Extreme sea level implications of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C temperature stabilization targets in the 21st and 22nd centuries
Sea-level rise (SLR) is magnifying the frequency and severity of extreme sea levels (ESLs) that can cause coastal flooding. The rate and amount of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise is a function of the trajectory of global mean surface temperature (GMST). Therefore, temperature stabilization targets...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaac87 |
| _version_ | 1797748292325474304 |
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| author | D J Rasmussen Klaus Bittermann Maya K Buchanan Scott Kulp Benjamin H Strauss Robert E Kopp Michael Oppenheimer |
| author_facet | D J Rasmussen Klaus Bittermann Maya K Buchanan Scott Kulp Benjamin H Strauss Robert E Kopp Michael Oppenheimer |
| author_sort | D J Rasmussen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Sea-level rise (SLR) is magnifying the frequency and severity of extreme sea levels (ESLs) that can cause coastal flooding. The rate and amount of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise is a function of the trajectory of global mean surface temperature (GMST). Therefore, temperature stabilization targets (e.g. 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C of warming above pre-industrial levels, as from the Paris Agreement) have important implications for coastal flood risk. Here, we assess, in a global network of tide gauges, the differences in the expected frequencies of ESLs between scenarios that stabilize GMST warming at 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We employ probabilistic, localized SLR projections and long-term hourly tide gauge records to estimate the expected frequencies of historical and future ESLs for the 21st and 22nd centuries. By 2100, under 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C GMST stabilization, the median GMSL is projected to rise 48 cm (90% probability of 28–82 cm), 56 cm (28–96 cm), and 58 cm (37–93 cm), respectively. As an independent comparison, a semi-empirical sea level model calibrated to temperature and GMSL over the past two millennia estimates median GMSL rise within 7–8 cm of these projections. By 2150, relative to the 2.0 °C scenario and based on median sea level projections, GMST stabilization of 1.5 °C spares the inundation of lands currently home to about 5 million people, including 60 000 individuals currently residing in Small Island Developing States. We quantify projected changes to the expected frequency of historical 10-, 100-, and 500-year ESL events using frequency amplification factors that incorporate uncertainty in both local SLR and historical return periods of ESLs. By 2150, relative to a 2.0 °C scenario, the reduction in the frequency amplification of the historical 100 year ESL event arising from a 1.5 °C GMST stabilization is greatest in the eastern United States, with ESL event frequency amplification being reduced by about half at most tide gauges. In general, smaller reductions are projected for Small Island Developing States. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:03:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9c500842976c46dbb77e6b34c4442613 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:03:48Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-9c500842976c46dbb77e6b34c44426132023-08-09T14:31:22ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262018-01-0113303404010.1088/1748-9326/aaac87Extreme sea level implications of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C temperature stabilization targets in the 21st and 22nd centuriesD J Rasmussen0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4668-5749Klaus Bittermann1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8251-6339Maya K Buchanan2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9806-1132Scott Kulp3Benjamin H Strauss4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6856-6575Robert E Kopp5https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4016-9428Michael Oppenheimer6https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9708-5914Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs , Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States of America; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences , Tufts University, Medford, MA, USA and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam , GermanyWoodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs , Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States of America; ICF International (Climate Adaptation and Resilience) , New York, NY, United States of AmericaClimate Central , Princeton, NJ, United States of AmericaClimate Central , Princeton, NJ, United States of AmericaDepartment of Earth & Planetary Sciences and Institute of Earth , Ocean, & Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States of AmericaWoodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs , Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States of America; Department of Geosciences , Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States of AmericaSea-level rise (SLR) is magnifying the frequency and severity of extreme sea levels (ESLs) that can cause coastal flooding. The rate and amount of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise is a function of the trajectory of global mean surface temperature (GMST). Therefore, temperature stabilization targets (e.g. 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C of warming above pre-industrial levels, as from the Paris Agreement) have important implications for coastal flood risk. Here, we assess, in a global network of tide gauges, the differences in the expected frequencies of ESLs between scenarios that stabilize GMST warming at 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We employ probabilistic, localized SLR projections and long-term hourly tide gauge records to estimate the expected frequencies of historical and future ESLs for the 21st and 22nd centuries. By 2100, under 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C GMST stabilization, the median GMSL is projected to rise 48 cm (90% probability of 28–82 cm), 56 cm (28–96 cm), and 58 cm (37–93 cm), respectively. As an independent comparison, a semi-empirical sea level model calibrated to temperature and GMSL over the past two millennia estimates median GMSL rise within 7–8 cm of these projections. By 2150, relative to the 2.0 °C scenario and based on median sea level projections, GMST stabilization of 1.5 °C spares the inundation of lands currently home to about 5 million people, including 60 000 individuals currently residing in Small Island Developing States. We quantify projected changes to the expected frequency of historical 10-, 100-, and 500-year ESL events using frequency amplification factors that incorporate uncertainty in both local SLR and historical return periods of ESLs. By 2150, relative to a 2.0 °C scenario, the reduction in the frequency amplification of the historical 100 year ESL event arising from a 1.5 °C GMST stabilization is greatest in the eastern United States, with ESL event frequency amplification being reduced by about half at most tide gauges. In general, smaller reductions are projected for Small Island Developing States.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaac87sea level risecoastal floodingclimate change impactsparis agreementIPCCextreme sea levels |
| spellingShingle | D J Rasmussen Klaus Bittermann Maya K Buchanan Scott Kulp Benjamin H Strauss Robert E Kopp Michael Oppenheimer Extreme sea level implications of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C temperature stabilization targets in the 21st and 22nd centuries Environmental Research Letters sea level rise coastal flooding climate change impacts paris agreement IPCC extreme sea levels |
| title | Extreme sea level implications of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C temperature stabilization targets in the 21st and 22nd centuries |
| title_full | Extreme sea level implications of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C temperature stabilization targets in the 21st and 22nd centuries |
| title_fullStr | Extreme sea level implications of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C temperature stabilization targets in the 21st and 22nd centuries |
| title_full_unstemmed | Extreme sea level implications of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C temperature stabilization targets in the 21st and 22nd centuries |
| title_short | Extreme sea level implications of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C temperature stabilization targets in the 21st and 22nd centuries |
| title_sort | extreme sea level implications of 1 5 °c 2 0 °c and 2 5 °c temperature stabilization targets in the 21st and 22nd centuries |
| topic | sea level rise coastal flooding climate change impacts paris agreement IPCC extreme sea levels |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaac87 |
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