Current and future water balance for coupled human-natural systems – Insights from a glacierized catchment in Peru
Study region: Santa River basin, Peru. Study focus: In the Andes of Peru, climate change and socio-economic development are expected to jeopardize future water availability. However, little is known about the interplay of multiple climatic and non-climatic stressors and related processes driving wat...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581822000763 |
| _version_ | 1811256897628536832 |
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| author | Alina Motschmann Claudia Teutsch Christian Huggel Jochen Seidel Christian D. León Randy Muñoz Jessica Sienel Fabian Drenkhan Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle |
| author_facet | Alina Motschmann Claudia Teutsch Christian Huggel Jochen Seidel Christian D. León Randy Muñoz Jessica Sienel Fabian Drenkhan Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle |
| author_sort | Alina Motschmann |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: Santa River basin, Peru. Study focus: In the Andes of Peru, climate change and socio-economic development are expected to jeopardize future water availability. However, little is known about the interplay of multiple climatic and non-climatic stressors and related processes driving water resource changes. We developed an integrated model that analyzes different trajectories of water availability including hydro-climatic (water supply) and socio-economic (water demand) variables with consistent multi-descriptor future scenarios until 2050. New hydrological insights for the region: At the lower-basin outflow of Condorcerro, mean annual water availability is projected to increase by 10% ± 12% by 2050. This gain is mainly driven by an increase in annual precipitation amounts of about 14% (RCP2.6) and 18% (RCP8.5), respectively, which was computed using a global climate multi-model ensemble. In contrast, mean dry-season water availability is projected to substantially decrease by 33% and 36% ( ± 24%) by 2050, for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. This decline is driven by a combination of diminishing glacier discharge and increasing water demand both of which adopt a major role in the absence of considerable precipitation inputs. These seasonal differences highlight the need to adequately consider spatiotemporal scales within multi-scenario water balance models to support local decision-making. Our results elucidate the need for improvements in water management and infrastructure to counteract diminishing dry-season water availability and to reduce future risks of water scarcity. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T17:48:14Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-97eda282d6e44048a6da580bc4a7fcb4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T17:48:14Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj.art-97eda282d6e44048a6da580bc4a7fcb42022-12-22T03:22:35ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182022-06-0141101063Current and future water balance for coupled human-natural systems – Insights from a glacierized catchment in PeruAlina Motschmann0Claudia Teutsch1Christian Huggel2Jochen Seidel3Christian D. León4Randy Muñoz5Jessica Sienel6Fabian Drenkhan7Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle8Glaciology and Geomorphodynamics, Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Switzerland; Correspondence to: Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057 Zurich, Switzerland.Institute for Modelling Hydraulic and Environmental Systems, University of Stuttgart, GermanyGlaciology and Geomorphodynamics, Department of Geography, University of Zurich, SwitzerlandInstitute for Modelling Hydraulic and Environmental Systems, University of Stuttgart, GermanyCenter for Interdisciplinary Risk and Innovation Studies, University of Stuttgart, GermanyGlaciology and Geomorphodynamics, Department of Geography, University of Zurich, SwitzerlandInstitute for Modelling Hydraulic and Environmental Systems, University of Stuttgart, GermanyGlaciology and Geomorphodynamics, Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Switzerland; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, United KingdomCenter for Interdisciplinary Risk and Innovation Studies, University of Stuttgart, GermanyStudy region: Santa River basin, Peru. Study focus: In the Andes of Peru, climate change and socio-economic development are expected to jeopardize future water availability. However, little is known about the interplay of multiple climatic and non-climatic stressors and related processes driving water resource changes. We developed an integrated model that analyzes different trajectories of water availability including hydro-climatic (water supply) and socio-economic (water demand) variables with consistent multi-descriptor future scenarios until 2050. New hydrological insights for the region: At the lower-basin outflow of Condorcerro, mean annual water availability is projected to increase by 10% ± 12% by 2050. This gain is mainly driven by an increase in annual precipitation amounts of about 14% (RCP2.6) and 18% (RCP8.5), respectively, which was computed using a global climate multi-model ensemble. In contrast, mean dry-season water availability is projected to substantially decrease by 33% and 36% ( ± 24%) by 2050, for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. This decline is driven by a combination of diminishing glacier discharge and increasing water demand both of which adopt a major role in the absence of considerable precipitation inputs. These seasonal differences highlight the need to adequately consider spatiotemporal scales within multi-scenario water balance models to support local decision-making. Our results elucidate the need for improvements in water management and infrastructure to counteract diminishing dry-season water availability and to reduce future risks of water scarcity.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581822000763Water supplyWater demandSocio-hydrologySocio-economic scenariosSanta RiverPeru |
| spellingShingle | Alina Motschmann Claudia Teutsch Christian Huggel Jochen Seidel Christian D. León Randy Muñoz Jessica Sienel Fabian Drenkhan Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle Current and future water balance for coupled human-natural systems – Insights from a glacierized catchment in Peru Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Water supply Water demand Socio-hydrology Socio-economic scenarios Santa River Peru |
| title | Current and future water balance for coupled human-natural systems – Insights from a glacierized catchment in Peru |
| title_full | Current and future water balance for coupled human-natural systems – Insights from a glacierized catchment in Peru |
| title_fullStr | Current and future water balance for coupled human-natural systems – Insights from a glacierized catchment in Peru |
| title_full_unstemmed | Current and future water balance for coupled human-natural systems – Insights from a glacierized catchment in Peru |
| title_short | Current and future water balance for coupled human-natural systems – Insights from a glacierized catchment in Peru |
| title_sort | current and future water balance for coupled human natural systems insights from a glacierized catchment in peru |
| topic | Water supply Water demand Socio-hydrology Socio-economic scenarios Santa River Peru |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581822000763 |
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