Numerical-model-derived intensity–duration thresholds for early warning of rainfall-induced debris flows in a Himalayan catchment
<p>Debris flows triggered by rainfall are catastrophic geohazards that occur compounded during extreme events. Few early warning systems for shallow landslides and debris flows at the territorial scale use thresholds of rainfall intensity–duration (ID). ID thresholds are mostly defined using h...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2024-02-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/24/465/2024/nhess-24-465-2024.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797315399171178496 |
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| author | S. Dixit S. Siva Subramanian P. Srivastava A. P. Yunus T. R. Martha S. Sen |
| author_facet | S. Dixit S. Siva Subramanian P. Srivastava A. P. Yunus T. R. Martha S. Sen |
| author_sort | S. Dixit |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Debris flows triggered by rainfall are catastrophic geohazards that occur compounded during extreme events. Few early warning systems for shallow landslides and debris flows at the territorial scale use thresholds of rainfall intensity–duration (ID). ID thresholds are mostly defined using hourly rainfall. Due to instrumental and operational challenges, current early warning systems have difficulty forecasting sub-daily time series of weather for landslides in the Himalayas. Here, we present a framework that employs a spatio-temporal numerical model preceded by the Weather Research And Forecast (WRF) Model for analysing debris flows induced by rainfall. The WRF model runs at 1.8 km <span class="inline-formula">×</span> 1.8 km resolution to produce hourly rainfall. The hourly rainfall is then used as an input boundary condition in the spatio-temporal numerical model for debris flows. The debris flow model is an updated version of <span class="cit" id="xref_text.1"><a href="#bib1.bibx85">Van Asch et al.</a> (<a href="#bib1.bibx85">2014</a>)</span> in which sensitivity to volumetric water content, moisture-content-dependent hydraulic conductivity, and seepage routines are introduced within the governing equations. The spatio-temporal numerical model of debris flows is first calibrated for the mass movements in the Kedarnath catchment that occurred during the 2013 North India floods. Various precipitation intensities based on the glossary of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) are set, and parametric numerical simulations are run identifying ID thresholds of debris flows. Our findings suggest that the WRF model combined with the debris flow numerical model shall be used to establish ID thresholds in territorial landslide early warning systems (Te-LEWSs).</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T03:00:16Z |
| format | Article |
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| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T03:00:16Z |
| publishDate | 2024-02-01 |
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| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-997f2b9e9ab246c2a0c32cae8a5e60672024-02-13T11:01:14ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812024-02-012446548010.5194/nhess-24-465-2024Numerical-model-derived intensity–duration thresholds for early warning of rainfall-induced debris flows in a Himalayan catchmentS. Dixit0S. Siva Subramanian1P. Srivastava2A. P. Yunus3T. R. Martha4S. Sen5Centre of Excellence in Disaster Mitigation and Management, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, 247667, Uttarakhand, IndiaCentre of Excellence in Disaster Mitigation and Management, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, 247667, Uttarakhand, IndiaCentre of Excellence in Disaster Mitigation and Management, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, 247667, Uttarakhand, IndiaDepartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Mohali, 140306, Punjab, IndiaNational Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC), Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), Department of Space, Government of India, Balanagar, 500037, Hyderabad, Telangana, IndiaCentre of Excellence in Disaster Mitigation and Management, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, 247667, Uttarakhand, India<p>Debris flows triggered by rainfall are catastrophic geohazards that occur compounded during extreme events. Few early warning systems for shallow landslides and debris flows at the territorial scale use thresholds of rainfall intensity–duration (ID). ID thresholds are mostly defined using hourly rainfall. Due to instrumental and operational challenges, current early warning systems have difficulty forecasting sub-daily time series of weather for landslides in the Himalayas. Here, we present a framework that employs a spatio-temporal numerical model preceded by the Weather Research And Forecast (WRF) Model for analysing debris flows induced by rainfall. The WRF model runs at 1.8 km <span class="inline-formula">×</span> 1.8 km resolution to produce hourly rainfall. The hourly rainfall is then used as an input boundary condition in the spatio-temporal numerical model for debris flows. The debris flow model is an updated version of <span class="cit" id="xref_text.1"><a href="#bib1.bibx85">Van Asch et al.</a> (<a href="#bib1.bibx85">2014</a>)</span> in which sensitivity to volumetric water content, moisture-content-dependent hydraulic conductivity, and seepage routines are introduced within the governing equations. The spatio-temporal numerical model of debris flows is first calibrated for the mass movements in the Kedarnath catchment that occurred during the 2013 North India floods. Various precipitation intensities based on the glossary of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) are set, and parametric numerical simulations are run identifying ID thresholds of debris flows. Our findings suggest that the WRF model combined with the debris flow numerical model shall be used to establish ID thresholds in territorial landslide early warning systems (Te-LEWSs).</p>https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/24/465/2024/nhess-24-465-2024.pdf |
| spellingShingle | S. Dixit S. Siva Subramanian P. Srivastava A. P. Yunus T. R. Martha S. Sen Numerical-model-derived intensity–duration thresholds for early warning of rainfall-induced debris flows in a Himalayan catchment Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Numerical-model-derived intensity–duration thresholds for early warning of rainfall-induced debris flows in a Himalayan catchment |
| title_full | Numerical-model-derived intensity–duration thresholds for early warning of rainfall-induced debris flows in a Himalayan catchment |
| title_fullStr | Numerical-model-derived intensity–duration thresholds for early warning of rainfall-induced debris flows in a Himalayan catchment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Numerical-model-derived intensity–duration thresholds for early warning of rainfall-induced debris flows in a Himalayan catchment |
| title_short | Numerical-model-derived intensity–duration thresholds for early warning of rainfall-induced debris flows in a Himalayan catchment |
| title_sort | numerical model derived intensity duration thresholds for early warning of rainfall induced debris flows in a himalayan catchment |
| url | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/24/465/2024/nhess-24-465-2024.pdf |
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