Still no compelling evidence that Americans overestimate upward socio-economic mobility rates: Reply to Davidai and Gilovich (2018)
Davidai and Gilovich (2018) contend that (a) Americans tend to think about their nation's income distribution in terms of quintiles (fifths), and (b) when Americans' perceptions of socio-economic mobility rates are measured properly (e.g., by asking online survey respondents to guess upwar...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge University Press
2018-05-01
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| Series: | Judgment and Decision Making |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journal.sjdm.org/17/17911br/jdm17911br.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797706731843747840 |
|---|---|
| author | Sondre S. Nero Lawton K. Swan John R. Chambers |
| author_facet | Sondre S. Nero Lawton K. Swan John R. Chambers |
| author_sort | Sondre S. Nero |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Davidai and
Gilovich (2018) contend that (a) Americans tend to think about their nation's
income distribution in terms of quintiles (fifths), and (b) when Americans'
perceptions of socio-economic mobility rates are measured properly (e.g., by
asking online survey respondents to guess upward-mobility rates across
quintiles), a trend of overestimation (too much optimism concerning the number
of people who manage to transcend poverty) will emerge. In this reply, we hail
Davidai and Gilovich's new data as novel, important, and relevant to the former
(a), but we doubt that they can support the latter (b) claim about
population-level (in)accuracy. Namely, we note that even if mobility-rate
perceptions could be measured perfectly, inferences about the accuracy of those
perceptions still depend on a particular comparator—a point-estimate of the
"true" rate of upward social mobility in the U.S. against which survey
respondents' guesses are evaluated—that is itself an error-prone estimate.
Applying different established comparators to survey respondents' guesses
changes both the direction and magnitude of previously observed overestimation
effects. We conclude with a challenge: researchers who wish to compute the
average distance between socio-economic perceptions and socio-economic reality
must first select and justify a fair comparator. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T05:55:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9ad1ebc0a995409d9580e9fe0af3abcf |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1930-2975 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T05:55:41Z |
| publishDate | 2018-05-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Judgment and Decision Making |
| spelling | doaj.art-9ad1ebc0a995409d9580e9fe0af3abcf2023-09-03T04:37:25ZengCambridge University PressJudgment and Decision Making1930-29752018-05-01133305308Still no compelling evidence that Americans overestimate upward socio-economic mobility rates: Reply to Davidai and Gilovich (2018)Sondre S. NeroLawton K. SwanJohn R. ChambersDavidai and Gilovich (2018) contend that (a) Americans tend to think about their nation's income distribution in terms of quintiles (fifths), and (b) when Americans' perceptions of socio-economic mobility rates are measured properly (e.g., by asking online survey respondents to guess upward-mobility rates across quintiles), a trend of overestimation (too much optimism concerning the number of people who manage to transcend poverty) will emerge. In this reply, we hail Davidai and Gilovich's new data as novel, important, and relevant to the former (a), but we doubt that they can support the latter (b) claim about population-level (in)accuracy. Namely, we note that even if mobility-rate perceptions could be measured perfectly, inferences about the accuracy of those perceptions still depend on a particular comparator—a point-estimate of the "true" rate of upward social mobility in the U.S. against which survey respondents' guesses are evaluated—that is itself an error-prone estimate. Applying different established comparators to survey respondents' guesses changes both the direction and magnitude of previously observed overestimation effects. We conclude with a challenge: researchers who wish to compute the average distance between socio-economic perceptions and socio-economic reality must first select and justify a fair comparator.http://journal.sjdm.org/17/17911br/jdm17911br.pdfsocial mobility inequality political ideology lay beliefs.NAKeywords |
| spellingShingle | Sondre S. Nero Lawton K. Swan John R. Chambers Still no compelling evidence that Americans overestimate upward socio-economic mobility rates: Reply to Davidai and Gilovich (2018) Judgment and Decision Making social mobility inequality political ideology lay beliefs.NAKeywords |
| title | Still no compelling
evidence that Americans overestimate upward socio-economic mobility rates:
Reply to Davidai and Gilovich (2018) |
| title_full | Still no compelling
evidence that Americans overestimate upward socio-economic mobility rates:
Reply to Davidai and Gilovich (2018) |
| title_fullStr | Still no compelling
evidence that Americans overestimate upward socio-economic mobility rates:
Reply to Davidai and Gilovich (2018) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Still no compelling
evidence that Americans overestimate upward socio-economic mobility rates:
Reply to Davidai and Gilovich (2018) |
| title_short | Still no compelling
evidence that Americans overestimate upward socio-economic mobility rates:
Reply to Davidai and Gilovich (2018) |
| title_sort | still no compelling evidence that americans overestimate upward socio economic mobility rates reply to davidai and gilovich 2018 |
| topic | social mobility inequality political ideology lay beliefs.NAKeywords |
| url | http://journal.sjdm.org/17/17911br/jdm17911br.pdf |
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