Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming
Projections of the response of Sahel rainfall to future global warming diverge significantly. Meanwhile, paleoclimatic records suggest that Sahel rainfall is capable of abrupt transitions in response to gradual forcing. Here we present climate modeling evidence for the possibility of an abrupt i...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2017-07-01
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| Series: | Earth System Dynamics |
| Online Access: | https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/8/495/2017/esd-8-495-2017.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818607704618303488 |
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| author | J. Schewe A. Levermann A. Levermann A. Levermann |
| author_facet | J. Schewe A. Levermann A. Levermann A. Levermann |
| author_sort | J. Schewe |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Projections of the response of Sahel rainfall to future global
warming diverge significantly. Meanwhile, paleoclimatic records suggest that
Sahel rainfall is capable of abrupt transitions in response to gradual
forcing. Here we present climate modeling evidence for the possibility of an
abrupt intensification of Sahel rainfall under future climate change.
Analyzing 30 coupled global climate model simulations, we identify seven
models where central Sahel rainfall increases by 40 to 300 % over the
21st century, owing to a northward expansion of the West
African monsoon domain. Rainfall in these models is non-linearly related to
sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and Mediterranean
moisture source regions, intensifying abruptly beyond a certain SST warming
level. We argue that this behavior is consistent with a self-amplifying
dynamic–thermodynamical feedback, implying that the gradual increase in
oceanic moisture availability under warming could trigger a sudden
intensification of monsoon rainfall far inland of today's core monsoon
region. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-16T14:30:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-983117ef4924401b9d67156847fdc62b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2190-4979 2190-4987 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-16T14:30:59Z |
| publishDate | 2017-07-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth System Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj.art-983117ef4924401b9d67156847fdc62b2022-12-21T22:28:15ZengCopernicus PublicationsEarth System Dynamics2190-49792190-49872017-07-01849550510.5194/esd-8-495-2017Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warmingJ. Schewe0A. Levermann1A. Levermann2A. Levermann3Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, GermanyInstitute of Physics, Potsdam University, Potsdam, GermanyLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, USAProjections of the response of Sahel rainfall to future global warming diverge significantly. Meanwhile, paleoclimatic records suggest that Sahel rainfall is capable of abrupt transitions in response to gradual forcing. Here we present climate modeling evidence for the possibility of an abrupt intensification of Sahel rainfall under future climate change. Analyzing 30 coupled global climate model simulations, we identify seven models where central Sahel rainfall increases by 40 to 300 % over the 21st century, owing to a northward expansion of the West African monsoon domain. Rainfall in these models is non-linearly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and Mediterranean moisture source regions, intensifying abruptly beyond a certain SST warming level. We argue that this behavior is consistent with a self-amplifying dynamic–thermodynamical feedback, implying that the gradual increase in oceanic moisture availability under warming could trigger a sudden intensification of monsoon rainfall far inland of today's core monsoon region.https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/8/495/2017/esd-8-495-2017.pdf |
| spellingShingle | J. Schewe A. Levermann A. Levermann A. Levermann Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming Earth System Dynamics |
| title | Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming |
| title_full | Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming |
| title_fullStr | Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming |
| title_short | Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming |
| title_sort | non linear intensification of sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming |
| url | https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/8/495/2017/esd-8-495-2017.pdf |
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