Trend Analysis of Rainfall Time Series in Shanxi Province, Northern China (1957–2019)
Changes in rainfall play an important role in agricultural production, water supply and management, and social and economic development in arid and semi-arid regions. The objective of this study was to examine the trend of rainfall series from 18 meteorological stations for monthly, seasonal, and an...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-08-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/9/2335 |
| _version_ | 1797556865857486848 |
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| author | Feng Gao Yunpeng Wang Xiaoling Chen Wenfu Yang |
| author_facet | Feng Gao Yunpeng Wang Xiaoling Chen Wenfu Yang |
| author_sort | Feng Gao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Changes in rainfall play an important role in agricultural production, water supply and management, and social and economic development in arid and semi-arid regions. The objective of this study was to examine the trend of rainfall series from 18 meteorological stations for monthly, seasonal, and annual scales in Shanxi province over the period 1957–2019. The Mann–Kendall (MK) test, Spearman’s Rho (SR) test, and the Revised Mann–Kendall (RMK) test were used to identify the trends. Sen’s slope estimator (SSE) was used to estimate the magnitude of the rainfall trend. An autocorrelation function (ACF) plot was used to examine the autocorrelation coefficients at various lags in order to improve the trend analysis by the application of the RMK test. The results indicate remarkable differences with positive and negative trends (significant or non-significant) depending on stations. The largest number of stations showing decreasing trends occurred in March, with 10 out of 18 stations at the 10%, 5%, and 1% levels. Wutai Shan station has strong negative trends in January, March, April, November, and December at the level of 1%. In addition, Wutai Shan station also experienced a significant decreasing trend over four seasons at a significance level of 1% and 10%. On the annual scale, there was no significant trend detected by the three identification methods for most stations. MK and SR tests have similar power for detecting monotonic trends in rainfall time series data. Although similar results were obtained by the MK/SR and RMK tests in this study, in some cases, unreasonable trends may be provided by the RMK test. The findings of this study could benefit agricultural production activities, water supply and management, drought monitoring, and socioeconomic development in Shanxi province in the future. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T17:08:01Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9725456397dd4b818721b8e88d71627c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T17:08:01Z |
| publishDate | 2020-08-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-9725456397dd4b818721b8e88d71627c2023-11-20T10:44:16ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412020-08-01129233510.3390/w12092335Trend Analysis of Rainfall Time Series in Shanxi Province, Northern China (1957–2019)Feng Gao0Yunpeng Wang1Xiaoling Chen2Wenfu Yang3School of Resources and Environment, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, ChinaGuangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, ChinaSchool of Land Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, ChinaChanges in rainfall play an important role in agricultural production, water supply and management, and social and economic development in arid and semi-arid regions. The objective of this study was to examine the trend of rainfall series from 18 meteorological stations for monthly, seasonal, and annual scales in Shanxi province over the period 1957–2019. The Mann–Kendall (MK) test, Spearman’s Rho (SR) test, and the Revised Mann–Kendall (RMK) test were used to identify the trends. Sen’s slope estimator (SSE) was used to estimate the magnitude of the rainfall trend. An autocorrelation function (ACF) plot was used to examine the autocorrelation coefficients at various lags in order to improve the trend analysis by the application of the RMK test. The results indicate remarkable differences with positive and negative trends (significant or non-significant) depending on stations. The largest number of stations showing decreasing trends occurred in March, with 10 out of 18 stations at the 10%, 5%, and 1% levels. Wutai Shan station has strong negative trends in January, March, April, November, and December at the level of 1%. In addition, Wutai Shan station also experienced a significant decreasing trend over four seasons at a significance level of 1% and 10%. On the annual scale, there was no significant trend detected by the three identification methods for most stations. MK and SR tests have similar power for detecting monotonic trends in rainfall time series data. Although similar results were obtained by the MK/SR and RMK tests in this study, in some cases, unreasonable trends may be provided by the RMK test. The findings of this study could benefit agricultural production activities, water supply and management, drought monitoring, and socioeconomic development in Shanxi province in the future.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/9/2335trend analysisnonparametric trend identificationMann–Kendall testSpearman’s Rho testrevised Mann–Kendall test |
| spellingShingle | Feng Gao Yunpeng Wang Xiaoling Chen Wenfu Yang Trend Analysis of Rainfall Time Series in Shanxi Province, Northern China (1957–2019) Water trend analysis nonparametric trend identification Mann–Kendall test Spearman’s Rho test revised Mann–Kendall test |
| title | Trend Analysis of Rainfall Time Series in Shanxi Province, Northern China (1957–2019) |
| title_full | Trend Analysis of Rainfall Time Series in Shanxi Province, Northern China (1957–2019) |
| title_fullStr | Trend Analysis of Rainfall Time Series in Shanxi Province, Northern China (1957–2019) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Trend Analysis of Rainfall Time Series in Shanxi Province, Northern China (1957–2019) |
| title_short | Trend Analysis of Rainfall Time Series in Shanxi Province, Northern China (1957–2019) |
| title_sort | trend analysis of rainfall time series in shanxi province northern china 1957 2019 |
| topic | trend analysis nonparametric trend identification Mann–Kendall test Spearman’s Rho test revised Mann–Kendall test |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/9/2335 |
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