Yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate
Introduction: Yellow fever (YF) is primarily transmitted by Haemagogus species of mosquitoes. Under climate change, mosquitoes and the pathogens that they carry are expected to develop faster, potentially impacting the case count and duration of YF outbreaks. The aim of this study was to determine h...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Infectious Disease Modelling |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042721000312 |
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| author | Tara Sadeghieh Jan M. Sargeant Amy L. Greer Olaf Berke Guillaume Dueymes Philippe Gachon Nicholas H. Ogden Victoria Ng |
| author_facet | Tara Sadeghieh Jan M. Sargeant Amy L. Greer Olaf Berke Guillaume Dueymes Philippe Gachon Nicholas H. Ogden Victoria Ng |
| author_sort | Tara Sadeghieh |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Introduction: Yellow fever (YF) is primarily transmitted by Haemagogus species of mosquitoes. Under climate change, mosquitoes and the pathogens that they carry are expected to develop faster, potentially impacting the case count and duration of YF outbreaks. The aim of this study was to determine how YF virus outbreaks in Brazil may change under future climate, using ensemble simulations from regional climate models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for three time periods: 2011–2040 (short-term), 2041–2070 (mid-term), and 2071–2100 (long-term). Methods: A compartmental model was developed to fit the 2017/18 YF outbreak data in Brazil using least squares optimization. To explore the impact of climate change, temperature-sensitive mosquito parameters were set to change over projected time periods using polynomial equations fitted to their relationship with temperature according to the average temperature for years 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100 for climate change scenarios using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, where RCP4.5/RCP8.5 corresponds to intermediate/high radiative forcing values and to moderate/higher warming trends. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine how the temperature-sensitive parameters impacted model results, and to determine how vaccination could play a role in reducing YF in Brazil. Results: Yellow fever case projections for Brazil from the models varied when climate change scenarios were applied, including the peak clinical case incidence, cumulative clinical case incidence, time to peak incidence, and the outbreak duration. Overall, a decrease in YF cases and outbreak duration was observed. Comparing the observed incidence in 2017/18 to the projected incidence in 2070–2100, for RCP4.5, the cumulative case incidence decreased from 184 to 161, and the outbreak duration decreased from 21 to 20 weeks. For RCP8.5, the peak case incidence decreased from 184 to 147, and the outbreak duration decreased from 21 to 17 weeks. The observed decrease was primarily due to temperature increasing beyond that suitable for Haemagogus mosquito survival. Conclusions: Climate change is anticipated to have an impact on mosquito-borne diseases. We found outbreaks of YF may reduce in intensity as temperatures increase in Brazil; however, temperature is not the only factor involved with disease transmission. Other factors must be explored to determine the attributable impact of climate change on mosquito-borne diseases. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T08:19:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-973d5d3a4a594b54ae014c14cb239d15 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
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| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T08:19:27Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Infectious Disease Modelling |
| spelling | doaj.art-973d5d3a4a594b54ae014c14cb239d152024-04-17T01:58:21ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Infectious Disease Modelling2468-04272021-01-016664677Yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climateTara Sadeghieh0Jan M. Sargeant1Amy L. Greer2Olaf Berke3Guillaume Dueymes4Philippe Gachon5Nicholas H. Ogden6Victoria Ng7Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada; Centre for Public Health and Zoonoses, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada; Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ontario, St. Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada; Corresponding author. University of Guelph, 50 Stone Rd E, Guelph, ON, N1G 2W1, Canada.Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada; Centre for Public Health and Zoonoses, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, CanadaPopulation Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada; Centre for Public Health and Zoonoses, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, CanadaPopulation Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada; Centre for Public Health and Zoonoses, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, CanadaESCER (Étude et Simulation du Climat à l’Échelle Régionale) Centre, Université du Québec à Montréal, Québec, CanadaESCER (Étude et Simulation du Climat à l’Échelle Régionale) Centre, Université du Québec à Montréal, Québec, CanadaPublic Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ontario, St. Hyacinthe, Québec, CanadaPublic Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ontario, St. Hyacinthe, Québec, CanadaIntroduction: Yellow fever (YF) is primarily transmitted by Haemagogus species of mosquitoes. Under climate change, mosquitoes and the pathogens that they carry are expected to develop faster, potentially impacting the case count and duration of YF outbreaks. The aim of this study was to determine how YF virus outbreaks in Brazil may change under future climate, using ensemble simulations from regional climate models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for three time periods: 2011–2040 (short-term), 2041–2070 (mid-term), and 2071–2100 (long-term). Methods: A compartmental model was developed to fit the 2017/18 YF outbreak data in Brazil using least squares optimization. To explore the impact of climate change, temperature-sensitive mosquito parameters were set to change over projected time periods using polynomial equations fitted to their relationship with temperature according to the average temperature for years 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100 for climate change scenarios using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, where RCP4.5/RCP8.5 corresponds to intermediate/high radiative forcing values and to moderate/higher warming trends. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine how the temperature-sensitive parameters impacted model results, and to determine how vaccination could play a role in reducing YF in Brazil. Results: Yellow fever case projections for Brazil from the models varied when climate change scenarios were applied, including the peak clinical case incidence, cumulative clinical case incidence, time to peak incidence, and the outbreak duration. Overall, a decrease in YF cases and outbreak duration was observed. Comparing the observed incidence in 2017/18 to the projected incidence in 2070–2100, for RCP4.5, the cumulative case incidence decreased from 184 to 161, and the outbreak duration decreased from 21 to 20 weeks. For RCP8.5, the peak case incidence decreased from 184 to 147, and the outbreak duration decreased from 21 to 17 weeks. The observed decrease was primarily due to temperature increasing beyond that suitable for Haemagogus mosquito survival. Conclusions: Climate change is anticipated to have an impact on mosquito-borne diseases. We found outbreaks of YF may reduce in intensity as temperatures increase in Brazil; however, temperature is not the only factor involved with disease transmission. Other factors must be explored to determine the attributable impact of climate change on mosquito-borne diseases.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042721000312Yellow feverMosquito-borne diseaseClimate changeInfectious disease modelTemperature |
| spellingShingle | Tara Sadeghieh Jan M. Sargeant Amy L. Greer Olaf Berke Guillaume Dueymes Philippe Gachon Nicholas H. Ogden Victoria Ng Yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate Infectious Disease Modelling Yellow fever Mosquito-borne disease Climate change Infectious disease model Temperature |
| title | Yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate |
| title_full | Yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate |
| title_fullStr | Yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | Yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate |
| title_short | Yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate |
| title_sort | yellow fever virus outbreak in brazil under current and future climate |
| topic | Yellow fever Mosquito-borne disease Climate change Infectious disease model Temperature |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042721000312 |
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