Examination of the correlations between forest fires and solar activity using Hurst index
The aim of this paper is to find the functional dependence between the occurrence of forest fires and the factors inherent to solar activity. It has been shown that the amplitude of number of forest fires in the USA for warm period 2004-2007 is not time dependent. The method of seasonality...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Geographical Institute "Jovan Cvijić" SASA
2013-01-01
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| Series: | Zbornik Radova: Geografski institut "Jovan Cvijić" |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.doiserbia.nb.rs/img/doi/0350-7599/2013/0350-75991303023R.pdf |
| Summary: | The aim of this paper is to find the functional dependence between the
occurrence of forest fires and the factors inherent to solar activity. It has
been shown that the amplitude of number of forest fires in the USA for warm
period 2004-2007 is not time dependent. The method of seasonality indices for
seasonal components filter was used for the decomposition of time series. In
order to test this hypothesis the correlation analysis was held between the
factors Hi and the number of fires taking into account time delay (lag)
between the onset of fires and solar activity. The results of this analysis
show that any correlation coefficient is not higher than 0.2. For
determination of the degree of randomness for time series of input and output
parameters, the R/S analysis was conducted. The Hurst index was used for
determining the depth of their memory. Based on the proximity of the Hurst
index for the 10.7 cm solar flux categories and small forest fires, a
reasonable assumption can be made that the dynamics of these time series is
heavily dependent on the same factors. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike
Srbije, br. III47007] |
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| ISSN: | 0350-7599 1821-2808 |