Predicting Suitable Habitats of the African Cherry (<i>Prunus africana</i>) under Climate Change in Tanzania
<i>Prunus africana</i> is a fast-growing, evergreen canopy tree with several medicinal, household, and agroforestry uses, as well as ecological value for over 22 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. This species is under immense pressure from human activity, compounding its vulnerability to...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-09-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/9/988 |
| _version_ | 1797553661304373248 |
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| author | Richard A. Giliba Genesis Tambang Yengoh |
| author_facet | Richard A. Giliba Genesis Tambang Yengoh |
| author_sort | Richard A. Giliba |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <i>Prunus africana</i> is a fast-growing, evergreen canopy tree with several medicinal, household, and agroforestry uses, as well as ecological value for over 22 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. This species is under immense pressure from human activity, compounding its vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Predicting suitable habitats for <i>P. africana</i> under changing climate is essential for conservation monitoring and planning. This study intends to predict the impact of climate change on the suitable habitats for the vulnerable <i>P. africana</i> in Tanzania. We used maximum entropy modeling to predict future habitat distribution based on the representative concentration pathways scenario 4.5 and 8.5 for the mid-century 2050 and late-century 2070. Species occurrence records and environmental variables were used as a dependent variable and predictor variables respectively. The model performance was excellent with the area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) values of 0.96 and 0.85 respectively. The mean annual temperature (51.7%) and terrain ruggedness. index (31.6%) are the most important variables in predicting the current and future habitat distribution for <i>P. africana</i>. Our results show a decrease in suitable habitats for <i>P. africana</i> under all future representative concentration pathways scenario when compared with current distributions. These results have policy implications for over 22 countries of sub-Saharan Africa that are facing problems associated with the sustainability of this species. Institutional, policy, and conservation management approaches are proposed to support sustainable practices in favor of <i>P. africana</i>. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T16:19:45Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9d83fdbce1844da5bd733cc95f324dc6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T16:19:45Z |
| publishDate | 2020-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-9d83fdbce1844da5bd733cc95f324dc62023-11-20T13:46:28ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332020-09-0111998810.3390/atmos11090988Predicting Suitable Habitats of the African Cherry (<i>Prunus africana</i>) under Climate Change in TanzaniaRichard A. Giliba0Genesis Tambang Yengoh1School of Life Sciences and Bio-Engineering, The Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 447, Arusha, TanzaniaLund University Centre for Sustainability Studies–LUCSUS, Lund University, Biskopsgatan 5, SE 223 62 Lund, Sweden<i>Prunus africana</i> is a fast-growing, evergreen canopy tree with several medicinal, household, and agroforestry uses, as well as ecological value for over 22 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. This species is under immense pressure from human activity, compounding its vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Predicting suitable habitats for <i>P. africana</i> under changing climate is essential for conservation monitoring and planning. This study intends to predict the impact of climate change on the suitable habitats for the vulnerable <i>P. africana</i> in Tanzania. We used maximum entropy modeling to predict future habitat distribution based on the representative concentration pathways scenario 4.5 and 8.5 for the mid-century 2050 and late-century 2070. Species occurrence records and environmental variables were used as a dependent variable and predictor variables respectively. The model performance was excellent with the area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) values of 0.96 and 0.85 respectively. The mean annual temperature (51.7%) and terrain ruggedness. index (31.6%) are the most important variables in predicting the current and future habitat distribution for <i>P. africana</i>. Our results show a decrease in suitable habitats for <i>P. africana</i> under all future representative concentration pathways scenario when compared with current distributions. These results have policy implications for over 22 countries of sub-Saharan Africa that are facing problems associated with the sustainability of this species. Institutional, policy, and conservation management approaches are proposed to support sustainable practices in favor of <i>P. africana</i>.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/9/988habitat suitabilityspecies distributionclimate changeconservation<i>P. africana</i> |
| spellingShingle | Richard A. Giliba Genesis Tambang Yengoh Predicting Suitable Habitats of the African Cherry (<i>Prunus africana</i>) under Climate Change in Tanzania Atmosphere habitat suitability species distribution climate change conservation <i>P. africana</i> |
| title | Predicting Suitable Habitats of the African Cherry (<i>Prunus africana</i>) under Climate Change in Tanzania |
| title_full | Predicting Suitable Habitats of the African Cherry (<i>Prunus africana</i>) under Climate Change in Tanzania |
| title_fullStr | Predicting Suitable Habitats of the African Cherry (<i>Prunus africana</i>) under Climate Change in Tanzania |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting Suitable Habitats of the African Cherry (<i>Prunus africana</i>) under Climate Change in Tanzania |
| title_short | Predicting Suitable Habitats of the African Cherry (<i>Prunus africana</i>) under Climate Change in Tanzania |
| title_sort | predicting suitable habitats of the african cherry i prunus africana i under climate change in tanzania |
| topic | habitat suitability species distribution climate change conservation <i>P. africana</i> |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/9/988 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT richardagiliba predictingsuitablehabitatsoftheafricancherryiprunusafricanaiunderclimatechangeintanzania AT genesistambangyengoh predictingsuitablehabitatsoftheafricancherryiprunusafricanaiunderclimatechangeintanzania |