The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the Pliocene: results from PlioMIP2
<p>The Maritime Continent (MC) forms the western boundary of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and relatively small changes in this region can impact the climate locally and remotely. In the mid-Piacenzian warm period of the Pliocene (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) atmospheric CO<span class="inlin...
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| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Climate of the Past |
| Online Access: | https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/19/2053/2023/cp-19-2053-2023.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797649166254473216 |
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| author | X. Ren D. J. Lunt E. Hendy A. von der Heydt A. Abe-Ouchi B. Otto-Bliesner C. J. R. Williams C. J. R. Williams C. Stepanek C. Guo D. Chandan G. Lohmann J. C. Tindall L. E. Sohl L. E. Sohl M. A. Chandler M. A. Chandler M. Kageyama M. L. J. Baatsen N. Tan N. Tan Q. Zhang Q. Zhang R. Feng S. Hunter W.-L. Chan W. R. Peltier X. Li X. Li X. Li Y. Kamae Z. Zhang Z. Zhang A. M. Haywood |
| author_facet | X. Ren D. J. Lunt E. Hendy A. von der Heydt A. Abe-Ouchi B. Otto-Bliesner C. J. R. Williams C. J. R. Williams C. Stepanek C. Guo D. Chandan G. Lohmann J. C. Tindall L. E. Sohl L. E. Sohl M. A. Chandler M. A. Chandler M. Kageyama M. L. J. Baatsen N. Tan N. Tan Q. Zhang Q. Zhang R. Feng S. Hunter W.-L. Chan W. R. Peltier X. Li X. Li X. Li Y. Kamae Z. Zhang Z. Zhang A. M. Haywood |
| author_sort | X. Ren |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>The Maritime Continent (MC) forms the western boundary of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and relatively small changes in this region can impact the climate locally and remotely. In the mid-Piacenzian warm period of the Pliocene (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) atmospheric CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> concentrations were <span class="inline-formula">∼</span> 400 ppm, and the subaerial Sunda and Sahul shelves made the land–sea distribution of the MC different to today. Topographic changes and elevated levels of CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span>, combined with other forcings, are therefore expected to have driven a substantial climate signal in the MC region at this time. By using the results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), we study the mean climatic features of the MC in the mPWP and changes in Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) with respect to the preindustrial. Results show a warmer and wetter mPWP climate of the MC and lower sea surface salinity in the surrounding ocean compared with the preindustrial. Furthermore, we quantify the volume transfer through the ITF; although the ITF may be expected to be hindered by the subaerial shelves, 10 out of 15 models show an increased volume transport compared with the preindustrial.</p>
<p>In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models that are present in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean (MCM), which is based on cluster analysis of the individual models. We study the effect that the choice of MCM versus the more traditional analysis of multi-model mean (MMM) and individual models has on the discrepancy between model results and data. We find that models, which reproduce modern MC climate well, are not always good at simulating the mPWP climate anomaly of the MC. By comparing with individual models, the MMM and MCM reproduce the preindustrial sea surface temperature (SST) of the reanalysis better than most individual models and produce less discrepancy with reconstructed sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) than most individual models in the MC. In addition, the clusters reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the MMM, so that the MCM provides us with a new way to explore the results from model ensembles that include similar models.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T15:42:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-986ecfa3dd4e4bd0b0d5f5e8130ffc59 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1814-9324 1814-9332 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T15:42:20Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate of the Past |
| spelling | doaj.art-986ecfa3dd4e4bd0b0d5f5e8130ffc592023-10-26T10:56:21ZengCopernicus PublicationsClimate of the Past1814-93241814-93322023-10-01192053207710.5194/cp-19-2053-2023The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the Pliocene: results from PlioMIP2X. Ren0D. J. Lunt1E. Hendy2A. von der Heydt3A. Abe-Ouchi4B. Otto-Bliesner5C. J. R. Williams6C. J. R. Williams7C. Stepanek8C. Guo9D. Chandan10G. Lohmann11J. C. Tindall12L. E. Sohl13L. E. Sohl14M. A. Chandler15M. A. Chandler16M. Kageyama17M. L. J. Baatsen18N. Tan19N. Tan20Q. Zhang21Q. Zhang22R. Feng23S. Hunter24W.