| Summary: | [Introduction] China's "carbon peak and neutrality" strategy has determined the direction for the development of hydrogen energy. This paper takes Shanghai as an example to study the process of urban emission reduction through energy substitution and the prediction of energy consumption structure in regional central cities under the goal of carbon neutrality. Green hydrogen energy and low-carbon energy sources (such as natural gas and electricity) are complementary to each other. Measuring the scale of hydrogen energy is of great significance to urban hydrogen energy planning, and thus forward-looking prediction and top-level design suggestions are put forward for hydrogen energy development. [Method] By establishing a prediction model of urban carbon neutrality, the total urban carbon emissions were simulated and analyzed, and the total carbon emissions by 2060 were predicted based on the current carbon emissions. According to the energy substitution emission reduction formula and the energy consumption model under the carbon emission reduction constraints, the demand for hydrogen energy, electricity, natural gas and other key energy sources was predicted. Through the investigation of hydrogen energy application scenarios and supply sources, the demand structure and supply composition of urban hydrogen energy were analyzed. [Result] The study shows that Shanghai is expected to peak its carbon dioxide emissions by 2028, with direct emissions peaking at 209 million tons, and then enter the process of total emission reduction. The emission reduction will peak by 2040, and carbon neutrality will be achieved by 2060. Green hydrogen energy, as a zero-carbon energy, will gradually enter the energy consumption structure by 2030. In 2040, the total demand for hydrogen energy will be about 3 million tons, accounting for about 11% of the total energy consumption. By 2060, the total demand for hydrogen energy will be about 8.35 million tons, reaching 21% of the total energy consumption. [Conclusion] Therefore, a reasonable hydrogen energy supply and consumption structure can be built, a hydrogen energy expressway can be constructed, and a regional hydrogen energy center with perfect safety structure, financial structure, production structure and knowledge structure and mastering the pricing power of hydrogen energy can be established through the top-level design of hydrogen energy strategy.
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