Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill
Abstract Accurately predicting the future distribution of species is crucial for understanding how species will response to global environmental change and for evaluating the effectiveness of current protected areas (PAs). Here, we assessed the effect of climate and land use change on the projected...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Ecology and Evolution |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9023 |
| _version_ | 1818237019702165504 |
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| author | Junfeng Tang Xuzhe Zhao |
| author_facet | Junfeng Tang Xuzhe Zhao |
| author_sort | Junfeng Tang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Accurately predicting the future distribution of species is crucial for understanding how species will response to global environmental change and for evaluating the effectiveness of current protected areas (PAs). Here, we assessed the effect of climate and land use change on the projected suitable habitats of Davidia involucrata Baill under different future scenarios using the following two types of models: (a) only climate covariates (climate SDMs) and (b) climate and land use covariates (full SDMs). We found that full SDMs perform significantly better than climate SDMs in terms of both AUC (p < .001) and TSS (p < .001) and also projected more suitable habitat than climate SDMs both in the whole study area and in its current suitable range, although D. involucrate is predicted to loss at least 26.96% of its suitable area under all future scenarios. Similarly, we found that these range contractions projected by climate SDMs would negate the effectiveness of current PAs to a greater extent relative to full SDMs. These results suggest that although D. involucrate is extremely vulnerability to future climate change, conservation intervention to manage habitat may be an effective option to offset some of the negative effects of a changing climate on D. involucrate and can improve the effectiveness of current PAs. Overall, this study highlights the necessity of integrating climate and land use change to project the future distribution of species. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T12:19:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9dbc3787d30e436e9171c54d95d63d3e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-7758 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T12:19:06Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj.art-9dbc3787d30e436e9171c54d95d63d3e2022-12-22T00:24:42ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582022-06-01126n/an/a10.1002/ece3.9023Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata BaillJunfeng Tang0Xuzhe Zhao1Key Laboratory of Southwest China Wildlife Resources Conservation (Ministry of Education) China West Normal University Nanchong ChinaKey Laboratory of Southwest China Wildlife Resources Conservation (Ministry of Education) China West Normal University Nanchong ChinaAbstract Accurately predicting the future distribution of species is crucial for understanding how species will response to global environmental change and for evaluating the effectiveness of current protected areas (PAs). Here, we assessed the effect of climate and land use change on the projected suitable habitats of Davidia involucrata Baill under different future scenarios using the following two types of models: (a) only climate covariates (climate SDMs) and (b) climate and land use covariates (full SDMs). We found that full SDMs perform significantly better than climate SDMs in terms of both AUC (p < .001) and TSS (p < .001) and also projected more suitable habitat than climate SDMs both in the whole study area and in its current suitable range, although D. involucrate is predicted to loss at least 26.96% of its suitable area under all future scenarios. Similarly, we found that these range contractions projected by climate SDMs would negate the effectiveness of current PAs to a greater extent relative to full SDMs. These results suggest that although D. involucrate is extremely vulnerability to future climate change, conservation intervention to manage habitat may be an effective option to offset some of the negative effects of a changing climate on D. involucrate and can improve the effectiveness of current PAs. Overall, this study highlights the necessity of integrating climate and land use change to project the future distribution of species.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9023climate changeDavidia involucrateland use changerange shiftsSDMs |
| spellingShingle | Junfeng Tang Xuzhe Zhao Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill Ecology and Evolution climate change Davidia involucrate land use change range shifts SDMs |
| title | Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill |
| title_full | Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill |
| title_short | Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill |
| title_sort | forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of davidia involucrata baill |
| topic | climate change Davidia involucrate land use change range shifts SDMs |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9023 |
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