Calibration of Grid Models for Analyzing Energy Policies

Intermittent forms of renewable energy destabilize electricity grids unless adequate reliable generating capacity and storage are available, while instability of hybrid electricity grids and cost fluctuations in fossil fuel prices pose further challenges for policymakers. We examine the interaction...

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Main Authors: Jon Duan, G. Cornelis van Kooten, A. T. M. Hasibul Islam
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2023-01-01
Series:Energies
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/3/1234
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author Jon Duan
G. Cornelis van Kooten
A. T. M. Hasibul Islam
author_facet Jon Duan
G. Cornelis van Kooten
A. T. M. Hasibul Islam
author_sort Jon Duan
collection DOAJ
description Intermittent forms of renewable energy destabilize electricity grids unless adequate reliable generating capacity and storage are available, while instability of hybrid electricity grids and cost fluctuations in fossil fuel prices pose further challenges for policymakers. We examine the interaction between renewable and traditional fossil-fuel energy sources in the context of the Alberta electricity grid, where policymakers seek to eliminate coal and reduce reliance on natural gas. We develop a policy model of the Alberta grid and, unlike earlier models, calibrate the cost functions of thermal generation using positive mathematical programming. Rather than employing constant average and marginal costs, calibration determines upward sloping supply (marginal cost) functions. The calibrated model is then used to determine an optimal generation mix under different assumptions regarding carbon prices and policies to eliminate coal-fired capacity. Results indicate that significant wind capacity can enter the Alberta grid if carbon prices are high, but that it remains difficult to eliminate reliable baseload capacity. Adequate baseload coal and/or natural gas capacity is required, which is the case even if battery storage is allowed into the system. Further, significant peak-load gas capacity will also be required to backstop intermittent renewables.
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spelling doaj.art-9d3b22dad094460a90fbb3c7de768be52023-11-16T16:34:35ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732023-01-01163123410.3390/en16031234Calibration of Grid Models for Analyzing Energy PoliciesJon Duan0G. Cornelis van Kooten1A. T. M. Hasibul Islam2Department of Economics, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8P 5C2, CanadaDepartment of Economics, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8P 5C2, CanadaDepartment of Economics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, CanadaIntermittent forms of renewable energy destabilize electricity grids unless adequate reliable generating capacity and storage are available, while instability of hybrid electricity grids and cost fluctuations in fossil fuel prices pose further challenges for policymakers. We examine the interaction between renewable and traditional fossil-fuel energy sources in the context of the Alberta electricity grid, where policymakers seek to eliminate coal and reduce reliance on natural gas. We develop a policy model of the Alberta grid and, unlike earlier models, calibrate the cost functions of thermal generation using positive mathematical programming. Rather than employing constant average and marginal costs, calibration determines upward sloping supply (marginal cost) functions. The calibrated model is then used to determine an optimal generation mix under different assumptions regarding carbon prices and policies to eliminate coal-fired capacity. Results indicate that significant wind capacity can enter the Alberta grid if carbon prices are high, but that it remains difficult to eliminate reliable baseload capacity. Adequate baseload coal and/or natural gas capacity is required, which is the case even if battery storage is allowed into the system. Further, significant peak-load gas capacity will also be required to backstop intermittent renewables.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/3/1234climate changecalibration of electricity grid modelintermittency and storagewholesale power marketfossil fuels and externalities
spellingShingle Jon Duan
G. Cornelis van Kooten
A. T. M. Hasibul Islam
Calibration of Grid Models for Analyzing Energy Policies
Energies
climate change
calibration of electricity grid model
intermittency and storage
wholesale power market
fossil fuels and externalities
title Calibration of Grid Models for Analyzing Energy Policies
title_full Calibration of Grid Models for Analyzing Energy Policies
title_fullStr Calibration of Grid Models for Analyzing Energy Policies
title_full_unstemmed Calibration of Grid Models for Analyzing Energy Policies
title_short Calibration of Grid Models for Analyzing Energy Policies
title_sort calibration of grid models for analyzing energy policies
topic climate change
calibration of electricity grid model
intermittency and storage
wholesale power market
fossil fuels and externalities
url https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/3/1234
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