Statistical Modeling and Applications of Joint Distributions for Significant Wave Height, Spectral Peak Period, and Peak Direction of Propagation: A Case Study in the Norwegian Sea

The estimation of long-term extreme response is a crucial task in the design of marine structures. The target extreme responses are typically defined by annual exceedance probabilities of 10<sup>−2</sup> and 10<sup>−4</sup>. Various approaches can be employed for this purpose...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Clarissa Pires Vieira Serta, Sverre Haver, Lin Li
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2023-12-01
Series:Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/11/12/2372
Description
Summary:The estimation of long-term extreme response is a crucial task in the design of marine structures. The target extreme responses are typically defined by annual exceedance probabilities of 10<sup>−2</sup> and 10<sup>−4</sup>. Various approaches can be employed for this purpose, with preference given to statistical long-term analysis, which involves aggregating the exceedance probabilities of all potential sea states contributing to the exceedance of the target extremes. A joint model encompassing important metocean parameters such as wind, waves, and current is often necessary. This study specifically focuses on waves and wave-induced responses. In characterizing short-term sea state conditions, significant wave height (<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>H</mi><mi>s</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>), spectral peak period (<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>T</mi><mi>p</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>) and peak direction of propagation (<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi mathvariant="sans-serif">Φ</mi><mi>p</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>) are identified as the most important sea state characteristics. The objective of this work is to present the results of the joint model for the three sea state parameters, i.e., <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>H</mi><mi>s</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>T</mi><mi>p</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi mathvariant="sans-serif">Φ</mi><mi>p</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>, at an offshore site in the Norwegian Sea. The conditional modeling approach is applied using long-term hindcast data, and different statistical models are discussed for fitting the marginal and conditional distributions. The fitted parameters for all directional sectors are provided, offering a comprehensive representation of the joint model for direct use in long-term response analysis. Two case studies are included to illustrate the application of the fitted joint model in long-term response analyses. The case studies identify the governing wave directions and the most important combinations of short-term sea state characteristics regarding the estimation of long-term extreme responses.
ISSN:2077-1312