Development and validation of prognostic nomograms for patients with metastatic small bowel adenocarcinoma: a retrospective cohort study
Abstract We aimed to explore factors associated with prognosis in patients with metastatic small bowel adenocarcinoma (SBA) as well as to develop and validate nomograms to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). Relevant information of patients diagnosed between 2004 and 20...
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| Format: | Article |
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Nature Portfolio
2022-04-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09986-0 |
| _version_ | 1831840054726623232 |
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| author | Hanlong Zhu Si Zhao Tianming Zhao Kang Jiang Lin Miao Mingzuo Jiang Fangyu Wang |
| author_facet | Hanlong Zhu Si Zhao Tianming Zhao Kang Jiang Lin Miao Mingzuo Jiang Fangyu Wang |
| author_sort | Hanlong Zhu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract We aimed to explore factors associated with prognosis in patients with metastatic small bowel adenocarcinoma (SBA) as well as to develop and validate nomograms to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). Relevant information of patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2016 was extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Nomograms for predicting 1- and 3-year OS and CSS were established with potential risk factors screened from multivariate cox regression analysis. The discrimination and accuracy of the nomograms were assessed by concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, and the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). In total, 373 SBA patients with M1 category were enrolled. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, size and grade of primary tumor, primary tumor surgery, and chemotherapy were significant variables associated with OS and CSS. The C-index values of the nomogram for OS were 0.715 and 0.687 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. For CSS, it was 0.711 and 0.690, respectively. Through AUC, decision curve analysis (DCA) and calibration plots, the nomograms displayed satisfactory prognostic predicted ability and clinical application both in the OS and CSS. Our models could be served as a reliable tool for prognostic evaluation of patients with metastatic SBA, which are favorable in facilitating individualized survival predictions and clinical decision-making. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-23T06:04:15Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9c334f9ae52d46448e60f8822bbe2e18 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-23T06:04:15Z |
| publishDate | 2022-04-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-9c334f9ae52d46448e60f8822bbe2e182022-12-21T17:57:36ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222022-04-0112111410.1038/s41598-022-09986-0Development and validation of prognostic nomograms for patients with metastatic small bowel adenocarcinoma: a retrospective cohort studyHanlong Zhu0Si Zhao1Tianming Zhao2Kang Jiang3Lin Miao4Mingzuo Jiang5Fangyu Wang6Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Affiliated Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing UniversityDepartment of Gastroenterology, Affiliated Drum Tower Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing UniversityDepartment of Gastroenterology, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Science and Peking Union Medical CollegeDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Affiliated Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing UniversityMedical Centre for Digestive Diseases, Second Affiliated Hospital, Nanjing Medical UniversityDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Affiliated Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing UniversityDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Affiliated Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing UniversityAbstract We aimed to explore factors associated with prognosis in patients with metastatic small bowel adenocarcinoma (SBA) as well as to develop and validate nomograms to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). Relevant information of patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2016 was extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Nomograms for predicting 1- and 3-year OS and CSS were established with potential risk factors screened from multivariate cox regression analysis. The discrimination and accuracy of the nomograms were assessed by concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, and the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). In total, 373 SBA patients with M1 category were enrolled. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, size and grade of primary tumor, primary tumor surgery, and chemotherapy were significant variables associated with OS and CSS. The C-index values of the nomogram for OS were 0.715 and 0.687 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. For CSS, it was 0.711 and 0.690, respectively. Through AUC, decision curve analysis (DCA) and calibration plots, the nomograms displayed satisfactory prognostic predicted ability and clinical application both in the OS and CSS. Our models could be served as a reliable tool for prognostic evaluation of patients with metastatic SBA, which are favorable in facilitating individualized survival predictions and clinical decision-making.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09986-0 |
| spellingShingle | Hanlong Zhu Si Zhao Tianming Zhao Kang Jiang Lin Miao Mingzuo Jiang Fangyu Wang Development and validation of prognostic nomograms for patients with metastatic small bowel adenocarcinoma: a retrospective cohort study Scientific Reports |
| title | Development and validation of prognostic nomograms for patients with metastatic small bowel adenocarcinoma: a retrospective cohort study |
| title_full | Development and validation of prognostic nomograms for patients with metastatic small bowel adenocarcinoma: a retrospective cohort study |
| title_fullStr | Development and validation of prognostic nomograms for patients with metastatic small bowel adenocarcinoma: a retrospective cohort study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and validation of prognostic nomograms for patients with metastatic small bowel adenocarcinoma: a retrospective cohort study |
| title_short | Development and validation of prognostic nomograms for patients with metastatic small bowel adenocarcinoma: a retrospective cohort study |
| title_sort | development and validation of prognostic nomograms for patients with metastatic small bowel adenocarcinoma a retrospective cohort study |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09986-0 |
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