Detection of limit cycle signatures of El Niño in models and observations using reservoir computing
While the physics of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Tropical Pacific is quite well understood, there is still debate on several more fundamental aspects. The focus of this paper is on one of these issues that deals with whether ENSO variability, within the recharge-dischar...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Physics: Complexity |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072X/ad2699 |
| _version_ | 1797271825404657664 |
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| author | Francesco Guardamagna Claudia Wieners Xianghui Fang Henk A Dijkstra |
| author_facet | Francesco Guardamagna Claudia Wieners Xianghui Fang Henk A Dijkstra |
| author_sort | Francesco Guardamagna |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | While the physics of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Tropical Pacific is quite well understood, there is still debate on several more fundamental aspects. The focus of this paper is on one of these issues that deals with whether ENSO variability, within the recharge-discharge oscillator theory arising from a stochastic Hopf bifurcation, is subcritical or supercritical. Using a Reservoir Computing method, we develop a criticality index as an indicator for the presence of a limit cycle in noisy time series. The utility of this index is shown in three members of a hierarchy of ENSO models: a conceptual box model, the classical Zebiak-Cane model and a state-of-the-art Global Climate Model. Finally, the criticality index is determined from observations, leading to the result that ENSO variability appears to be subcritical. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T14:15:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9d948e4c42244b72ac2a7e88c282ade8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2632-072X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T14:15:48Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Physics: Complexity |
| spelling | doaj.art-9d948e4c42244b72ac2a7e88c282ade82024-03-06T12:45:04ZengIOP PublishingJournal of Physics: Complexity2632-072X2024-01-015101501610.1088/2632-072X/ad2699Detection of limit cycle signatures of El Niño in models and observations using reservoir computingFrancesco Guardamagna0https://orcid.org/0009-0002-9501-9208Claudia Wieners1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9033-1238Xianghui Fang2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1210-0055Henk A Dijkstra3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5817-7675Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU), Department of Physics, Utrecht University , Utrecht, The Netherlands; Center for Complex Systems Studies, Department of Physics, Utrecht University , Utrecht, The NetherlandsInstitute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU), Department of Physics, Utrecht University , Utrecht, The Netherlands; Center for Complex Systems Studies, Department of Physics, Utrecht University , Utrecht, The NetherlandsDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University , Shanghai, People’s Republic of ChinaInstitute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU), Department of Physics, Utrecht University , Utrecht, The Netherlands; Center for Complex Systems Studies, Department of Physics, Utrecht University , Utrecht, The NetherlandsWhile the physics of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Tropical Pacific is quite well understood, there is still debate on several more fundamental aspects. The focus of this paper is on one of these issues that deals with whether ENSO variability, within the recharge-discharge oscillator theory arising from a stochastic Hopf bifurcation, is subcritical or supercritical. Using a Reservoir Computing method, we develop a criticality index as an indicator for the presence of a limit cycle in noisy time series. The utility of this index is shown in three members of a hierarchy of ENSO models: a conceptual box model, the classical Zebiak-Cane model and a state-of-the-art Global Climate Model. Finally, the criticality index is determined from observations, leading to the result that ENSO variability appears to be subcritical.https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072X/ad2699El Niño variabilityreservoir computingHopf bifurcation |
| spellingShingle | Francesco Guardamagna Claudia Wieners Xianghui Fang Henk A Dijkstra Detection of limit cycle signatures of El Niño in models and observations using reservoir computing Journal of Physics: Complexity El Niño variability reservoir computing Hopf bifurcation |
| title | Detection of limit cycle signatures of El Niño in models and observations using reservoir computing |
| title_full | Detection of limit cycle signatures of El Niño in models and observations using reservoir computing |
| title_fullStr | Detection of limit cycle signatures of El Niño in models and observations using reservoir computing |
| title_full_unstemmed | Detection of limit cycle signatures of El Niño in models and observations using reservoir computing |
| title_short | Detection of limit cycle signatures of El Niño in models and observations using reservoir computing |
| title_sort | detection of limit cycle signatures of el nino in models and observations using reservoir computing |
| topic | El Niño variability reservoir computing Hopf bifurcation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072X/ad2699 |
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