Effects of contact tracing and non-Markovian awareness process on the spread of air-borne diseases
Contact tracing is an important tool to contain the spread of many airborne diseases. We develop an approximated pairwise model to investigate the impact of non-Markovian awareness process among infectious individuals represented by pairwise endemic models. We derive the basic reproduction number an...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-12-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Physics |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphy.2022.1089199/full |
| _version_ | 1797980102612484096 |
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| author | Wei Sun Jing Ren Ling Xue Xiangdong Sun |
| author_facet | Wei Sun Jing Ren Ling Xue Xiangdong Sun |
| author_sort | Wei Sun |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Contact tracing is an important tool to contain the spread of many airborne diseases. We develop an approximated pairwise model to investigate the impact of non-Markovian awareness process among infectious individuals represented by pairwise endemic models. We derive the basic reproduction number and the final epidemic size, which are dependent on the tracing rate and the distribution of awareness process. The model analysis provides the threshold of contact tracing rate. When the contact tracing rate is greater than the threshold, the basic reproduction number will be less than one, then the epidemic will eventually die out. The analysis further shows that, higher variance in the awareness process generates smaller basic reproduction number, lower tracing threshold, and larger final epidemic size, when the mean awareness period is fixed. Extensive numerical analysis show the comprehensive effects of tracing rates and non-Markovian awareness processes on human behavior and the transmissibility ability of epidemic. It turns out that large tracing rates and high variances in awareness process lead to obvious reductions in contacts between susceptible and infectious individuals, so as to curb the transmission of infectious diseases. Moreover, contact tracing is more effective in reducing the number of infected individuals and the contacts between susceptible and infected individuals when the awareness process has a larger variance. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T05:49:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-972210b8ad8d43b18ee63a9063599f39 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-424X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T05:49:03Z |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-972210b8ad8d43b18ee63a9063599f392022-12-22T04:42:07ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Physics2296-424X2022-12-011010.3389/fphy.2022.10891991089199Effects of contact tracing and non-Markovian awareness process on the spread of air-borne diseasesWei Sun0Jing Ren1Ling Xue2Xiangdong Sun3College of Mathematical Sciences, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, ChinaCollege of Mathematical Sciences, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, ChinaCollege of Mathematical Sciences, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, ChinaChina Animal Health and Epidemiology Center, Qingdao, Shandong, ChinaContact tracing is an important tool to contain the spread of many airborne diseases. We develop an approximated pairwise model to investigate the impact of non-Markovian awareness process among infectious individuals represented by pairwise endemic models. We derive the basic reproduction number and the final epidemic size, which are dependent on the tracing rate and the distribution of awareness process. The model analysis provides the threshold of contact tracing rate. When the contact tracing rate is greater than the threshold, the basic reproduction number will be less than one, then the epidemic will eventually die out. The analysis further shows that, higher variance in the awareness process generates smaller basic reproduction number, lower tracing threshold, and larger final epidemic size, when the mean awareness period is fixed. Extensive numerical analysis show the comprehensive effects of tracing rates and non-Markovian awareness processes on human behavior and the transmissibility ability of epidemic. It turns out that large tracing rates and high variances in awareness process lead to obvious reductions in contacts between susceptible and infectious individuals, so as to curb the transmission of infectious diseases. Moreover, contact tracing is more effective in reducing the number of infected individuals and the contacts between susceptible and infected individuals when the awareness process has a larger variance.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphy.2022.1089199/fullinfectious diseasescontact tracingnon-Markovianawarenesspairwise model |
| spellingShingle | Wei Sun Jing Ren Ling Xue Xiangdong Sun Effects of contact tracing and non-Markovian awareness process on the spread of air-borne diseases Frontiers in Physics infectious diseases contact tracing non-Markovian awareness pairwise model |
| title | Effects of contact tracing and non-Markovian awareness process on the spread of air-borne diseases |
| title_full | Effects of contact tracing and non-Markovian awareness process on the spread of air-borne diseases |
| title_fullStr | Effects of contact tracing and non-Markovian awareness process on the spread of air-borne diseases |
| title_full_unstemmed | Effects of contact tracing and non-Markovian awareness process on the spread of air-borne diseases |
| title_short | Effects of contact tracing and non-Markovian awareness process on the spread of air-borne diseases |
| title_sort | effects of contact tracing and non markovian awareness process on the spread of air borne diseases |
| topic | infectious diseases contact tracing non-Markovian awareness pairwise model |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphy.2022.1089199/full |
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