Estimating the population exposed to a risk factor over a time window: A microsimulation modelling approach from the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates of the Work-related Burden of Disease and Injury.
<h4>Objectives</h4>Burden of disease estimation commonly requires estimates of the population exposed to a risk factor over a time window (yeart to yeart+n). We present a microsimulation modelling approach for producing such estimates and apply it to calculate the population exposed to l...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2022-01-01
|
| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0278507 |
| _version_ | 1811158925884522496 |
|---|---|
| author | Bálint Náfrádi Hannah Kiiver Subas Neupane Natalie C Momen Kai N Streicher Frank Pega |
| author_facet | Bálint Náfrádi Hannah Kiiver Subas Neupane Natalie C Momen Kai N Streicher Frank Pega |
| author_sort | Bálint Náfrádi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <h4>Objectives</h4>Burden of disease estimation commonly requires estimates of the population exposed to a risk factor over a time window (yeart to yeart+n). We present a microsimulation modelling approach for producing such estimates and apply it to calculate the population exposed to long working hours for one country (Italy).<h4>Methods</h4>We developed a three-model approach: Model 1, a multilevel model, estimates exposure to the risk factor at the first year of the time window (yeart). Model 2, a regression model, estimates transition probabilities between exposure categories during the time window (yeart to yeart+n). Model 3, a microsimulation model, estimates the exposed population over the time window, using the Monte Carlo method. The microsimulation is carried out in three steps: (a) a representative synthetic population is initiated in the first year of the time window using prevalence estimates from Model 1, (b) the exposed population is simulated over the time window using the transition probabilities from Model 2; and (c) the population is censored for deaths during the time window.<h4>Results</h4>We estimated the population exposed to long working hours (i.e. 41-48, 49-54 and ≥55 hours/week) over a 10-year time window (2002-11) in Italy. We populated all three models with official data from Labour Force Surveys, United Nations population estimates and World Health Organization life tables. Estimates were produced of populations exposed over the time window, disaggregated by sex and 5-year age group.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Our modelling approach for estimating the population exposed to a risk factor over a time window is simple, versatile, and flexible. It however requires longitudinal exposure data and Model 3 (the microsimulation model) is stochastic. The approach can improve accuracy and transparency in exposure and burden of disease estimations. To improve the approach, a logical next step is changing Model 3 to a deterministic microsimulation method, such as modelling of microflows. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T05:32:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9aa57f9cc08c4594a4a26ac1a34c35f6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T05:32:34Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-9aa57f9cc08c4594a4a26ac1a34c35f62023-03-07T05:31:29ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032022-01-011712e027850710.1371/journal.pone.0278507Estimating the population exposed to a risk factor over a time window: A microsimulation modelling approach from the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates of the Work-related Burden of Disease and Injury.Bálint NáfrádiHannah KiiverSubas NeupaneNatalie C MomenKai N StreicherFrank Pega<h4>Objectives</h4>Burden of disease estimation commonly requires estimates of the population exposed to a risk factor over a time window (yeart to yeart+n). We present a microsimulation modelling approach for producing such estimates and apply it to calculate the population exposed to long working hours for one country (Italy).<h4>Methods</h4>We developed a three-model approach: Model 1, a multilevel model, estimates exposure to the risk factor at the first year of the time window (yeart). Model 2, a regression model, estimates transition probabilities between exposure categories during the time window (yeart to yeart+n). Model 3, a microsimulation model, estimates the exposed population over the time window, using the Monte Carlo method. The microsimulation is carried out in three steps: (a) a representative synthetic population is initiated in the first year of the time window using prevalence estimates from Model 1, (b) the exposed population is simulated over the time window using the transition probabilities from Model 2; and (c) the population is censored for deaths during the time window.<h4>Results</h4>We estimated the population exposed to long working hours (i.e. 41-48, 49-54 and ≥55 hours/week) over a 10-year time window (2002-11) in Italy. We populated all three models with official data from Labour Force Surveys, United Nations population estimates and World Health Organization life tables. Estimates were produced of populations exposed over the time window, disaggregated by sex and 5-year age group.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Our modelling approach for estimating the population exposed to a risk factor over a time window is simple, versatile, and flexible. It however requires longitudinal exposure data and Model 3 (the microsimulation model) is stochastic. The approach can improve accuracy and transparency in exposure and burden of disease estimations. To improve the approach, a logical next step is changing Model 3 to a deterministic microsimulation method, such as modelling of microflows.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0278507 |
| spellingShingle | Bálint Náfrádi Hannah Kiiver Subas Neupane Natalie C Momen Kai N Streicher Frank Pega Estimating the population exposed to a risk factor over a time window: A microsimulation modelling approach from the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates of the Work-related Burden of Disease and Injury. PLoS ONE |
| title | Estimating the population exposed to a risk factor over a time window: A microsimulation modelling approach from the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates of the Work-related Burden of Disease and Injury. |
| title_full | Estimating the population exposed to a risk factor over a time window: A microsimulation modelling approach from the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates of the Work-related Burden of Disease and Injury. |
| title_fullStr | Estimating the population exposed to a risk factor over a time window: A microsimulation modelling approach from the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates of the Work-related Burden of Disease and Injury. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating the population exposed to a risk factor over a time window: A microsimulation modelling approach from the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates of the Work-related Burden of Disease and Injury. |
| title_short | Estimating the population exposed to a risk factor over a time window: A microsimulation modelling approach from the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates of the Work-related Burden of Disease and Injury. |
| title_sort | estimating the population exposed to a risk factor over a time window a microsimulation modelling approach from the who ilo joint estimates of the work related burden of disease and injury |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0278507 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT balintnafradi estimatingthepopulationexposedtoariskfactoroveratimewindowamicrosimulationmodellingapproachfromthewhoilojointestimatesoftheworkrelatedburdenofdiseaseandinjury AT hannahkiiver estimatingthepopulationexposedtoariskfactoroveratimewindowamicrosimulationmodellingapproachfromthewhoilojointestimatesoftheworkrelatedburdenofdiseaseandinjury AT subasneupane estimatingthepopulationexposedtoariskfactoroveratimewindowamicrosimulationmodellingapproachfromthewhoilojointestimatesoftheworkrelatedburdenofdiseaseandinjury AT nataliecmomen estimatingthepopulationexposedtoariskfactoroveratimewindowamicrosimulationmodellingapproachfromthewhoilojointestimatesoftheworkrelatedburdenofdiseaseandinjury AT kainstreicher estimatingthepopulationexposedtoariskfactoroveratimewindowamicrosimulationmodellingapproachfromthewhoilojointestimatesoftheworkrelatedburdenofdiseaseandinjury AT frankpega estimatingthepopulationexposedtoariskfactoroveratimewindowamicrosimulationmodellingapproachfromthewhoilojointestimatesoftheworkrelatedburdenofdiseaseandinjury |