INTEGRATED PROJECTION FOR RUNOFF CHANGES IN LARGE RUSSIAN RIVER BASINS IN THE XXI CENTURY
The paper discusses an approach to a long-term forecast of river runoff changes for Russian large river basins in the first third of the XXI century caused by climate warming and social-economic changes. The approach considers runoff changes under a range of possible climate warming effects. This ra...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Lomonosov Moscow State University
2016-06-01
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| Series: | Geography, Environment, Sustainability |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/99 |
| _version_ | 1797878448126951424 |
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| author | Alexander G. Georgiadi Nikolai I. Koronkevich Irina P. Milyukova Elena A. Barabanova |
| author_facet | Alexander G. Georgiadi Nikolai I. Koronkevich Irina P. Milyukova Elena A. Barabanova |
| author_sort | Alexander G. Georgiadi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The paper discusses an approach to a long-term forecast of river runoff changes for Russian large river basins in the first third of the XXI century caused by climate warming and social-economic changes. The approach considers runoff changes under a range of possible climate warming effects. This range is chosen by generalizing the calculation results obtained by using an ensemble of global climate models within CMIP 3 and CMIP 5 experiments for twocontrasting scenarios (A2/RCP 8.5 and B1/RCP 2.6) of globally averaged air temperature rises. The approach also utilizes a method for alternative scenario for water consumption related to socio-economic changes. The obtained scenario estimates show that expected changes in the Volga and Don annual river runoff and its intra-annual distribution in the first third of this century can be relatively small, while changes in water use characteristics may be extremely negative in some scenarios, especially in the Don River basin. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T02:33:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-96ecf7c8a96544fd95b307ef1fd04ecf |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2071-9388 2542-1565 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T02:33:50Z |
| publishDate | 2016-06-01 |
| publisher | Lomonosov Moscow State University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geography, Environment, Sustainability |
| spelling | doaj.art-96ecf7c8a96544fd95b307ef1fd04ecf2023-03-13T07:52:31ZengLomonosov Moscow State UniversityGeography, Environment, Sustainability2071-93882542-15652016-06-0192384610.24057/2071-9388-2016-9-2-59-6598INTEGRATED PROJECTION FOR RUNOFF CHANGES IN LARGE RUSSIAN RIVER BASINS IN THE XXI CENTURYAlexander G. Georgiadi0Nikolai I. Koronkevich1Irina P. Milyukova2Elena A. Barabanova3Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of SciencesInstitute of Geography, Russian Academy of SciencesInstitute of Geography, Russian Academy of SciencesInstitute of Geography, Russian Academy of SciencesThe paper discusses an approach to a long-term forecast of river runoff changes for Russian large river basins in the first third of the XXI century caused by climate warming and social-economic changes. The approach considers runoff changes under a range of possible climate warming effects. This range is chosen by generalizing the calculation results obtained by using an ensemble of global climate models within CMIP 3 and CMIP 5 experiments for twocontrasting scenarios (A2/RCP 8.5 and B1/RCP 2.6) of globally averaged air temperature rises. The approach also utilizes a method for alternative scenario for water consumption related to socio-economic changes. The obtained scenario estimates show that expected changes in the Volga and Don annual river runoff and its intra-annual distribution in the first third of this century can be relatively small, while changes in water use characteristics may be extremely negative in some scenarios, especially in the Don River basin.https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/99large river basinsscenarios of river runoff changesglobal climate warmingsocio-economic changeswater consumption |
| spellingShingle | Alexander G. Georgiadi Nikolai I. Koronkevich Irina P. Milyukova Elena A. Barabanova INTEGRATED PROJECTION FOR RUNOFF CHANGES IN LARGE RUSSIAN RIVER BASINS IN THE XXI CENTURY Geography, Environment, Sustainability large river basins scenarios of river runoff changes global climate warming socio-economic changes water consumption |
| title | INTEGRATED PROJECTION FOR RUNOFF CHANGES IN LARGE RUSSIAN RIVER BASINS IN THE XXI CENTURY |
| title_full | INTEGRATED PROJECTION FOR RUNOFF CHANGES IN LARGE RUSSIAN RIVER BASINS IN THE XXI CENTURY |
| title_fullStr | INTEGRATED PROJECTION FOR RUNOFF CHANGES IN LARGE RUSSIAN RIVER BASINS IN THE XXI CENTURY |
| title_full_unstemmed | INTEGRATED PROJECTION FOR RUNOFF CHANGES IN LARGE RUSSIAN RIVER BASINS IN THE XXI CENTURY |
| title_short | INTEGRATED PROJECTION FOR RUNOFF CHANGES IN LARGE RUSSIAN RIVER BASINS IN THE XXI CENTURY |
| title_sort | integrated projection for runoff changes in large russian river basins in the xxi century |
| topic | large river basins scenarios of river runoff changes global climate warming socio-economic changes water consumption |
| url | https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/99 |
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