Forecasted Trends of the New COVID-19 Epidemic Due to the Omicron Variant in Thailand, 2022
Thailand is among many countries severely affected by COVID-19 since the beginning of the global pandemic. Thus, a deliberate planning of health care resource allocation against health care demand in light of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant, Omicron, is crucial. This study aims to forecast the trends in...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Vaccines |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/10/7/1024 |
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| author | Rapeepong Suphanchaimat Pard Teekasap Natthaprang Nittayasoot Mathudara Phaiyarom Nisachol Cetthakrikul |
| author_facet | Rapeepong Suphanchaimat Pard Teekasap Natthaprang Nittayasoot Mathudara Phaiyarom Nisachol Cetthakrikul |
| author_sort | Rapeepong Suphanchaimat |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Thailand is among many countries severely affected by COVID-19 since the beginning of the global pandemic. Thus, a deliberate planning of health care resource allocation against health care demand in light of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant, Omicron, is crucial. This study aims to forecast the trends in COVID-19 cases and deaths from the Omicron variant in Thailand. We used a compartmental susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model combined with a system dynamics model. We developed four scenarios with differing values of the reproduction number (R) and vaccination rates. In the most pessimistic scenario (R = 7.5 and base vaccination rate), the number of incident cases reached a peak of 49,523 (95% CI: 20,599 to 99,362) by day 73, and the peak daily deaths grew to 270 by day 50. The predicted cumulative cases and deaths at the end of the wave were approximately 3.7 million and 22,000, respectively. In the most optimistic assumption (R = 4.5 and speedy vaccination rate), the peak incident cases was about one third the cases in the pessimistic assumption (15,650, 95% CI: 12,688 to 17,603). In the coming months, Thailand may face a new wave of the COVID-19 epidemic due to the Omicron variant. The case toll due to the Omicron wave is likely to outnumber the earlier Delta wave, but the death toll is proportionately lower. Vaccination campaigns for the booster dose should be expedited to prevent severe illnesses and deaths in the population. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T05:45:15Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9c8583f49c264bd086b39a75d4d27518 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-393X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T05:45:15Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Vaccines |
| spelling | doaj.art-9c8583f49c264bd086b39a75d4d275182023-12-03T12:22:11ZengMDPI AGVaccines2076-393X2022-06-01107102410.3390/vaccines10071024Forecasted Trends of the New COVID-19 Epidemic Due to the Omicron Variant in Thailand, 2022Rapeepong Suphanchaimat0Pard Teekasap1Natthaprang Nittayasoot2Mathudara Phaiyarom3Nisachol Cetthakrikul4Division of Epidemiology, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi 11000, ThailandFaculty of Business and Technology, Stamford International University, Bangkok 10250, ThailandDivision of Epidemiology, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi 11000, ThailandInternational Health Policy Program, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi 11000, ThailandInternational Health Policy Program, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi 11000, ThailandThailand is among many countries severely affected by COVID-19 since the beginning of the global pandemic. Thus, a deliberate planning of health care resource allocation against health care demand in light of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant, Omicron, is crucial. This study aims to forecast the trends in COVID-19 cases and deaths from the Omicron variant in Thailand. We used a compartmental susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model combined with a system dynamics model. We developed four scenarios with differing values of the reproduction number (R) and vaccination rates. In the most pessimistic scenario (R = 7.5 and base vaccination rate), the number of incident cases reached a peak of 49,523 (95% CI: 20,599 to 99,362) by day 73, and the peak daily deaths grew to 270 by day 50. The predicted cumulative cases and deaths at the end of the wave were approximately 3.7 million and 22,000, respectively. In the most optimistic assumption (R = 4.5 and speedy vaccination rate), the peak incident cases was about one third the cases in the pessimistic assumption (15,650, 95% CI: 12,688 to 17,603). In the coming months, Thailand may face a new wave of the COVID-19 epidemic due to the Omicron variant. The case toll due to the Omicron wave is likely to outnumber the earlier Delta wave, but the death toll is proportionately lower. Vaccination campaigns for the booster dose should be expedited to prevent severe illnesses and deaths in the population.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/10/7/1024COVID-19vaccineSARS-CoV-2Omicron |
| spellingShingle | Rapeepong Suphanchaimat Pard Teekasap Natthaprang Nittayasoot Mathudara Phaiyarom Nisachol Cetthakrikul Forecasted Trends of the New COVID-19 Epidemic Due to the Omicron Variant in Thailand, 2022 Vaccines COVID-19 vaccine SARS-CoV-2 Omicron |
| title | Forecasted Trends of the New COVID-19 Epidemic Due to the Omicron Variant in Thailand, 2022 |
| title_full | Forecasted Trends of the New COVID-19 Epidemic Due to the Omicron Variant in Thailand, 2022 |
| title_fullStr | Forecasted Trends of the New COVID-19 Epidemic Due to the Omicron Variant in Thailand, 2022 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasted Trends of the New COVID-19 Epidemic Due to the Omicron Variant in Thailand, 2022 |
| title_short | Forecasted Trends of the New COVID-19 Epidemic Due to the Omicron Variant in Thailand, 2022 |
| title_sort | forecasted trends of the new covid 19 epidemic due to the omicron variant in thailand 2022 |
| topic | COVID-19 vaccine SARS-CoV-2 Omicron |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/10/7/1024 |
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