Identification and Validation of a Novel Nomogram Predicting 7-day Death in Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage
Background: Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is a serious brain condition with high mortality and disability rates. In recent decades, several risk factors related to death risk have been identified, with several models predicting mortality, but rarely used and accepted in daily clinical practice. Ai...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Galenos Publishing House
2022-05-01
|
| Series: | Balkan Medical Journal |
| Online Access: | http://www.balkanmedicaljournal.org/abstract.php?lang=en&id=2392 |
| _version_ | 1828018187878268928 |
|---|---|
| author | Qian Han Zhengyao Zuo Dongpo Su Xiaozhuo Liu Mingming Fan Qing Wang Mei Li Tong Chen |
| author_facet | Qian Han Zhengyao Zuo Dongpo Su Xiaozhuo Liu Mingming Fan Qing Wang Mei Li Tong Chen |
| author_sort | Qian Han |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is a serious brain condition with high mortality and disability rates. In recent decades, several risk factors related to death risk have been identified, with several models predicting mortality, but rarely used and accepted in daily clinical practice.
Aims: To establish and validate a predictive nomogram of spontaneous ICH death that can be used to predict patient death within 7 days.
Study Design: Cohort study.
Methods: A cohort of 449 patients with ICH, diagnosed clinically from January 2015 to December 2017, were identified as the model training cohort. Univariate analysis and least absolute contraction and selection operator (Lasso) regression were used to determine the most powerful predictors of patients with ICH. Discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability were used to assess the function of the new nomogram. In external validation, we also evaluated the nomogram in another 148 subjects (validation cohort) examined between January and December 2018.
Results: We observed no significant differences in patient baseline characteristics in the training and validation cohorts, including sex, age, Glasgow coma scale (GCS) score, and one-week mortality rates. The model included three predictive variables from univariate and multivariate analysis, including GCS scores, hematoma volume, and brainstem hemorrhage (BSH). Internal validation revealed that the nomogram had a good discrimination, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.935, and calibration was good (U = -0.004, P = 0.801). Similarly, this nomogram also showed good differentiation ability (AUC = 0.925) and good accuracy (U = -0.007, P = 0.241) in the validation cohort data. Decision curve analysis indicated that the new prediction model was helpful.
Conclusion: At the early stages of the condition, our prediction model accurately predicts the death of patients with ICH. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T11:00:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-97a3615fdf55465ea22f34b154f4df75 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2146-3123 2146-3131 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T11:00:06Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | Galenos Publishing House |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Balkan Medical Journal |
| spelling | doaj.art-97a3615fdf55465ea22f34b154f4df752023-02-15T16:19:45ZengGalenos Publishing HouseBalkan Medical Journal2146-31232146-31312022-05-0139318719210.4274/balkanmedj.galenos.2022.2021-10-113Identification and Validation of a Novel Nomogram Predicting 7-day Death in Patients with Intracerebral HemorrhageQian Han0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0685-2741Zhengyao Zuo1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4716-5243Dongpo Su2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5560-8174Xiaozhuo Liu3https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4479-3156Mingming Fan4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2451-4319Qing Wang5https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5310-5792Mei Li 6https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4082-0113Tong Chen7https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0250-227XNorth China University of Science and Technology Affiliated Hospital North China University of Science and Technology Affiliated Hospital, Hebei, China #Contributed equallyNorth China University of Science and Technology Affiliated Hospital North China University of Science and Technology Affiliated Hospital, Hebei, China #Contributed equally.North China University of Science and Technology Affiliated Hospital North China University of Science and Technology Affiliated Hospital, Hebei, China #Contributed equally.North China University of Science and Technology Affiliated Hospital North China University of Science and Technology Affiliated Hospital, Hebei, China #Contributed equally.North China University of Science and Technology Affiliated Hospital North China University of Science and Technology Affiliated Hospital, Hebei, China #Contributed equally.North China University of Science and Technology Affiliated Hospital North China University of Science and Technology Affiliated Hospital, Hebei, China #Contributed equally.North China University of Science and Technology Affiliated Hospital North China University of Science and Technology Affiliated Hospital, Hebei, China #Contributed equally.North China University of Science and Technology Affiliated Hospital North China University of Science and Technology Affiliated Hospital, Hebei, China #Contributed equally.Background: Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is a serious brain condition with high mortality and disability rates. In recent decades, several risk factors related to death risk have been identified, with several models predicting mortality, but rarely used and accepted in daily clinical practice. Aims: To establish and validate a predictive nomogram of spontaneous ICH death that can be used to predict patient death within 7 days. Study Design: Cohort study. Methods: A cohort of 449 patients with ICH, diagnosed clinically from January 2015 to December 2017, were identified as the model training cohort. Univariate analysis and least absolute contraction and selection operator (Lasso) regression were used to determine the most powerful predictors of patients with ICH. Discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability were used to assess the function of the new nomogram. In external validation, we also evaluated the nomogram in another 148 subjects (validation cohort) examined between January and December 2018. Results: We observed no significant differences in patient baseline characteristics in the training and validation cohorts, including sex, age, Glasgow coma scale (GCS) score, and one-week mortality rates. The model included three predictive variables from univariate and multivariate analysis, including GCS scores, hematoma volume, and brainstem hemorrhage (BSH). Internal validation revealed that the nomogram had a good discrimination, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.935, and calibration was good (U = -0.004, P = 0.801). Similarly, this nomogram also showed good differentiation ability (AUC = 0.925) and good accuracy (U = -0.007, P = 0.241) in the validation cohort data. Decision curve analysis indicated that the new prediction model was helpful. Conclusion: At the early stages of the condition, our prediction model accurately predicts the death of patients with ICH.http://www.balkanmedicaljournal.org/abstract.php?lang=en&id=2392 |
| spellingShingle | Qian Han Zhengyao Zuo Dongpo Su Xiaozhuo Liu Mingming Fan Qing Wang Mei Li Tong Chen Identification and Validation of a Novel Nomogram Predicting 7-day Death in Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage Balkan Medical Journal |
| title | Identification and Validation of a Novel Nomogram Predicting 7-day Death in Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage |
| title_full | Identification and Validation of a Novel Nomogram Predicting 7-day Death in Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage |
| title_fullStr | Identification and Validation of a Novel Nomogram Predicting 7-day Death in Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage |
| title_full_unstemmed | Identification and Validation of a Novel Nomogram Predicting 7-day Death in Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage |
| title_short | Identification and Validation of a Novel Nomogram Predicting 7-day Death in Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage |
| title_sort | identification and validation of a novel nomogram predicting 7 day death in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage |
| url | http://www.balkanmedicaljournal.org/abstract.php?lang=en&id=2392 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT qianhan identificationandvalidationofanovelnomogrampredicting7daydeathinpatientswithintracerebralhemorrhage AT zhengyaozuo identificationandvalidationofanovelnomogrampredicting7daydeathinpatientswithintracerebralhemorrhage AT dongposu identificationandvalidationofanovelnomogrampredicting7daydeathinpatientswithintracerebralhemorrhage AT xiaozhuoliu identificationandvalidationofanovelnomogrampredicting7daydeathinpatientswithintracerebralhemorrhage AT mingmingfan identificationandvalidationofanovelnomogrampredicting7daydeathinpatientswithintracerebralhemorrhage AT qingwang identificationandvalidationofanovelnomogrampredicting7daydeathinpatientswithintracerebralhemorrhage AT meili identificationandvalidationofanovelnomogrampredicting7daydeathinpatientswithintracerebralhemorrhage AT tongchen identificationandvalidationofanovelnomogrampredicting7daydeathinpatientswithintracerebralhemorrhage |