Assessing the effectiveness and the economic impact of evacuation: the case of the island of Vulcano, Italy
<p>Evacuation planning and management represent a key aspect of volcanic crises because they can increase people's protection as well as minimize potential impacts on the economy, properties and infrastructure of the affected area. We present an agent-based simulation tool that assesses t...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2022-04-01
|
| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1083/2022/nhess-22-1083-2022.pdf |
| Summary: | <p>Evacuation planning and management represent a key aspect of volcanic
crises because they can increase people's protection as well as minimize
potential impacts on the economy, properties and infrastructure of the
affected area. We present an agent-based simulation tool that assesses the
effectiveness of different evacuation scenarios using the small island of
Vulcano (southern Italy) as a case study. Simulation results show that the
overall time needed to evacuate people should be analysed together with the
percentage of people evacuated as a function of time and that a simultaneous
evacuation on Vulcano is more efficient than a staged evacuation. For
example, during the touristic (high) season between July and August, even
though the overall duration is similar for both evacuation strategies, after
<span class="inline-formula">∼</span> 6 h about 96 % of people would be evacuated with a
simultaneous evacuation, while only 86 % would be evacuated with a staged
evacuation. We also present a model to assess the economic impact of
evacuation as a function of evacuation duration and of the starting period with
respect to the touristic season. It reveals that if an evacuation lasting 3 to 6 months was initiated at the beginning or at the end of the touristic
season (i.e. June or November), it would cause a very different economic
impact on the tourism industry (about 78 %–88 % and 2 %–7 % of the total
annual turnover, respectively). Our results show how the assessment of
evacuation scenarios that consider human and economic impact carried out in
a pre-disaster context helps authorities develop evacuation plans and make
informed decisions outside the highly stressful time period that
characterizes crises.</p> |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |