A prediction model of atrial fibrillation recurrence after first catheter ablation by a nomogram: HASBLP score
BackgroundAt present, catheter ablation is an effective method for rhythm control in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, AF recurrence is an inevitable problem after catheter ablation. To identify patients who are prone to relapse, we developed a predictive model that allows clinicians...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcvm.2022.934664/full |
| _version_ | 1811276166946881536 |
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| author | Wenqiang Han Yan Liu Rina Sha Huiyu Liu Aihua Liu Kellina Maduray Junye Ge Chuanzhen Ma Jingquan Zhong Jingquan Zhong |
| author_facet | Wenqiang Han Yan Liu Rina Sha Huiyu Liu Aihua Liu Kellina Maduray Junye Ge Chuanzhen Ma Jingquan Zhong Jingquan Zhong |
| author_sort | Wenqiang Han |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundAt present, catheter ablation is an effective method for rhythm control in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, AF recurrence is an inevitable problem after catheter ablation. To identify patients who are prone to relapse, we developed a predictive model that allows clinicians to closely monitor these patients and treat them with different personalized treatment plans.Materials and methodsA total of 1,065 patients who underwent AF catheter ablation between January 2015 and December 2018 were consecutively included in this study, which examines the results of a 2-year follow-up. Patients with AF were divided into development cohort and validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out on the potential risk factors. Specific risk factors were used to draw the nomogram according to the above results. Finally, we verified the performance of our model compared with CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-Vasc scores by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve and plotted the decision analysis curve (DAC).ResultsA total of 316 patients experienced AF recurrence. After univariate and multivariate analyses, AF history (H), age (A), snoring (S), body mass index (BMI) (B), anteroposterior diameter of left atrial (LA) (L), and persistent AF (P) were included in our prediction model. Our model showed a better performance compared with CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-Vasc scores, and the area under ROC curve (95%CI) was 0.7668 (0.7298–0.8037) vs. 0.6225 (0.5783–0.6666) and 0.6267 (0.5836–0.6717).ConclusionWe established a nomogram (HASBLP score) for predicting AF recurrence after the first catheter ablation at a 2-year follow-up, which can be used as a tool to guide future follow-up of patients. However, its usefulness needs further validation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T23:52:44Z |
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| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2297-055X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T23:52:44Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
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| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-972c556b1d994ff4b81749e1439ae2a52022-12-22T03:11:39ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine2297-055X2022-09-01910.3389/fcvm.2022.934664934664A prediction model of atrial fibrillation recurrence after first catheter ablation by a nomogram: HASBLP scoreWenqiang Han0Yan Liu1Rina Sha2Huiyu Liu3Aihua Liu4Kellina Maduray5Junye Ge6Chuanzhen Ma7Jingquan Zhong8Jingquan Zhong9Department of Cardiology, The Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Remodeling and Function Research, Chinese Ministry of Education, Chinese National Health Commission and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, The State and Shandong Province Joint Key Laboratory of Translational Cardiovascular Medicine, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, The Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Remodeling and Function Research, Chinese Ministry of Education, Chinese National Health Commission and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, The State and Shandong Province Joint Key Laboratory of Translational Cardiovascular Medicine, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, The Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Remodeling and Function Research, Chinese Ministry of Education, Chinese National Health Commission and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, The State and Shandong Province Joint Key Laboratory of Translational Cardiovascular Medicine, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, The Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Remodeling and Function Research, Chinese Ministry of Education, Chinese National Health Commission and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, The State and Shandong Province Joint Key Laboratory of Translational Cardiovascular Medicine, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, The Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Remodeling and Function Research, Chinese Ministry of Education, Chinese National Health Commission and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, The State and Shandong Province Joint Key Laboratory of Translational Cardiovascular Medicine, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, The Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Remodeling and Function Research, Chinese Ministry of Education, Chinese National Health Commission and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, The State and Shandong Province Joint Key Laboratory of Translational Cardiovascular Medicine, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, The Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Remodeling and Function Research, Chinese Ministry of Education, Chinese National Health Commission and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, The State and Shandong Province Joint Key Laboratory of Translational Cardiovascular Medicine, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, The Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Remodeling and Function Research, Chinese Ministry of Education, Chinese National Health Commission and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, The State and Shandong Province Joint Key Laboratory of Translational Cardiovascular Medicine, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, The Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Remodeling and Function Research, Chinese Ministry of Education, Chinese National Health Commission and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, The State and Shandong Province Joint Key Laboratory of Translational Cardiovascular Medicine, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, Qilu Hospital (Qingdao), Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Qingdao, ChinaBackgroundAt present, catheter ablation is an effective method for rhythm control in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, AF recurrence is an inevitable problem after catheter ablation. To identify patients who are prone to relapse, we developed a predictive model that allows clinicians to closely monitor these patients and treat them with different personalized treatment plans.Materials and methodsA total of 1,065 patients who underwent AF catheter ablation between January 2015 and December 2018 were consecutively included in this study, which examines the results of a 2-year follow-up. Patients with AF were divided into development cohort and validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out on the potential risk factors. Specific risk factors were used to draw the nomogram according to the above results. Finally, we verified the performance of our model compared with CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-Vasc scores by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve and plotted the decision analysis curve (DAC).ResultsA total of 316 patients experienced AF recurrence. After univariate and multivariate analyses, AF history (H), age (A), snoring (S), body mass index (BMI) (B), anteroposterior diameter of left atrial (LA) (L), and persistent AF (P) were included in our prediction model. Our model showed a better performance compared with CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-Vasc scores, and the area under ROC curve (95%CI) was 0.7668 (0.7298–0.8037) vs. 0.6225 (0.5783–0.6666) and 0.6267 (0.5836–0.6717).ConclusionWe established a nomogram (HASBLP score) for predicting AF recurrence after the first catheter ablation at a 2-year follow-up, which can be used as a tool to guide future follow-up of patients. However, its usefulness needs further validation.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcvm.2022.934664/fullatrial fibrillationcatheter ablationrecurrenceprediction modelnomogram |
| spellingShingle | Wenqiang Han Yan Liu Rina Sha Huiyu Liu Aihua Liu Kellina Maduray Junye Ge Chuanzhen Ma Jingquan Zhong Jingquan Zhong A prediction model of atrial fibrillation recurrence after first catheter ablation by a nomogram: HASBLP score Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine atrial fibrillation catheter ablation recurrence prediction model nomogram |
| title | A prediction model of atrial fibrillation recurrence after first catheter ablation by a nomogram: HASBLP score |
| title_full | A prediction model of atrial fibrillation recurrence after first catheter ablation by a nomogram: HASBLP score |
| title_fullStr | A prediction model of atrial fibrillation recurrence after first catheter ablation by a nomogram: HASBLP score |
| title_full_unstemmed | A prediction model of atrial fibrillation recurrence after first catheter ablation by a nomogram: HASBLP score |
| title_short | A prediction model of atrial fibrillation recurrence after first catheter ablation by a nomogram: HASBLP score |
| title_sort | prediction model of atrial fibrillation recurrence after first catheter ablation by a nomogram hasblp score |
| topic | atrial fibrillation catheter ablation recurrence prediction model nomogram |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcvm.2022.934664/full |
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