Intensification characteristics of hydroclimatic extremes in the Asian monsoon region under 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming
<p>Understanding the influence of global warming on regional hydroclimatic extremes is challenging. To reduce the potential risk of extremes under future climate states, assessing the change in extreme climate events is important, especially in Asia, due to spatial variability of climate and i...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2020-12-01
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| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/24/5799/2020/hess-24-5799-2020.pdf |
| Summary: | <p>Understanding the influence of global warming on regional hydroclimatic extremes is challenging. To reduce the potential risk of extremes under future climate states, assessing the change in extreme climate events is important, especially in Asia, due to spatial variability of climate and its seasonal variability. Here, the changes in hydroclimatic extremes are assessed over the Asian monsoon region under global mean temperature warming targets of 1.5 and 2.0 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C above preindustrial levels based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Analyses of the subregions classified using regional climate characteristics are performed based on the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) of five bias-corrected global climate models (GCMs). For runoff extremes, the
hydrologic responses to 1.5 and 2.0 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C global warming targets are
simulated based on the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. Changes
in temperature extremes show increasing warm extremes and decreasing cold
extremes in all climate zones with strong robustness under global warming
conditions. However, the hottest extreme temperatures occur more frequently
in low-latitude regions with tropical climates. Changes in mean annual
precipitation and mean annual runoff and low-runoff extremes represent the large spatial variations with weak robustness based on intermodel
agreements. Global warming is expected to consistently intensify maximum
extreme precipitation events (usually exceeding a 10 % increase in
intensity under 2.0 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C of warming) in all climate zones. The
precipitation change patterns directly contribute to the spatial extent and
magnitude of the high-runoff extremes. Regardless of regional climate characteristics and RCPs, this behavior is expected to be enhanced under the 2.0 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C (compared with the 1.5 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C) warming scenario and increase the likelihood of flood risk (up to 10 %). More importantly, an extra 0.5 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C of global warming under two RCPs will amplify the change in hydroclimatic extremes on temperature, precipitation, and runoff with strong robustness, especially in cold (and polar) climate zones. The
results of this study clearly show the consistent changes in regional
hydroclimatic extremes related to temperature and high precipitation and
suggest that hydroclimatic sensitivities can differ based on regional
climate characteristics and type of extreme variables under warmer conditions over Asia.</p> |
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| ISSN: | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |