Can Environmental Conditions at North Atlantic Deep-Sea Habitats Be Predicted Several Years Ahead? ——Taking Sponge Habitats as an Example
Predicting the ambient environmental conditions in the coming several years to one decade is of key relevance for elucidating how deep-sea habitats, like for example sponge habitats, in the North Atlantic will evolve under near-future climate change. However, it is still not well known to what exten...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2021-10-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Marine Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.703297/full |
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| author | Feifei Liu Ute Daewel Annette Samuelsen Sebastian Brune Ulrike Hanz Ulrike Hanz Holger Pohlmann Johanna Baehr Corinna Schrum Corinna Schrum |
| author_facet | Feifei Liu Ute Daewel Annette Samuelsen Sebastian Brune Ulrike Hanz Ulrike Hanz Holger Pohlmann Johanna Baehr Corinna Schrum Corinna Schrum |
| author_sort | Feifei Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Predicting the ambient environmental conditions in the coming several years to one decade is of key relevance for elucidating how deep-sea habitats, like for example sponge habitats, in the North Atlantic will evolve under near-future climate change. However, it is still not well known to what extent the deep-sea environmental properties can be predicted in advance. A regional downscaling prediction system is developed to assess the potential predictability of the North Atlantic deep-sea environmental factors. The large-scale climate variability predicted with the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model with low-resolution configuration (MPI-ESM-LR) is dynamically downscaled to the North Atlantic by providing surface and lateral boundary conditions to the regional coupled physical-ecosystem model HYCOM-ECOSMO. Model results of two physical fields (temperature and salinity) and two biogeochemical fields (concentrations of silicate and oxygen) over 21 sponge habitats are taken as an example to assess the ability of the downscaling system to predict the interannual to decadal variations of the environmental properties based on ensembles of retrospective predictions over the period from 1985 to 2014. The ensemble simulations reveal skillful predictions of the environmental conditions several years in advance with distinct regional differences. In areas closely tied to large-scale climate variability and ice dynamics, both the physical and biogeochemical fields can be skillfully predicted more than 4 years ahead, while in areas under strong influence of upper oceans or open boundaries, the predictive skill for both fields is limited to a maximum of 2 years. The simulations suggest higher predictability for the biogeochemical fields than for the physical fields, which can be partly attributed to the longer persistence of the former fields. Predictability is improved by initialization in areas away from the influence of Mediterranean outflow and areas with weak coupling between the upper and deep oceans. Our study highlights the ability of the downscaling regional system to predict the environmental variations at deep-sea benthic habitats on time scales of management relevance. The downscaling system therefore will be an important part of an integrated approach towards the preservation and sustainable exploitation of the North Atlantic benthic habitats. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-18T01:16:26Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9a8149bf96d3491eb204d06256b23771 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-7745 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-18T01:16:26Z |
| publishDate | 2021-10-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Marine Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-9a8149bf96d3491eb204d06256b237712022-12-21T21:25:57ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Marine Science2296-77452021-10-01810.3389/fmars.2021.703297703297Can Environmental Conditions at North Atlantic Deep-Sea Habitats Be Predicted Several Years Ahead? ——Taking Sponge Habitats as an ExampleFeifei Liu0Ute Daewel1Annette Samuelsen2Sebastian Brune3Ulrike Hanz4Ulrike Hanz5Holger Pohlmann6Johanna Baehr7Corinna Schrum8Corinna Schrum9Institute of Coastal Systems-Analysis and Modeling, Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Geesthacht, GermanyInstitute of Coastal Systems-Analysis and Modeling, Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Geesthacht, GermanyNansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, NorwayInstitute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, GermanyAlfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, GermanyRoyal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), Texel, NetherlandsMax Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, GermanyInstitute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, GermanyInstitute of Coastal Systems-Analysis and Modeling, Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Geesthacht, GermanyInstitute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, GermanyPredicting the ambient environmental conditions in the coming several years to one decade is of key relevance for elucidating how deep-sea habitats, like for example sponge habitats, in the North Atlantic will evolve under near-future climate change. However, it is still not well known to what extent the deep-sea environmental properties can be predicted in advance. A regional downscaling prediction system is developed to assess the potential predictability of the North Atlantic deep-sea environmental factors. The large-scale climate variability predicted with the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model with low-resolution configuration (MPI-ESM-LR) is dynamically downscaled to the North Atlantic by providing surface and lateral boundary conditions to the regional coupled physical-ecosystem model HYCOM-ECOSMO. Model results of two physical fields (temperature and salinity) and two biogeochemical fields (concentrations of silicate and oxygen) over 21 sponge habitats are taken as an example to assess the ability of the downscaling system to predict the interannual to decadal variations of the environmental properties based on ensembles of retrospective predictions over the period from 1985 to 2014. The ensemble simulations reveal skillful predictions of the environmental conditions several years in advance with distinct regional differences. In areas closely tied to large-scale climate variability and ice dynamics, both the physical and biogeochemical fields can be skillfully predicted more than 4 years ahead, while in areas under strong influence of upper oceans or open boundaries, the predictive skill for both fields is limited to a maximum of 2 years. The simulations suggest higher predictability for the biogeochemical fields than for the physical fields, which can be partly attributed to the longer persistence of the former fields. Predictability is improved by initialization in areas away from the influence of Mediterranean outflow and areas with weak coupling between the upper and deep oceans. Our study highlights the ability of the downscaling regional system to predict the environmental variations at deep-sea benthic habitats on time scales of management relevance. The downscaling system therefore will be an important part of an integrated approach towards the preservation and sustainable exploitation of the North Atlantic benthic habitats.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.703297/fullsponge habitatdeep-seapredictabilityregional downscaling predictioninterannual to decadal variabilityenvironmental conditions |
| spellingShingle | Feifei Liu Ute Daewel Annette Samuelsen Sebastian Brune Ulrike Hanz Ulrike Hanz Holger Pohlmann Johanna Baehr Corinna Schrum Corinna Schrum Can Environmental Conditions at North Atlantic Deep-Sea Habitats Be Predicted Several Years Ahead? ——Taking Sponge Habitats as an Example Frontiers in Marine Science sponge habitat deep-sea predictability regional downscaling prediction interannual to decadal variability environmental conditions |
| title | Can Environmental Conditions at North Atlantic Deep-Sea Habitats Be Predicted Several Years Ahead? ——Taking Sponge Habitats as an Example |
| title_full | Can Environmental Conditions at North Atlantic Deep-Sea Habitats Be Predicted Several Years Ahead? ——Taking Sponge Habitats as an Example |
| title_fullStr | Can Environmental Conditions at North Atlantic Deep-Sea Habitats Be Predicted Several Years Ahead? ——Taking Sponge Habitats as an Example |
| title_full_unstemmed | Can Environmental Conditions at North Atlantic Deep-Sea Habitats Be Predicted Several Years Ahead? ——Taking Sponge Habitats as an Example |
| title_short | Can Environmental Conditions at North Atlantic Deep-Sea Habitats Be Predicted Several Years Ahead? ——Taking Sponge Habitats as an Example |
| title_sort | can environmental conditions at north atlantic deep sea habitats be predicted several years ahead taking sponge habitats as an example |
| topic | sponge habitat deep-sea predictability regional downscaling prediction interannual to decadal variability environmental conditions |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.703297/full |
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