Data-driven assessment of immune evasion and dynamic Zero-COVID policy on fast-spreading Omicron in Changchun
Due to its immune evasion capability, the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant was declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization. The spread of Omicron in Changchun (i.e., the capital of Jilin province in northeast of China) during the spring of 2022 was successfully curbed under the strategy...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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AIMS Press
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
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| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2023960?viewType=HTML |
| _version_ | 1797352787551453184 |
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| author | Kun Wang Peng Wang Zhengang Jiang Lu Wang Linhua Zhou Dequan Qi Weishi Yin Pinchao Meng |
| author_facet | Kun Wang Peng Wang Zhengang Jiang Lu Wang Linhua Zhou Dequan Qi Weishi Yin Pinchao Meng |
| author_sort | Kun Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Due to its immune evasion capability, the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant was declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization. The spread of Omicron in Changchun (i.e., the capital of Jilin province in northeast of China) during the spring of 2022 was successfully curbed under the strategy of a dynamic Zero-COVID policy. To evaluate the impact of immune evasion on vaccination and other measures, and to understand how the dynamic Zero-COVID measure stopped the epidemics in Changchun, we establish a compartmental model over different stages and parameterized the model with actual reported data. The model simulation firstly shows a reasonably good fit between our model prediction and the data. Second, we estimate the testing rate in the early stage of the outbreak to reveal the real infection size. Third, numerical simulations show that the coverage of vaccine immunization in Changchun and the regular nucleic acid testing could not stop the epidemic, while the 'non-pharmaceutical' intervention measures utilized in the dynamic Zero-COVID policy could play significant roles in the containment of Omicron. Based on the parameterized model, numerical analysis demonstrates that if one wants to achieve epidemic control by fully utilizing the effect of 'dynamic Zero-COVID' measures, therefore social activities are restricted to the minimum level, and then the economic development may come to a halt. The insight analysis in this work could provide reference for infectious disease prevention and control measures in the future. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T13:21:51Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9c8095190cc446cdadf9d3190a4314d3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1551-0018 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T13:21:51Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | AIMS Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj.art-9c8095190cc446cdadf9d3190a4314d32024-01-18T01:51:19ZengAIMS PressMathematical Biosciences and Engineering1551-00182023-12-012012216922171610.3934/mbe.2023960Data-driven assessment of immune evasion and dynamic Zero-COVID policy on fast-spreading Omicron in ChangchunKun Wang0Peng Wang1Zhengang Jiang 2Lu Wang 3Linhua Zhou4Dequan Qi 5Weishi Yin6Pinchao Meng 71. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Changchun University of Science and Technology, Changchun 130022, China2. Jilin Provincial Joint Key Labortory of Big Data Science and Engineering, Changchun University of Science and Technology, Changchun 130022, China2. Jilin Provincial Joint Key Labortory of Big Data Science and Engineering, Changchun University of Science and Technology, Changchun 130022, China1. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Changchun University of Science and Technology, Changchun 130022, China1. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Changchun University of Science and Technology, Changchun 130022, China1. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Changchun University of Science and Technology, Changchun 130022, China1. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Changchun University of Science and Technology, Changchun 130022, China1. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Changchun University of Science and Technology, Changchun 130022, ChinaDue to its immune evasion capability, the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant was declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization. The spread of Omicron in Changchun (i.e., the capital of Jilin province in northeast of China) during the spring of 2022 was successfully curbed under the strategy of a dynamic Zero-COVID policy. To evaluate the impact of immune evasion on vaccination and other measures, and to understand how the dynamic Zero-COVID measure stopped the epidemics in Changchun, we establish a compartmental model over different stages and parameterized the model with actual reported data. The model simulation firstly shows a reasonably good fit between our model prediction and the data. Second, we estimate the testing rate in the early stage of the outbreak to reveal the real infection size. Third, numerical simulations show that the coverage of vaccine immunization in Changchun and the regular nucleic acid testing could not stop the epidemic, while the 'non-pharmaceutical' intervention measures utilized in the dynamic Zero-COVID policy could play significant roles in the containment of Omicron. Based on the parameterized model, numerical analysis demonstrates that if one wants to achieve epidemic control by fully utilizing the effect of 'dynamic Zero-COVID' measures, therefore social activities are restricted to the minimum level, and then the economic development may come to a halt. The insight analysis in this work could provide reference for infectious disease prevention and control measures in the future.https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2023960?viewType=HTMLdynamic modelingdata-drivenomicronimmune evasiondynamic zero-covid policy |
| spellingShingle | Kun Wang Peng Wang Zhengang Jiang Lu Wang Linhua Zhou Dequan Qi Weishi Yin Pinchao Meng Data-driven assessment of immune evasion and dynamic Zero-COVID policy on fast-spreading Omicron in Changchun Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering dynamic modeling data-driven omicron immune evasion dynamic zero-covid policy |
| title | Data-driven assessment of immune evasion and dynamic Zero-COVID policy on fast-spreading Omicron in Changchun |
| title_full | Data-driven assessment of immune evasion and dynamic Zero-COVID policy on fast-spreading Omicron in Changchun |
| title_fullStr | Data-driven assessment of immune evasion and dynamic Zero-COVID policy on fast-spreading Omicron in Changchun |
| title_full_unstemmed | Data-driven assessment of immune evasion and dynamic Zero-COVID policy on fast-spreading Omicron in Changchun |
| title_short | Data-driven assessment of immune evasion and dynamic Zero-COVID policy on fast-spreading Omicron in Changchun |
| title_sort | data driven assessment of immune evasion and dynamic zero covid policy on fast spreading omicron in changchun |
| topic | dynamic modeling data-driven omicron immune evasion dynamic zero-covid policy |
| url | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2023960?viewType=HTML |
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