Multi-hazard exposure mapping under climate crisis using random forest algorithm for the Kalimantan Islands, Indonesia
Abstract Numerous natural disasters that threaten people’s lives and property occur in Indonesia. Climate change-induced temperature increases are expected to affect the frequency of natural hazards in the future and pose more risks. This study examines the consequences of droughts and forest fires...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-08-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-40106-8 |
| _version_ | 1797453290069295104 |
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| author | Sujung Heo Sangjin Park Dong Kun Lee |
| author_facet | Sujung Heo Sangjin Park Dong Kun Lee |
| author_sort | Sujung Heo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Numerous natural disasters that threaten people’s lives and property occur in Indonesia. Climate change-induced temperature increases are expected to affect the frequency of natural hazards in the future and pose more risks. This study examines the consequences of droughts and forest fires on the Indonesian island of Kalimantan. We first create maps showing the eleven contributing factors that have the greatest impact on forest fires and droughts related to the climate, topography, anthropogenic, and vegetation. Next, we used RF to create single and multi-risk maps for forest fires and droughts in Kalimantan Island. Finally, using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) integrated evaluation model, a future climate scenario was applied to predict multiple risk maps for RCP-SSP2-4.5 and RCP-SSP5-8.5 in 2040–2059 and 2080–2099. The probability of a 22.6% drought and a 21.7% forest fire were anticipated to have an influence on the study’s findings, and 2.6% of the sites looked at were predicted to be affected by both hazards. Both RCP-SSP2-4.5 and RCP-SSP5-8.5 have an increase in these hazards projected for them. Researchers and stakeholders may use these findings to assess risks under various mitigation strategies and estimate the spatial behavior of such forest fire and drought occurrences. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T15:20:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-99f960b4248946968f8ec26972d36dc1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T15:20:41Z |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-99f960b4248946968f8ec26972d36dc12023-11-26T12:51:12ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222023-08-0113111310.1038/s41598-023-40106-8Multi-hazard exposure mapping under climate crisis using random forest algorithm for the Kalimantan Islands, IndonesiaSujung Heo0Sangjin Park1Dong Kun Lee2Interdisciplinary Program and Life Science, Seoul National UniversityKorea Institute of Public AdministrationInterdisciplinary Program and Life Science, Seoul National UniversityAbstract Numerous natural disasters that threaten people’s lives and property occur in Indonesia. Climate change-induced temperature increases are expected to affect the frequency of natural hazards in the future and pose more risks. This study examines the consequences of droughts and forest fires on the Indonesian island of Kalimantan. We first create maps showing the eleven contributing factors that have the greatest impact on forest fires and droughts related to the climate, topography, anthropogenic, and vegetation. Next, we used RF to create single and multi-risk maps for forest fires and droughts in Kalimantan Island. Finally, using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) integrated evaluation model, a future climate scenario was applied to predict multiple risk maps for RCP-SSP2-4.5 and RCP-SSP5-8.5 in 2040–2059 and 2080–2099. The probability of a 22.6% drought and a 21.7% forest fire were anticipated to have an influence on the study’s findings, and 2.6% of the sites looked at were predicted to be affected by both hazards. Both RCP-SSP2-4.5 and RCP-SSP5-8.5 have an increase in these hazards projected for them. Researchers and stakeholders may use these findings to assess risks under various mitigation strategies and estimate the spatial behavior of such forest fire and drought occurrences.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-40106-8 |
| spellingShingle | Sujung Heo Sangjin Park Dong Kun Lee Multi-hazard exposure mapping under climate crisis using random forest algorithm for the Kalimantan Islands, Indonesia Scientific Reports |
| title | Multi-hazard exposure mapping under climate crisis using random forest algorithm for the Kalimantan Islands, Indonesia |
| title_full | Multi-hazard exposure mapping under climate crisis using random forest algorithm for the Kalimantan Islands, Indonesia |
| title_fullStr | Multi-hazard exposure mapping under climate crisis using random forest algorithm for the Kalimantan Islands, Indonesia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multi-hazard exposure mapping under climate crisis using random forest algorithm for the Kalimantan Islands, Indonesia |
| title_short | Multi-hazard exposure mapping under climate crisis using random forest algorithm for the Kalimantan Islands, Indonesia |
| title_sort | multi hazard exposure mapping under climate crisis using random forest algorithm for the kalimantan islands indonesia |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-40106-8 |
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