Prediction of fertility parameters in Ilam city in five-year intervals up to the horizon of 2051
Introduction: Population dynamics are central to policymaking and future planning, commanding perpetual governmental attention across economic, social, and cultural domains. This study focuses on forecasting fertility indicators in Ilam city, projecting trends in five-year intervals up to 2051. Mate...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Ilam University of Medical Sciences
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Journal of Basic Research in Medical Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://jbrms.medilam.ac.ir/article-1-710-en.pdf |
| Summary: | Introduction: Population dynamics are central to policymaking and future planning, commanding perpetual governmental attention across economic, social, and cultural domains. This study focuses on forecasting fertility indicators in Ilam city, projecting trends in five-year intervals up to 2051.
Material & Methods: The "secondary document analysis" method was employed, utilizing data from the country's population censuses (1976-2016), birth events, and population statistics reported by Iran’s National Organization for Civil Registration. The urban area of Ilam served as the study's location. A mixed-method approach to population forecasting, involving the use of Spectrum, Mortpak, and Excel, was employed for fertility status prediction and analysis.
Results: The research outcomes indicate that under two scenarios with fixed and minimal thresholds (fertility rates of 1.8 and 1.5, respectively), the net reproduction rate (NRR) would fall below one girl.
Conclusion: Based on these scenarios, it is evident that girls cannot replace their mothers in bearing children, contributing to the observed decline in fertility and, consequently, the population of Ilam city. |
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| ISSN: | 2383-0506 2383-0972 |