-L. Chan25W. R. Peltier26X. Li27X. Li28X. Li29Y. Kamae30Z. Zhang31Z. Zhang32A. M. Haywood33School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UKSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UKSchool of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UKInstitute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Department of Physics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the NetherlandsAtmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, JapanClimate & Global Change Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USASchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UKNCAS, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UKAlfred-Wegener-Institut – Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar and Meeresforschung (AWI), Bremerhaven, GermanyNorce Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, NorwayDepartment of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, CanadaAlfred-Wegener-Institut – Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar and Meeresforschung (AWI), Bremerhaven, GermanySchool of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds, West Yorkshire, UKCenter for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, USANASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USACenter for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, USANASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USALSCE/IPSL – Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR8212, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ – CE Saclay, L'Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceInstitute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Department of Physics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the NetherlandsKey Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceDepartment of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SwedenBolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SwedenDepartment of Earth Sciences, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USASchool of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds, West Yorkshire, UKAtmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, JapanDepartment of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, CanadaCentre for Severe Weather and Climate and Hydro-geological Hazards, Wuhan, ChinaDepartment of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, ChinaClimate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaFaculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, JapanNorce Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, NorwayDepartment of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, ChinaSchool of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds, West Yorkshire, UK<p>The Maritime Continent (MC) forms the western boundary of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and relatively small changes in this region can impact the climate locally and remotely. In the mid-Piacenzian warm period of the Pliocene (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) atmospheric CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> concentrations were <span class="inline-formula">∼</span> 400 ppm, and the subaerial Sunda and Sahul shelves made the land–sea distribution of the MC different to today. Topographic changes and elevated levels of CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span>, combined with other forcings, are therefore expected to have driven a substantial climate signal in the MC region at this time. By using the results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), we study the mean climatic features of the MC in the mPWP and changes in Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) with respect to the preindustrial. Results show a warmer and wetter mPWP climate of the MC and lower sea surface salinity in the surrounding ocean compared with the preindustrial. Furthermore, we quantify the volume transfer through the ITF; although the ITF may be expected to be hindered by the subaerial shelves, 10 out of 15 models show an increased volume transport compared with the preindustrial.</p> <p>In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models that are present in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean (MCM), which is based on cluster analysis of the individual models. We study the effect that the choice of MCM versus the more traditional analysis of multi-model mean (MMM) and individual models has on the discrepancy between model results and data. We find that models, which reproduce modern MC climate well, are not always good at simulating the mPWP climate anomaly of the MC. By comparing with individual models, the MMM and MCM reproduce the preindustrial sea surface temperature (SST) of the reanalysis better than most individual models and produce less discrepancy with reconstructed sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) than most individual models in the MC. In addition, the clusters reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the MMM, so that the MCM provides us with a new way to explore the results from model ensembles that include similar models.</p>https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/19/2053/2023/cp-19-2053-2023.pdf |
| spellingShingle | X. Ren D. J. Lunt E. Hendy A. von der Heydt A. Abe-Ouchi B. Otto-Bliesner C. J. R. Williams C. J. R. Williams C. Stepanek C. Guo D. Chandan G. Lohmann J. C. Tindall L. E. Sohl L. E. Sohl M. A. Chandler M. A. Chandler M. Kageyama M. L. J. Baatsen N. Tan N. Tan Q. Zhang Q. Zhang R. Feng S. Hunter W.-L. Chan W. R. Peltier X. Li X. Li X. Li Y. Kamae Z. Zhang Z. Zhang A. M. Haywood The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the Pliocene: results from PlioMIP2 Climate of the Past |
| title | The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the Pliocene: results from PlioMIP2 |
| title_full | The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the Pliocene: results from PlioMIP2 |
| title_fullStr | The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the Pliocene: results from PlioMIP2 |
| title_full_unstemmed | The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the Pliocene: results from PlioMIP2 |
| title_short | The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the Pliocene: results from PlioMIP2 |
| title_sort | hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the maritime continent in the pliocene results from pliomip2 |
| url | https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/19/2053/2023/cp-19-2053-2023.pdf |
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