A Bayesian Approach to Absent Evidence Reasoning
Under what conditions is the failure to have evidence that p evidence that p is false? Absent evidence reasoning is common in many sciences, including astronomy, archeology, biology and medicine. An often-repeated epistemological motto is that “the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.” An...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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University of Windsor
2011-03-01
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| Series: | Informal Logic |
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| Online Access: | https://informallogic.ca/index.php/informal_logic/article/view/2967 |
| _version_ | 1811328977789255680 |
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| author | Christopher Lee Stephens |
| author_facet | Christopher Lee Stephens |
| author_sort | Christopher Lee Stephens |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Under what conditions is the failure to have evidence that p evidence that p is false? Absent evidence reasoning is common in many sciences, including astronomy, archeology, biology and medicine. An often-repeated epistemological motto is that “the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.” Analysis of absent evidence reasoning usually takes place in a deductive or frequentist hypothesis-testing framework. Instead, I develop a Bayesian analysis of this motto and prove that, under plausible assumptions about the nature of evidence, the absence of evidence is evidence of absence. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T15:35:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9cc859c86f274b8792181e68a4edfd06 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0824-2577 2293-734X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T15:35:32Z |
| publishDate | 2011-03-01 |
| publisher | University of Windsor |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Informal Logic |
| spelling | doaj.art-9cc859c86f274b8792181e68a4edfd062022-12-22T02:41:17ZengUniversity of WindsorInformal Logic0824-25772293-734X2011-03-0131110.22329/il.v31i1.2967A Bayesian Approach to Absent Evidence ReasoningChristopher Lee Stephens0University of British ColumbiaUnder what conditions is the failure to have evidence that p evidence that p is false? Absent evidence reasoning is common in many sciences, including astronomy, archeology, biology and medicine. An often-repeated epistemological motto is that “the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.” Analysis of absent evidence reasoning usually takes place in a deductive or frequentist hypothesis-testing framework. Instead, I develop a Bayesian analysis of this motto and prove that, under plausible assumptions about the nature of evidence, the absence of evidence is evidence of absence.https://informallogic.ca/index.php/informal_logic/article/view/2967absence of evidencearguments from ignoranceBayesianismevidenceevidence of absence |
| spellingShingle | Christopher Lee Stephens A Bayesian Approach to Absent Evidence Reasoning Informal Logic absence of evidence arguments from ignorance Bayesianism evidence evidence of absence |
| title | A Bayesian Approach to Absent Evidence Reasoning |
| title_full | A Bayesian Approach to Absent Evidence Reasoning |
| title_fullStr | A Bayesian Approach to Absent Evidence Reasoning |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Bayesian Approach to Absent Evidence Reasoning |
| title_short | A Bayesian Approach to Absent Evidence Reasoning |
| title_sort | bayesian approach to absent evidence reasoning |
| topic | absence of evidence arguments from ignorance Bayesianism evidence evidence of absence |
| url | https://informallogic.ca/index.php/informal_logic/article/view/2967 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT christopherleestephens abayesianapproachtoabsentevidencereasoning AT christopherleestephens bayesianapproachtoabsentevidencereasoning |