Modelling the Dynamic Impacts of High Speed Rail Operation on Regional Public Transport—From the Perspective of Energy Economy
While the introduction of a high speed rail (HSR) provides passengers with another more environmentally friendly, convenient, and time-saving transport option, it also disrupts the existing passenger transport market. This study adopts time series analysis to model the dynamic competition in a regio...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2018-05-01
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| Series: | Energies |
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| Online Access: | http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/5/1151 |
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| author | Ching-Chih Chou Chien-Wen Shen Dapeng Gao Yang Gao Kai Wang Sang-Bing Tsai |
| author_facet | Ching-Chih Chou Chien-Wen Shen Dapeng Gao Yang Gao Kai Wang Sang-Bing Tsai |
| author_sort | Ching-Chih Chou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | While the introduction of a high speed rail (HSR) provides passengers with another more environmentally friendly, convenient, and time-saving transport option, it also disrupts the existing passenger transport market. This study adopts time series analysis to model the dynamic competition in a regional passenger transport market when an HSR is introduced. The analyses include examining the long-run equilibrium and causal relationships, and the short-run causality and dynamic relationships between transport modes. In addition, based on the model we conduct impulse response tests and variance decomposition tests to further interpret the interactions between two transport modes. An empirical study is carried out, and the findings indicate that the HSR has a negative impact on conventional rail and air transport in the long-run. In the short-run dynamics, the air passenger transport volume could be regarded as a good predictor of HSR passenger volume. In turn, the HSR passenger volume could be used to predict conventional rail transport volume. The operations of HSR and conventional rail are complementary in the short term. From the short-run market viewpoint, the HSR and conventional rail meet different kinds of passenger demand. Therefore, a previous increased passenger volume for the HSR implies an overall increasing demand for regional transport. Consequently, the past increased HSR passenger volume could be used to predict the growth of conventional rail transport. Through the impulse response test, we can further track the responses of the three transport modes to the shocks from themselves and each other. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T20:40:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9d298c72c09642e39906a95e04e9f7cc |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T20:40:50Z |
| publishDate | 2018-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj.art-9d298c72c09642e39906a95e04e9f7cc2022-12-22T04:04:13ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732018-05-01115115110.3390/en11051151en11051151Modelling the Dynamic Impacts of High Speed Rail Operation on Regional Public Transport—From the Perspective of Energy EconomyChing-Chih Chou0Chien-Wen Shen1Dapeng Gao2Yang Gao3Kai Wang4Sang-Bing Tsai5School of Business, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China Zhongshan Institute, Zhongshan 528402, ChinaDepartment of Business Administration, National Central University, Taoyuan City 32001, TaiwanInstitute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, ChinaSchool of Business, Dalian University of Technology, Panjin 124221, ChinaCollege of Business Administration, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, ChinaSchool of Business, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China Zhongshan Institute, Zhongshan 528402, ChinaWhile the introduction of a high speed rail (HSR) provides passengers with another more environmentally friendly, convenient, and time-saving transport option, it also disrupts the existing passenger transport market. This study adopts time series analysis to model the dynamic competition in a regional passenger transport market when an HSR is introduced. The analyses include examining the long-run equilibrium and causal relationships, and the short-run causality and dynamic relationships between transport modes. In addition, based on the model we conduct impulse response tests and variance decomposition tests to further interpret the interactions between two transport modes. An empirical study is carried out, and the findings indicate that the HSR has a negative impact on conventional rail and air transport in the long-run. In the short-run dynamics, the air passenger transport volume could be regarded as a good predictor of HSR passenger volume. In turn, the HSR passenger volume could be used to predict conventional rail transport volume. The operations of HSR and conventional rail are complementary in the short term. From the short-run market viewpoint, the HSR and conventional rail meet different kinds of passenger demand. Therefore, a previous increased passenger volume for the HSR implies an overall increasing demand for regional transport. Consequently, the past increased HSR passenger volume could be used to predict the growth of conventional rail transport. Through the impulse response test, we can further track the responses of the three transport modes to the shocks from themselves and each other.http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/5/1151energy consumptionhigh speed railconventional rail transportregional public transportenergy savingenergy economy |
| spellingShingle | Ching-Chih Chou Chien-Wen Shen Dapeng Gao Yang Gao Kai Wang Sang-Bing Tsai Modelling the Dynamic Impacts of High Speed Rail Operation on Regional Public Transport—From the Perspective of Energy Economy Energies energy consumption high speed rail conventional rail transport regional public transport energy saving energy economy |
| title | Modelling the Dynamic Impacts of High Speed Rail Operation on Regional Public Transport—From the Perspective of Energy Economy |
| title_full | Modelling the Dynamic Impacts of High Speed Rail Operation on Regional Public Transport—From the Perspective of Energy Economy |
| title_fullStr | Modelling the Dynamic Impacts of High Speed Rail Operation on Regional Public Transport—From the Perspective of Energy Economy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the Dynamic Impacts of High Speed Rail Operation on Regional Public Transport—From the Perspective of Energy Economy |
| title_short | Modelling the Dynamic Impacts of High Speed Rail Operation on Regional Public Transport—From the Perspective of Energy Economy |
| title_sort | modelling the dynamic impacts of high speed rail operation on regional public transport from the perspective of energy economy |
| topic | energy consumption high speed rail conventional rail transport regional public transport energy saving energy economy |
| url | http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/5/1151 |
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