Plausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100
Emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are central to climate change research and policy. Here, we identify subsets of scenarios of the IPCC’s 5th (AR5) and forthcoming 6th (AR6) Assessment Reports, including the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios, that...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebf |
| _version_ | 1797747088395599872 |
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| author | Roger Pielke Jr Matthew G Burgess Justin Ritchie |
| author_facet | Roger Pielke Jr Matthew G Burgess Justin Ritchie |
| author_sort | Roger Pielke Jr |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are central to climate change research and policy. Here, we identify subsets of scenarios of the IPCC’s 5th (AR5) and forthcoming 6th (AR6) Assessment Reports, including the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios, that project 2005–2050 fossil-fuel-and-industry (FFI) CO _2 emissions growth rates most consistent with observations from 2005 to 2020 and International Energy Agency (IEA) projections to 2050. These scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100, with a median of 2.2 °C. The subset of plausible IPCC scenarios does not represent all possible trajectories of future emissions and warming. Collectively, they project continued mitigation progress and suggest the world is presently on a lower emissions trajectory than is often assumed. However, these scenarios also indicate that the world is still off track from limiting 21st-century warming to 1.5 °C or below 2 °C. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:47:11Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-98a9539acc0c4a0e94bd299c6ebdcf64 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:47:11Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-98a9539acc0c4a0e94bd299c6ebdcf642023-08-09T15:24:06ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262022-01-0117202402710.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebfPlausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100Roger Pielke Jr0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9617-8764Matthew G Burgess1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3750-4347Justin Ritchie2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6679-3953Department of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado Boulder , Boulder, CO, 80303, United States of AmericaDepartment of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado Boulder , Boulder, CO, 80303, United States of America; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder , Boulder, CO, 80309, United States of America; Department of Economics, University of Colorado Boulder , Boulder, CO, 80309, United States of AmericaInstitute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia , 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, CanadaEmissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are central to climate change research and policy. Here, we identify subsets of scenarios of the IPCC’s 5th (AR5) and forthcoming 6th (AR6) Assessment Reports, including the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios, that project 2005–2050 fossil-fuel-and-industry (FFI) CO _2 emissions growth rates most consistent with observations from 2005 to 2020 and International Energy Agency (IEA) projections to 2050. These scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100, with a median of 2.2 °C. The subset of plausible IPCC scenarios does not represent all possible trajectories of future emissions and warming. Collectively, they project continued mitigation progress and suggest the world is presently on a lower emissions trajectory than is often assumed. However, these scenarios also indicate that the world is still off track from limiting 21st-century warming to 1.5 °C or below 2 °C.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebfscenariosemissionsprojectionsplausibleclimate |
| spellingShingle | Roger Pielke Jr Matthew G Burgess Justin Ritchie Plausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100 Environmental Research Letters scenarios emissions projections plausible climate |
| title | Plausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100 |
| title_full | Plausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100 |
| title_fullStr | Plausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Plausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100 |
| title_short | Plausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100 |
| title_sort | plausible 2005 2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °c and 3 °c of warming by 2100 |
| topic | scenarios emissions projections plausible climate |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebf |
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