Sensitivity Analysis of Start Point of Extreme Daily Rainfall Using CRHUDA and Stochastic Models
Forecasting extreme precipitation is one of the basic actions of warning systems in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). With thousands of economic losses and severe damage caused by floods in urban areas, hydrometeorological monitoring is a priority in most countries in the LAC region. The monito...
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MDPI AG
2024-02-01
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2571-905X/7/1/10 |
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| author | Martin Muñoz-Mandujano Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez Jose Alfredo Acuña-Garcia Mauricio Arturo Ibarra-Corona Isaac Carpintero Aguilar José Alejandro Vargas-Diaz |
| author_facet | Martin Muñoz-Mandujano Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez Jose Alfredo Acuña-Garcia Mauricio Arturo Ibarra-Corona Isaac Carpintero Aguilar José Alejandro Vargas-Diaz |
| author_sort | Martin Muñoz-Mandujano |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Forecasting extreme precipitation is one of the basic actions of warning systems in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). With thousands of economic losses and severe damage caused by floods in urban areas, hydrometeorological monitoring is a priority in most countries in the LAC region. The monitoring of convective precipitation, cold fronts, and hurricane tracks are the most demanded technological developments for early warning systems in the region. However, predicting and forecasting the onset time of extreme precipitation is a subject of life-saving scientific research. Developed in 2019, the CRHUDA (Crossing HUmidity, Dew point, and Atmospheric pressure) model provides insight into the onset of precipitation from the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. With access to a historical database of more than 600 storms, the CRHUDA model provides a prediction with a precision of six to eight hours in advance of storm onset. However, the calibration is complex given the addition of ARMA(p,q)-type models for real-time forecasting. This paper presents the calibration of the joint CRHUDA+ARMA(p,q) model. It is concluded that CRHUDA is significantly more suitable and relevant for the forecast of precipitation and a possible future development for an early warning system (EWS). |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T17:48:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9d38dc8a563145b58efbe474e2a2d37b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2571-905X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T17:48:34Z |
| publishDate | 2024-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Stats |
| spelling | doaj.art-9d38dc8a563145b58efbe474e2a2d37b2024-03-27T14:05:05ZengMDPI AGStats2571-905X2024-02-017116017110.3390/stats7010010Sensitivity Analysis of Start Point of Extreme Daily Rainfall Using CRHUDA and Stochastic ModelsMartin Muñoz-Mandujano0Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez1Jose Alfredo Acuña-Garcia2Mauricio Arturo Ibarra-Corona3Isaac Carpintero Aguilar4José Alejandro Vargas-Diaz5Facultad de Informatica, Autonomous University of Queretaro Juriquilla, Queretaro 76230, MexicoWater Research Center, International Flood Initiative, Latin-American and the Caribbean Region (IFI-LAC), Intergovernmental Hydrological Programme (IHP), Autonomous University of Queretaro, Queretaro 76010, MexicoFacultad de Informatica, Autonomous University of Queretaro Juriquilla, Queretaro 76230, MexicoFacultad de Informatica, Autonomous University of Queretaro Juriquilla, Queretaro 76230, MexicoFacultad de Ingenieria, Ingenieria Civil, Autonomous University of Queretaro Centro Universitario, Queretaro 76010, MexicoFacultad de Informatica, Autonomous University of Queretaro Juriquilla, Queretaro 76230, MexicoForecasting extreme precipitation is one of the basic actions of warning systems in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). With thousands of economic losses and severe damage caused by floods in urban areas, hydrometeorological monitoring is a priority in most countries in the LAC region. The monitoring of convective precipitation, cold fronts, and hurricane tracks are the most demanded technological developments for early warning systems in the region. However, predicting and forecasting the onset time of extreme precipitation is a subject of life-saving scientific research. Developed in 2019, the CRHUDA (Crossing HUmidity, Dew point, and Atmospheric pressure) model provides insight into the onset of precipitation from the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. With access to a historical database of more than 600 storms, the CRHUDA model provides a prediction with a precision of six to eight hours in advance of storm onset. However, the calibration is complex given the addition of ARMA(p,q)-type models for real-time forecasting. This paper presents the calibration of the joint CRHUDA+ARMA(p,q) model. It is concluded that CRHUDA is significantly more suitable and relevant for the forecast of precipitation and a possible future development for an early warning system (EWS).https://www.mdpi.com/2571-905X/7/1/10CRHUDAhydrological regimehydraulic worksstorm-durationrainfall intensityextreme rainfall |
| spellingShingle | Martin Muñoz-Mandujano Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez Jose Alfredo Acuña-Garcia Mauricio Arturo Ibarra-Corona Isaac Carpintero Aguilar José Alejandro Vargas-Diaz Sensitivity Analysis of Start Point of Extreme Daily Rainfall Using CRHUDA and Stochastic Models Stats CRHUDA hydrological regime hydraulic works storm-duration rainfall intensity extreme rainfall |
| title | Sensitivity Analysis of Start Point of Extreme Daily Rainfall Using CRHUDA and Stochastic Models |
| title_full | Sensitivity Analysis of Start Point of Extreme Daily Rainfall Using CRHUDA and Stochastic Models |
| title_fullStr | Sensitivity Analysis of Start Point of Extreme Daily Rainfall Using CRHUDA and Stochastic Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Sensitivity Analysis of Start Point of Extreme Daily Rainfall Using CRHUDA and Stochastic Models |
| title_short | Sensitivity Analysis of Start Point of Extreme Daily Rainfall Using CRHUDA and Stochastic Models |
| title_sort | sensitivity analysis of start point of extreme daily rainfall using crhuda and stochastic models |
| topic | CRHUDA hydrological regime hydraulic works storm-duration rainfall intensity extreme rainfall |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2571-905X/7/1/10 |
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