Historically grounded spatial population projections for the continental United States
Large-scale spatial population projections are of growing importance to the global change community. Spatial settlement patterns are a key determinant of vulnerability to climate-related hazards as well as to land-use and its consequences for habitat, energy use, and emissions of greenhouse gases an...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2013-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044021 |
| _version_ | 1827870685330931712 |
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| author | Bryan Jones Brian C O’Neill |
| author_facet | Bryan Jones Brian C O’Neill |
| author_sort | Bryan Jones |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Large-scale spatial population projections are of growing importance to the global change community. Spatial settlement patterns are a key determinant of vulnerability to climate-related hazards as well as to land-use and its consequences for habitat, energy use, and emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. Few projections exist of spatial distribution at national or larger scales, and while recent efforts improve on earlier approaches that simply scaled or extrapolated existing spatial patterns, important methodological shortcomings remain and models have not been calibrated to nor validated against historical trends. Here we present spatially explicit 100-year projections for the continental United States consistent with two different scenarios of possible socio-economic development. The projections are based on a new model that is calibrated to observed changes in regional population distribution since 1950, corrects for distorting effects at borders, and employs a spatial mask for designating protected or uninhabitable land. Using new metrics for comparing spatial outcomes, we find that our projections anticipate more moderate trends in urban expansion and coastal settlement than widely used existing projections. We also find that differences in outcomes across models are much larger than differences across alternative socio-economic scenarios for a given model, emphasizing the importance of better understanding of methods of spatial population projection for improved integrated assessments of social and environmental change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:59:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9b5de960191d4fadb4130693237a0ade |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:59:47Z |
| publishDate | 2013-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-9b5de960191d4fadb4130693237a0ade2023-08-09T14:40:33ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262013-01-018404402110.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044021Historically grounded spatial population projections for the continental United StatesBryan Jones0Brian C O’Neill1Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Integrated Science Program, National Center for Atmospheric Research , PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, USAClimate and Global Dynamics Division, Integrated Science Program, National Center for Atmospheric Research , PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, USALarge-scale spatial population projections are of growing importance to the global change community. Spatial settlement patterns are a key determinant of vulnerability to climate-related hazards as well as to land-use and its consequences for habitat, energy use, and emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. Few projections exist of spatial distribution at national or larger scales, and while recent efforts improve on earlier approaches that simply scaled or extrapolated existing spatial patterns, important methodological shortcomings remain and models have not been calibrated to nor validated against historical trends. Here we present spatially explicit 100-year projections for the continental United States consistent with two different scenarios of possible socio-economic development. The projections are based on a new model that is calibrated to observed changes in regional population distribution since 1950, corrects for distorting effects at borders, and employs a spatial mask for designating protected or uninhabitable land. Using new metrics for comparing spatial outcomes, we find that our projections anticipate more moderate trends in urban expansion and coastal settlement than widely used existing projections. We also find that differences in outcomes across models are much larger than differences across alternative socio-economic scenarios for a given model, emphasizing the importance of better understanding of methods of spatial population projection for improved integrated assessments of social and environmental change.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044021spatial populationpopulation projectionsgravity modelUnited States |
| spellingShingle | Bryan Jones Brian C O’Neill Historically grounded spatial population projections for the continental United States Environmental Research Letters spatial population population projections gravity model United States |
| title | Historically grounded spatial population projections for the continental United States |
| title_full | Historically grounded spatial population projections for the continental United States |
| title_fullStr | Historically grounded spatial population projections for the continental United States |
| title_full_unstemmed | Historically grounded spatial population projections for the continental United States |
| title_short | Historically grounded spatial population projections for the continental United States |
| title_sort | historically grounded spatial population projections for the continental united states |
| topic | spatial population population projections gravity model United States |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044021 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT bryanjones historicallygroundedspatialpopulationprojectionsforthecontinentalunitedstates AT brianconeill historicallygroundedspatialpopulationprojectionsforthecontinentalunitedstates |