Global surface air temperatures in CMIP6: historical performance and future changes
Surface air temperature outputs from 16 global climate models participating in the sixth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) were used to evaluate agreement with observations over the global land surface for the period 1901–2014. Projections of multi-model mean under four diff...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb051 |
| _version_ | 1797747806889312256 |
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| author | Xuewei Fan Qingyun Duan Chenwei Shen Yi Wu Chang Xing |
| author_facet | Xuewei Fan Qingyun Duan Chenwei Shen Yi Wu Chang Xing |
| author_sort | Xuewei Fan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Surface air temperature outputs from 16 global climate models participating in the sixth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) were used to evaluate agreement with observations over the global land surface for the period 1901–2014. Projections of multi-model mean under four different shared socioeconomic pathways were also examined. The results reveal that the majority of models reasonably capture the dominant features of the spatial variations in observed temperature with a pattern correlation typically greater than 0.98, but with large variability across models and regions. In addition, the CMIP6 mean can capture the trends of global surface temperatures shown by the observational data during 1901–1940 (warming), 1941–1970 (cooling) and 1971–2014 (rapid warming). By the end of the 21st century, the global temperature under different scenarios is projected to increase by 1.18 °C/100 yr (SSP1-2.6), 3.22 °C/100 yr (SSP2-4.5), 5.50 °C/100 yr (SSP3-7.0) and 7.20 °C/100 yr (SSP5-8.5), with greater warming projected over the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere and weaker warming over the tropics and the southern hemisphere. Results of probability density distributions further indicate that large increases in the frequency and magnitude of warm extremes over the global land may occur in the future. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:55:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-97d7edeb291a4a82a104cb45024765ed |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:55:53Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-97d7edeb291a4a82a104cb45024765ed2023-08-09T14:55:35ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-01151010405610.1088/1748-9326/abb051Global surface air temperatures in CMIP6: historical performance and future changesXuewei Fan0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5153-7081Qingyun Duan1Chenwei Shen2Yi Wu3Chang Xing4State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University , Beijing 100875, People’s Republic of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University , Beijing 100875, People’s Republic of China; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University , Beijing 100875, People’s Republic of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University , Beijing 100875, People’s Republic of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University , Beijing 100875, People’s Republic of ChinaSurface air temperature outputs from 16 global climate models participating in the sixth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) were used to evaluate agreement with observations over the global land surface for the period 1901–2014. Projections of multi-model mean under four different shared socioeconomic pathways were also examined. The results reveal that the majority of models reasonably capture the dominant features of the spatial variations in observed temperature with a pattern correlation typically greater than 0.98, but with large variability across models and regions. In addition, the CMIP6 mean can capture the trends of global surface temperatures shown by the observational data during 1901–1940 (warming), 1941–1970 (cooling) and 1971–2014 (rapid warming). By the end of the 21st century, the global temperature under different scenarios is projected to increase by 1.18 °C/100 yr (SSP1-2.6), 3.22 °C/100 yr (SSP2-4.5), 5.50 °C/100 yr (SSP3-7.0) and 7.20 °C/100 yr (SSP5-8.5), with greater warming projected over the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere and weaker warming over the tropics and the southern hemisphere. Results of probability density distributions further indicate that large increases in the frequency and magnitude of warm extremes over the global land may occur in the future.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb051CMIP6global mean temperatureperformanceprojection |
| spellingShingle | Xuewei Fan Qingyun Duan Chenwei Shen Yi Wu Chang Xing Global surface air temperatures in CMIP6: historical performance and future changes Environmental Research Letters CMIP6 global mean temperature performance projection |
| title | Global surface air temperatures in CMIP6: historical performance and future changes |
| title_full | Global surface air temperatures in CMIP6: historical performance and future changes |
| title_fullStr | Global surface air temperatures in CMIP6: historical performance and future changes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global surface air temperatures in CMIP6: historical performance and future changes |
| title_short | Global surface air temperatures in CMIP6: historical performance and future changes |
| title_sort | global surface air temperatures in cmip6 historical performance and future changes |
| topic | CMIP6 global mean temperature performance projection |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb051 |
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