Projecting future HFC-23 emissions
A Reference Case (RC) scenario for emissions of HFC-23 from co-production during HCFC-22 manufacture over the next 25 years is presented. Offered as a template rather than a prediction, this model projects current production practices and existing abatement frameworks to yield insights into how atmo...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2011-12-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/13259/2011/acp-11-13259-2011.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818623512185667584 |
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| author | B. R. Miller L. J. M. Kuijpers |
| author_facet | B. R. Miller L. J. M. Kuijpers |
| author_sort | B. R. Miller |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A Reference Case (RC) scenario for emissions of HFC-23 from co-production during HCFC-22 manufacture over the next 25 years is presented. Offered as a template rather than a prediction, this model projects current production practices and existing abatement frameworks to yield insights into how atmospheric composition and radiative forcing might change with and without additional efforts to constrain HFC-23 emissions. <br></br> Assuming that no additional abatement measures are implemented, emissions for year 2035 in this Reference Case would rise to 24 ktonnes yr<sup>−1</sup>, (cf., 8.6 ktonnes yr<sup>−1</sup> in 2009), the atmospheric abundance of HFC-23 would rise to 50 ppt, which is a 121 % increase over the 2009 observed abundance, and HFC-23 would be expected to contribute a radiative forcing of 9 mW m<sup>−2</sup> (cf., 4 mW m<sup>−2</sup> in 2009). Under such a scenario, the HFC-23 emission growth rate would be a continuation of the historical trend of &sim;0.2 ktonnes yr<sup>−2</sup> until 2030, after which the growth is projected to quadruple as the Montreal Protocol phase-out of HCFC production for dispersive use concludes and HFC-23 thermal decomposition in the projects of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) comes to a scheduled end while growth in the production of HCFC-22 for feedstock use continues to climb with projected GDP growth. <br></br> Two opposite variations regarding the future renewal of CDM projects are examined for their impact on projected emissions and abundance, relative to the Reference Case scenario. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-16T18:42:14Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-97564b6a2f1840d394c78978e8342943 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-16T18:42:14Z |
| publishDate | 2011-12-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-97564b6a2f1840d394c78978e83429432022-12-21T22:21:00ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242011-12-011124132591326710.5194/acp-11-13259-2011Projecting future HFC-23 emissionsB. R. MillerL. J. M. KuijpersA Reference Case (RC) scenario for emissions of HFC-23 from co-production during HCFC-22 manufacture over the next 25 years is presented. Offered as a template rather than a prediction, this model projects current production practices and existing abatement frameworks to yield insights into how atmospheric composition and radiative forcing might change with and without additional efforts to constrain HFC-23 emissions. <br></br> Assuming that no additional abatement measures are implemented, emissions for year 2035 in this Reference Case would rise to 24 ktonnes yr<sup>−1</sup>, (cf., 8.6 ktonnes yr<sup>−1</sup> in 2009), the atmospheric abundance of HFC-23 would rise to 50 ppt, which is a 121 % increase over the 2009 observed abundance, and HFC-23 would be expected to contribute a radiative forcing of 9 mW m<sup>−2</sup> (cf., 4 mW m<sup>−2</sup> in 2009). Under such a scenario, the HFC-23 emission growth rate would be a continuation of the historical trend of &sim;0.2 ktonnes yr<sup>−2</sup> until 2030, after which the growth is projected to quadruple as the Montreal Protocol phase-out of HCFC production for dispersive use concludes and HFC-23 thermal decomposition in the projects of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) comes to a scheduled end while growth in the production of HCFC-22 for feedstock use continues to climb with projected GDP growth. <br></br> Two opposite variations regarding the future renewal of CDM projects are examined for their impact on projected emissions and abundance, relative to the Reference Case scenario.http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/13259/2011/acp-11-13259-2011.pdf |
| spellingShingle | B. R. Miller L. J. M. Kuijpers Projecting future HFC-23 emissions Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | Projecting future HFC-23 emissions |
| title_full | Projecting future HFC-23 emissions |
| title_fullStr | Projecting future HFC-23 emissions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projecting future HFC-23 emissions |
| title_short | Projecting future HFC-23 emissions |
| title_sort | projecting future hfc 23 emissions |
| url | http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/13259/2011/acp-11-13259-2011.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT brmiller projectingfuturehfc23emissions AT ljmkuijpers projectingfuturehfc23emissions |