| Summary: | In the current complex and uncertainty of the risk of COVID-19 in long-term care facilities, the elderly in the long-term care facilities are at the highest risk of being affected by COVID-19. There is still uncertain relationship between the identification of this risk and the care management, caring behavior, cannot achieve management optimization. Matrix analysis the change relation between the conditions for the COVID-19 risk identification and risk behavior. The results show that there are N equilibrium points for the risk management of COVID-19 in long-term care facilities. The complexity of the risk of COVID-19 in long-term care facilities and the cognitive deviations caused by the limited rationality of managers and caregivers make the COVID-19, the risk early warning system is not easy to converge to a stable point in the real environment, so as to achieve the best management status of the COVID-19 risk in long-term care facilities. Nursing staff behavior, risk management cost, risk loss and other parameters have different risk management effects for the COVID-19. When the selected parameter is adjusted through the threshold, reflects the stability and selection tendency of the COVID-19 risk management strategy. Promote institutional managers and caregivers to adopt active risk management strategies: Strengthen the awareness of institutional managers and caregivers about the complexity and uncertainty of risks; Optimize the COVID-19 risk management system, process and procedures; Strengthen the research on risk accidents, serious consequences and effective prevention of COVID-19; Strengthen the review and supervision of the risk management of COVID-19 and improve its value perception of the effective prevention of the risk of COVID-19.
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