Analysis and projection of summer temperature regime in Belgrade
Multitude of meteorological parameters defines weather and it continuously oscillates around the average climate values. Although patterns repeat after a certain period, nevertheless they virtually are never identical with preceding cases. They have different intensity, duration and consequ...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Geographical Institute "Jovan Cvijić" SASA
2014-01-01
|
| Series: | Zbornik Radova: Geografski institut "Jovan Cvijić" |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.doiserbia.nb.rs/img/doi/0350-7599/2014/0350-75991401013T.pdf |
| Summary: | Multitude of meteorological parameters defines weather and it continuously
oscillates around the average climate values. Although patterns repeat after
a certain period, nevertheless they virtually are never identical with
preceding cases. They have different intensity, duration and consequence.
However, some lawfulness of repetitiveness of patterns and meteorological
parameters were observed and they can be described and defined by the indices
of circulation. In this paper, we analyze the repetitiveness of hot and cold
summers in Belgrade, which are defined by temperature and number of days with
maximum temperature above a certain value. The analysis is focused on a very
hot summer, which poses a potential threat due to rainfall and drought
deficit, and favorable conditions for forest fires. By spectral and graphical
method we observed lawfulness of their repetitiveness and on the base of that
we made we made projections of temperature regime. The result indicates that
in the next 30-35 years the number of days with the maximum daily temperature
equal to or greater than 35°C decreases and in the equally long time again
increases. Because the temperature correlates with the number of days with
the maximum daily temperature, the average summer temperature should have an
oscillation of about 65 years like trend of the number of days. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 0350-7599 1821-2808 |