Conspiracy beliefs and perceptual inference in times of political uncertainty
Abstract Sociopolitical crises causing uncertainty have accumulated in recent years, providing fertile ground for the emergence of conspiracy ideations. Computational models constitute valuable tools for understanding the mechanisms at play in the formation and rigidification of these unshakeable be...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2024-04-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-59434-4 |
| _version_ | 1797199484666511360 |
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| author | Salomé Leclercq Sébastien Szaffarczyk Pantelis Leptourgos Pierre Yger Alexandra Fakhri Marielle Wathelet Vincent Bouttier Sophie Denève Renaud Jardri |
| author_facet | Salomé Leclercq Sébastien Szaffarczyk Pantelis Leptourgos Pierre Yger Alexandra Fakhri Marielle Wathelet Vincent Bouttier Sophie Denève Renaud Jardri |
| author_sort | Salomé Leclercq |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Sociopolitical crises causing uncertainty have accumulated in recent years, providing fertile ground for the emergence of conspiracy ideations. Computational models constitute valuable tools for understanding the mechanisms at play in the formation and rigidification of these unshakeable beliefs. Here, the Circular Inference model was used to capture associations between changes in perceptual inference and the dynamics of conspiracy ideations in times of uncertainty. A bistable perception task and conspiracy belief assessment focused on major sociopolitical events were administered to large populations from three polarized countries. We show that when uncertainty peaks, an overweighting of sensory information is associated with conspiracy ideations. Progressively, this exploration strategy gives way to an exploitation strategy in which increased adherence to conspiracy theories is associated with the amplification of prior information. Overall, the Circular Inference model sheds new light on the possible mechanisms underlying the progressive strengthening of conspiracy theories when individuals face highly uncertain situations. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T07:16:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-975339f0bc0341aab4d5aa308abc0079 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T07:16:29Z |
| publishDate | 2024-04-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-975339f0bc0341aab4d5aa308abc00792024-04-21T11:15:49ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-04-0114111410.1038/s41598-024-59434-4Conspiracy beliefs and perceptual inference in times of political uncertaintySalomé Leclercq0Sébastien Szaffarczyk1Pantelis Leptourgos2Pierre Yger3Alexandra Fakhri4Marielle Wathelet5Vincent Bouttier6Sophie Denève7Renaud Jardri8INSERM U1172, CHU Lille, Lille Neuroscience and Cognition Centre, CURE Platform, Fontan Hospital, Lille UniversityINSERM U1172, CHU Lille, Lille Neuroscience and Cognition Centre, CURE Platform, Fontan Hospital, Lille UniversityINSERM U1172, CHU Lille, Lille Neuroscience and Cognition Centre, CURE Platform, Fontan Hospital, Lille UniversityINSERM U1172, CHU Lille, Lille Neuroscience and Cognition Centre, CURE Platform, Fontan Hospital, Lille UniversityOtto-Von-Guericke Universität MagdeburgINSERM U1172, CHU Lille, Lille Neuroscience and Cognition Centre, CURE Platform, Fontan Hospital, Lille UniversityINSERM U1172, CHU Lille, Lille Neuroscience and Cognition Centre, CURE Platform, Fontan Hospital, Lille UniversityLNC, INSERM U-960, Institut de Sciences Cognitives, École Normale SupérieureINSERM U1172, CHU Lille, Lille Neuroscience and Cognition Centre, CURE Platform, Fontan Hospital, Lille UniversityAbstract Sociopolitical crises causing uncertainty have accumulated in recent years, providing fertile ground for the emergence of conspiracy ideations. Computational models constitute valuable tools for understanding the mechanisms at play in the formation and rigidification of these unshakeable beliefs. Here, the Circular Inference model was used to capture associations between changes in perceptual inference and the dynamics of conspiracy ideations in times of uncertainty. A bistable perception task and conspiracy belief assessment focused on major sociopolitical events were administered to large populations from three polarized countries. We show that when uncertainty peaks, an overweighting of sensory information is associated with conspiracy ideations. Progressively, this exploration strategy gives way to an exploitation strategy in which increased adherence to conspiracy theories is associated with the amplification of prior information. Overall, the Circular Inference model sheds new light on the possible mechanisms underlying the progressive strengthening of conspiracy theories when individuals face highly uncertain situations.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-59434-4 |
| spellingShingle | Salomé Leclercq Sébastien Szaffarczyk Pantelis Leptourgos Pierre Yger Alexandra Fakhri Marielle Wathelet Vincent Bouttier Sophie Denève Renaud Jardri Conspiracy beliefs and perceptual inference in times of political uncertainty Scientific Reports |
| title | Conspiracy beliefs and perceptual inference in times of political uncertainty |
| title_full | Conspiracy beliefs and perceptual inference in times of political uncertainty |
| title_fullStr | Conspiracy beliefs and perceptual inference in times of political uncertainty |
| title_full_unstemmed | Conspiracy beliefs and perceptual inference in times of political uncertainty |
| title_short | Conspiracy beliefs and perceptual inference in times of political uncertainty |
| title_sort | conspiracy beliefs and perceptual inference in times of political uncertainty |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-59434-4 |
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