Time-to-Failure Forecast for Corroded Shell of Above-Ground Steel Tank Used to Store Liquid Fuels
An original simplified procedure to estimate the remaining service time of corroded shell of an on-the-ground steel tank used to store liquid fuels is presented in this paper. Current corrosion progress trend, identified a’posteriori based on the obligatory technical condition monitoring, is extrapo...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Polish Academy of Sciences
2021-03-01
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| Series: | Archives of Civil Engineering |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://journals.pan.pl/Content/119583/PDF/18.ACE-00130_B5.pdf |
| _version_ | 1798040810211508224 |
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| author | Mariusz Maslak Michał Pazdanowski |
| author_facet | Mariusz Maslak Michał Pazdanowski |
| author_sort | Mariusz Maslak |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | An original simplified procedure to estimate the remaining service time of corroded shell of an on-the-ground steel tank used to store liquid fuels is presented in this paper. Current corrosion progress trend, identified a’posteriori based on the obligatory technical condition monitoring, is extrapolated to the future tank service time under the assumption that the conditions of service would not change and no renovation or modernization works would be undertaken. Failure probability understood as exhaustion of the capability to safely resist the loads applied due to the corrosion progress constitutes the measure of the sought uptime. For comparative purposes several effective inference methods have been proposed for the same input data, based on formally qualitatively different but corresponding description measures. It has been shown, that in the analysis of this type the representative values, usually expressed as quantiles of probability distributions describing random variables in use, need not be specified to verify the safety condition. The proposed algorithm is based on fully probabilistic considerations, and those, according to Authors’ opinion, by their nature lead to more reliable, and at the same time, objective estimates. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T22:12:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9a922e04415942f79e993d2003257a4a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2300-3103 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T22:12:47Z |
| publishDate | 2021-03-01 |
| publisher | Polish Academy of Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Archives of Civil Engineering |
| spelling | doaj.art-9a922e04415942f79e993d2003257a4a2022-12-22T04:00:30ZengPolish Academy of SciencesArchives of Civil Engineering2300-31032021-03-01vol. 67No 1303322https://doi.org/10.24425/ace.2021.136475Time-to-Failure Forecast for Corroded Shell of Above-Ground Steel Tank Used to Store Liquid FuelsMariusz Maslak0Michał Pazdanowski1Cracow University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Warszawska 24, 31-155 Cracow, PolandCracow University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Warszawska 24, 31-155 Cracow, PolandAn original simplified procedure to estimate the remaining service time of corroded shell of an on-the-ground steel tank used to store liquid fuels is presented in this paper. Current corrosion progress trend, identified a’posteriori based on the obligatory technical condition monitoring, is extrapolated to the future tank service time under the assumption that the conditions of service would not change and no renovation or modernization works would be undertaken. Failure probability understood as exhaustion of the capability to safely resist the loads applied due to the corrosion progress constitutes the measure of the sought uptime. For comparative purposes several effective inference methods have been proposed for the same input data, based on formally qualitatively different but corresponding description measures. It has been shown, that in the analysis of this type the representative values, usually expressed as quantiles of probability distributions describing random variables in use, need not be specified to verify the safety condition. The proposed algorithm is based on fully probabilistic considerations, and those, according to Authors’ opinion, by their nature lead to more reliable, and at the same time, objective estimates.https://journals.pan.pl/Content/119583/PDF/18.ACE-00130_B5.pdfsteel tankcorroded shellfailure probabilitydurability predictiontime-to-failure forecastremaining service time |
| spellingShingle | Mariusz Maslak Michał Pazdanowski Time-to-Failure Forecast for Corroded Shell of Above-Ground Steel Tank Used to Store Liquid Fuels Archives of Civil Engineering steel tank corroded shell failure probability durability prediction time-to-failure forecast remaining service time |
| title | Time-to-Failure Forecast for Corroded Shell of Above-Ground Steel Tank Used to Store Liquid Fuels |
| title_full | Time-to-Failure Forecast for Corroded Shell of Above-Ground Steel Tank Used to Store Liquid Fuels |
| title_fullStr | Time-to-Failure Forecast for Corroded Shell of Above-Ground Steel Tank Used to Store Liquid Fuels |
| title_full_unstemmed | Time-to-Failure Forecast for Corroded Shell of Above-Ground Steel Tank Used to Store Liquid Fuels |
| title_short | Time-to-Failure Forecast for Corroded Shell of Above-Ground Steel Tank Used to Store Liquid Fuels |
| title_sort | time to failure forecast for corroded shell of above ground steel tank used to store liquid fuels |
| topic | steel tank corroded shell failure probability durability prediction time-to-failure forecast remaining service time |
| url | https://journals.pan.pl/Content/119583/PDF/18.ACE-00130_B5.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mariuszmaslak timetofailureforecastforcorrodedshellofabovegroundsteeltankusedtostoreliquidfuels AT michałpazdanowski timetofailureforecastforcorrodedshellofabovegroundsteeltankusedtostoreliquidfuels |