Investigating biodiversity trends in different mitigation scenarios with a national integrated assessment model
ABSTRACTThe inclusion of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in climate mitigation pathways is critical and can be reached by assessing their consequences through the deployment of appropriate indicators to that end. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are important tools for understanding possible...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/1943815X.2023.2239323 |
| _version_ | 1797383136442580992 |
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| author | Ana Carolina Oliveira Fiorini Pedro Rua Rodriguez Rochedo Gerd Angelkorte Fabio A. Diuana Mariana Império Lucas Silva Carvalho Taísa Nogueira Morais Eveline Vasquez-Arroyo Roberto Schaeffer |
| author_facet | Ana Carolina Oliveira Fiorini Pedro Rua Rodriguez Rochedo Gerd Angelkorte Fabio A. Diuana Mariana Império Lucas Silva Carvalho Taísa Nogueira Morais Eveline Vasquez-Arroyo Roberto Schaeffer |
| author_sort | Ana Carolina Oliveira Fiorini |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACTThe inclusion of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in climate mitigation pathways is critical and can be reached by assessing their consequences through the deployment of appropriate indicators to that end. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are important tools for understanding possible impacts caused by adopting new policies. We investigate terrestrial biodiversity trends (life on land: SDG 15) for three different climate mitigation scenarios for Brazil: (1) A scenario compatible with a world that maintains its current policies with current deforestation rates in the Amazon and the Cerrado biomes; (2) A scenario in which Brazil fulfils its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC); and (3) A scenario compatible with a world that limits warming to 1.5°C. We use the Brazilian Land-Use and Energy System model (BLUES), a national IAM, to show the implications of the transitions involved in the above-mentioned scenarios for the country up to 2050. We conduct a post-processing analysis using consolidated biodiversity indicators to emphasize how different IAM greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation solutions present distinct positive and negative potential impacts on biodiversity in Brazil. However, our analysis does not consider the impacts associated with climate change, but only the risks imposed by mitigation policies. Our results indicate that biodiversity loss decreases in the scenarios from (1) to (3), implying that stronger climate change mitigation actions could result in smaller biodiversity losses. We conclude that Brazil has the opportunity to align its biodiversity and climate goals through nature-based solutions (NBS), such as forest conservation, restoration, pasture recovery, and the use of crop-pasture and agroforestry systems. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T21:15:25Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-98f71493caaa46d28970b2c68a32911d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1943-815X 1943-8168 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T21:15:25Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-98f71493caaa46d28970b2c68a32911d2023-12-21T19:45:14ZengTaylor & Francis GroupJournal of Integrative Environmental Sciences1943-815X1943-81682023-12-0120110.1080/1943815X.2023.2239323Investigating biodiversity trends in different mitigation scenarios with a national integrated assessment modelAna Carolina Oliveira Fiorini0Pedro Rua Rodriguez Rochedo1Gerd Angelkorte2Fabio A. Diuana3Mariana Império4Lucas Silva Carvalho5Taísa Nogueira Morais6Eveline Vasquez-Arroyo7Roberto Schaeffer8Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Programme (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal Do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, BrazilCentre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Programme (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal Do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, BrazilCentre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Programme (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal Do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, BrazilCentre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Programme (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal Do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, BrazilCentre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Programme (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal Do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, BrazilCentre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Programme (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal Do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, BrazilCentre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Programme (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal Do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, BrazilCentre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Programme (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal Do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, BrazilCentre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Programme (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal Do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, BrazilABSTRACTThe inclusion of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in climate mitigation pathways is critical and can be reached by assessing their consequences through the deployment of appropriate indicators to that end. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are important tools for understanding possible impacts caused by adopting new policies. We investigate terrestrial biodiversity trends (life on land: SDG 15) for three different climate mitigation scenarios for Brazil: (1) A scenario compatible with a world that maintains its current policies with current deforestation rates in the Amazon and the Cerrado biomes; (2) A scenario in which Brazil fulfils its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC); and (3) A scenario compatible with a world that limits warming to 1.5°C. We use the Brazilian Land-Use and Energy System model (BLUES), a national IAM, to show the implications of the transitions involved in the above-mentioned scenarios for the country up to 2050. We conduct a post-processing analysis using consolidated biodiversity indicators to emphasize how different IAM greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation solutions present distinct positive and negative potential impacts on biodiversity in Brazil. However, our analysis does not consider the impacts associated with climate change, but only the risks imposed by mitigation policies. Our results indicate that biodiversity loss decreases in the scenarios from (1) to (3), implying that stronger climate change mitigation actions could result in smaller biodiversity losses. We conclude that Brazil has the opportunity to align its biodiversity and climate goals through nature-based solutions (NBS), such as forest conservation, restoration, pasture recovery, and the use of crop-pasture and agroforestry systems.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/1943815X.2023.2239323Integrated assessment modelsbiodiversityclimate mitigationland-useland-coverSDG |
| spellingShingle | Ana Carolina Oliveira Fiorini Pedro Rua Rodriguez Rochedo Gerd Angelkorte Fabio A. Diuana Mariana Império Lucas Silva Carvalho Taísa Nogueira Morais Eveline Vasquez-Arroyo Roberto Schaeffer Investigating biodiversity trends in different mitigation scenarios with a national integrated assessment model Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences Integrated assessment models biodiversity climate mitigation land-use land-cover SDG |
| title | Investigating biodiversity trends in different mitigation scenarios with a national integrated assessment model |
| title_full | Investigating biodiversity trends in different mitigation scenarios with a national integrated assessment model |
| title_fullStr | Investigating biodiversity trends in different mitigation scenarios with a national integrated assessment model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Investigating biodiversity trends in different mitigation scenarios with a national integrated assessment model |
| title_short | Investigating biodiversity trends in different mitigation scenarios with a national integrated assessment model |
| title_sort | investigating biodiversity trends in different mitigation scenarios with a national integrated assessment model |
| topic | Integrated assessment models biodiversity climate mitigation land-use land-cover SDG |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/1943815X.2023.2239323 |
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