Estimation of the size of the iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease outbreak associated with cadaveric dura mater grafts in Korea
OBJECTIVES This study estimated the overall incidence of iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (iCJD) based on dura graft cases in Korea using a mathematical model. METHODS We estimated the number of annual dura grafts performed between 1980 and 1995 by applying the proportion of dura grafts recorded...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Korean Society of Epidemiology
2016-12-01
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| Series: | Epidemiology and Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.e-epih.org/upload/pdf/epih-0-e2016059.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818755355228766208 |
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| author | Byoung-Hak Jeon Jinseob Kim Ganghyun Kim Soochul Park SangYun Kim Hae-Kwan Cheong |
| author_facet | Byoung-Hak Jeon Jinseob Kim Ganghyun Kim Soochul Park SangYun Kim Hae-Kwan Cheong |
| author_sort | Byoung-Hak Jeon |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | OBJECTIVES This study estimated the overall incidence of iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (iCJD) based on dura graft cases in Korea using a mathematical model. METHODS We estimated the number of annual dura grafts performed between 1980 and 1995 by applying the proportion of dura grafts recorded by the Health Insurance Review Agency claim dataset in Korea to the number of nationwide neurosurgery cases. The distribution of the incubation period was assumed to fall under a Weibull distribution with density function or a log-logistic distribution with density function. RESULTS The total number of neurosurgery procedures performed from 1980 to 1995 was estimated to be 263,945, and among those operations, 37% used dura graft products. Between the years of 1980 and 2020, our model predicted that the total number of iCJD cases would be between 14.9 and 33.2 (95% confidence interval [CI], 13.4 to 50.9). Notably, we estimated that the cumulative number of iCJD cases caused by dura grafts between 1980 and 2011 was approximately 13.3 to 27.3 (95% CI, 12.2 to 40.6). CONCLUSIONS Based on our model, we postulate that the incidence of iCJD will sharply decline from 2012 to 2020. However, additional new cases are still expected, which necessitates a strong national surveillance system. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-18T05:37:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-977f88dac0694029bdbfda282764d0fb |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2092-7193 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-18T05:37:50Z |
| publishDate | 2016-12-01 |
| publisher | Korean Society of Epidemiology |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Epidemiology and Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-977f88dac0694029bdbfda282764d0fb2022-12-21T21:19:15ZengKorean Society of EpidemiologyEpidemiology and Health2092-71932016-12-013810.4178/epih.e2016059884Estimation of the size of the iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease outbreak associated with cadaveric dura mater grafts in KoreaByoung-Hak Jeon0Jinseob Kim1Ganghyun Kim2Soochul Park3SangYun Kim4Hae-Kwan Cheong5 Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea Department of Preventive Medicine, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea Department of Neurosurgery, National Medical Center, Seoul, Korea Department of Neurology, Yonsei University of College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea Department of Neurology, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, Korea Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Suwon, KoreaOBJECTIVES This study estimated the overall incidence of iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (iCJD) based on dura graft cases in Korea using a mathematical model. METHODS We estimated the number of annual dura grafts performed between 1980 and 1995 by applying the proportion of dura grafts recorded by the Health Insurance Review Agency claim dataset in Korea to the number of nationwide neurosurgery cases. The distribution of the incubation period was assumed to fall under a Weibull distribution with density function or a log-logistic distribution with density function. RESULTS The total number of neurosurgery procedures performed from 1980 to 1995 was estimated to be 263,945, and among those operations, 37% used dura graft products. Between the years of 1980 and 2020, our model predicted that the total number of iCJD cases would be between 14.9 and 33.2 (95% confidence interval [CI], 13.4 to 50.9). Notably, we estimated that the cumulative number of iCJD cases caused by dura grafts between 1980 and 2011 was approximately 13.3 to 27.3 (95% CI, 12.2 to 40.6). CONCLUSIONS Based on our model, we postulate that the incidence of iCJD will sharply decline from 2012 to 2020. However, additional new cases are still expected, which necessitates a strong national surveillance system.http://www.e-epih.org/upload/pdf/epih-0-e2016059.pdfPrion diseasesCreutzfeldt-Jakob diseaseDura materModelingSurveillanceIncubation periodPrediction |
| spellingShingle | Byoung-Hak Jeon Jinseob Kim Ganghyun Kim Soochul Park SangYun Kim Hae-Kwan Cheong Estimation of the size of the iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease outbreak associated with cadaveric dura mater grafts in Korea Epidemiology and Health Prion diseases Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease Dura mater Modeling Surveillance Incubation period Prediction |
| title | Estimation of the size of the iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease outbreak associated with cadaveric dura mater grafts in Korea |
| title_full | Estimation of the size of the iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease outbreak associated with cadaveric dura mater grafts in Korea |
| title_fullStr | Estimation of the size of the iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease outbreak associated with cadaveric dura mater grafts in Korea |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimation of the size of the iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease outbreak associated with cadaveric dura mater grafts in Korea |
| title_short | Estimation of the size of the iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease outbreak associated with cadaveric dura mater grafts in Korea |
| title_sort | estimation of the size of the iatrogenic creutzfeldt jakob disease outbreak associated with cadaveric dura mater grafts in korea |
| topic | Prion diseases Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease Dura mater Modeling Surveillance Incubation period Prediction |
| url | http://www.e-epih.org/upload/pdf/epih-0-e2016059.pdf |
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