direction (around 0.03 <span class="inline-formula">% yr<sup>−1</sup></span> or 3 <span class="inline-formula">% K<sup>−1</sup></span>). However, past increases in AeroPEs exert an opposite effect on the lightning and <span class="inline-formula">LNO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> trends (<span class="inline-formula">−</span>0.07 % to <span class="inline-formula">−</span>0.04 <span class="inline-formula">% yr<sup>−1</sup></span> for lightning and <span class="inline-formula">−</span>0.08 % to <span class="inline-formula">−</span>0.03 <span class="inline-formula">% yr<sup>−1</sup></span> for L<span class="inline-formula">NO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span>) when one considers only the aerosol radiative effects in the cumulus convection scheme. Additionally, effects of past global warming and increases in AeroPEs in lightning trends were found to be heterogeneous across different regions when analyzing lightning trends on the global map. Lastly, this paper is the first of study results suggesting that global lightning activities were markedly suppressed during the first year after the Pinatubo eruption as shown in both lightning schemes (global lightning activities decreased by as much as 18.10 % as simulated by the ECMWF-McCAUL scheme). Based on the simulated suppressed lightning activities after the Pinatubo eruption, the findings also indicate that global <span class="inline-formula">LNO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> emissions decreased after the 2- to 3-year Pinatubo eruption (1.99 %–8.47 % for the annual percentage reduction). Model intercomparisons of lightning flash rate trends and variations between our study (CHASER) and other Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models indicate great uncertainties in historical (1960–2014) global lightning trend simulations. Such uncertainties must be investigated further.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T17:57:14Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-96c648e3ebea404cb644b77956a3d166 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T17:57:14Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-96c648e3ebea404cb644b77956a3d1662023-10-17T11:46:06ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242023-10-0123130611308510.5194/acp-23-13061-2023Historical (1960–2014) lightning and LNO<sub><i>x</i></sub> trends and their controlling factors in a chemistry–climate modelY. He0K. Sudo1K. Sudo2Graduate School of Environment Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, 464-8601, JapanGraduate School of Environment Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, 464-8601, JapanJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, 237-0061, Japan<p>Lightning can cause natural hazards that result in human and animal injuries and fatalities, infrastructure destruction, and wildfire ignition. Lightning-produced <span class="inline-formula">NO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> (L<span class="inline-formula">NO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span>), a major <span class="inline-formula">NO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> (<span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M6" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mrow class="chem"><msub><mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mi><mi>x</mi></msub></mrow><mo>=</mo><mrow class="chem"><mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mi></mrow><mo>+</mo><mrow class="chem"><msub><mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mi><mn mathvariant="normal">2</mn></msub></mrow></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="85pt" height="13pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="f0add4bbe2151ecfa7cd944e28fa7e9e"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="acp-23-13061-2023-ie00001.svg" width="85pt" height="13pt" src="acp-23-13061-2023-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg></span></span>) source, plays a vital role in atmospheric chemistry and global climate. The Earth has experienced marked global warming and changes in aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions (AeroPEs) since the 1960s. Investigating long-term historical (1960–2014) lightning and <span class="inline-formula">LNO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> trends can provide important indicators for all lightning-related phenomena and for <span class="inline-formula">LNO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> effects on atmospheric chemistry and global climate. Understanding how global warming and changes in AeroPEs influence historical lightning and <span class="inline-formula">LNO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> trends can be helpful in providing a scientific basis for assessing future lightning and <span class="inline-formula">LNO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> trends. Moreover, global lightning activities' responses to large volcanic eruptions such as the 1991 Pinatubo eruption are not well elucidated and are worth exploring. This study employed the widely used cloud top height lightning scheme (CTH scheme) and the newly developed ice-based ECMWF-McCAUL lightning scheme to investigate historical (1960–2014) lightning and <span class="inline-formula">LNO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> trends and variations as well as their influencing factors (global warming, increases in AeroPEs, and the Pinatubo eruption) in the framework of the CHASER (MIROC) chemistry–climate model. The results of the sensitivity experiments indicate that both lightning schemes simulated almost flat global mean lightning flash rate anomaly trends during 1960–2014 in CHASER (the Mann–Kendall trend test (significance inferred as 5 %) shows no trend for the ECMWF-McCAUL scheme, but a 0.03 <span class="inline-formula">% yr<sup>−1</sup></span> significant increasing trend is detected for the CTH scheme). Moreover, both lightning schemes suggest that past global warming enhances historical trends for global mean lightning density and global <span class="inline-formula">LNO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> emissions in a positive direction (around 0.03 <span class="inline-formula">% yr<sup>−1</sup></span> or 3 <span class="inline-formula">% K<sup>−1</sup></span>). However, past increases in AeroPEs exert an opposite effect on the lightning and <span class="inline-formula">LNO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> trends (<span class="inline-formula">−</span>0.07 % to <span class="inline-formula">−</span>0.04 <span class="inline-formula">% yr<sup>−1</sup></span> for lightning and <span class="inline-formula">−</span>0.08 % to <span class="inline-formula">−</span>0.03 <span class="inline-formula">% yr<sup>−1</sup></span> for L<span class="inline-formula">NO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span>) when one considers only the aerosol radiative effects in the cumulus convection scheme. Additionally, effects of past global warming and increases in AeroPEs in lightning trends were found to be heterogeneous across different regions when analyzing lightning trends on the global map. Lastly, this paper is the first of study results suggesting that global lightning activities were markedly suppressed during the first year after the Pinatubo eruption as shown in both lightning schemes (global lightning activities decreased by as much as 18.10 % as simulated by the ECMWF-McCAUL scheme). Based on the simulated suppressed lightning activities after the Pinatubo eruption, the findings also indicate that global <span class="inline-formula">LNO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> emissions decreased after the 2- to 3-year Pinatubo eruption (1.99 %–8.47 % for the annual percentage reduction). Model intercomparisons of lightning flash rate trends and variations between our study (CHASER) and other Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models indicate great uncertainties in historical (1960–2014) global lightning trend simulations. Such uncertainties must be investigated further.</p>https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/13061/2023/acp-23-13061-2023.pdf |
| spellingShingle | Y. He K. Sudo K. Sudo Historical (1960–2014) lightning and LNO<sub><i>x</i></sub> trends and their controlling factors in a chemistry–climate model Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | Historical (1960–2014) lightning and LNO<sub><i>x</i></sub> trends and their controlling factors in a chemistry–climate model |
| title_full | Historical (1960–2014) lightning and LNO<sub><i>x</i></sub> trends and their controlling factors in a chemistry–climate model |
| title_fullStr | Historical (1960–2014) lightning and LNO<sub><i>x</i></sub> trends and their controlling factors in a chemistry–climate model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Historical (1960–2014) lightning and LNO<sub><i>x</i></sub> trends and their controlling factors in a chemistry–climate model |
| title_short | Historical (1960–2014) lightning and LNO<sub><i>x</i></sub> trends and their controlling factors in a chemistry–climate model |
| title_sort | historical 1960 2014 lightning and lno sub i x i sub trends and their controlling factors in a chemistry climate model |
| url | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/13061/2023/acp-23-13061-2023.pdf |
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