The impact of weather and atmospheric circulation on O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> levels at a rural mid-latitude site
In spite of the strict EU regulations, concentrations of surface ozone and PM<sub>10</sub> often exceed the pollution standards for the Netherlands and Europe. Their concentrations are controlled by (precursor) emissions, social and economic developments and a complex combination of mete...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2009-04-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/2695/2009/acp-9-2695-2009.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818756680706424832 |
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| author | J. Vila-Guerau de Arellano N. P. M. van Lipzig R. M. Trigo M. Demuzere |
| author_facet | J. Vila-Guerau de Arellano N. P. M. van Lipzig R. M. Trigo M. Demuzere |
| author_sort | J. Vila-Guerau de Arellano |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In spite of the strict EU regulations, concentrations of surface ozone and PM<sub>10</sub> often exceed the pollution standards for the Netherlands and Europe. Their concentrations are controlled by (precursor) emissions, social and economic developments and a complex combination of meteorological actors. This study tackles the latter, and provides insight in the meteorological processes that play a role in O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> levels in rural mid-latitudes sites in the Netherlands. The relations between meteorological actors and air quality are studied on a local scale based on observations from four rural sites and are determined by a comprehensive correlation analysis and a multiple regression (MLR) analysis in 2 modes, with and without air quality variables as predictors. Furthermore, the objective Lamb Weather Type approach is used to assess the influence of the large-scale circulation on air quality. Keeping in mind its future use in downscaling future climate scenarios for air quality purposes, special emphasis is given to an appropriate selection of the regressor variables readily available from operational meteorological forecasts or AOGCMs (Atmosphere-Ocean coupled General Circulation Models). The regression models perform satisfactory, especially for O<sub>3</sub>, with an (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup> of 57.0% and 25.0% for PM<sub>10</sub>. Including previous day air quality information increases significantly the models performance by 15% (O<sub>3</sub>) and 18% (PM<sub>10</sub>). The Lamb weather types show a seasonal distinct pattern for high (low) episodes of average O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> concentrations, and these are clear related with the meteorology-air quality correlation analysis. Although using a circulation type approach can provide important additional physical relations forward, our analysis reveals the circulation method is limited in terms of short-term air quality forecast for both O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup> between 0.12 and 23%). In summary, it is concluded that the use of a regression model is more promising for short-term downscaling from climate scenarios than the use of a weather type classification approach. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-18T05:58:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9e1125abb92846038fe697d53afa018c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-18T05:58:54Z |
| publishDate | 2009-04-01 |
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| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-9e1125abb92846038fe697d53afa018c2022-12-21T21:18:43ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242009-04-019826952714The impact of weather and atmospheric circulation on O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> levels at a rural mid-latitude siteJ. Vila-Guerau de ArellanoN. P. M. van LipzigR. M. TrigoM. DemuzereIn spite of the strict EU regulations, concentrations of surface ozone and PM<sub>10</sub> often exceed the pollution standards for the Netherlands and Europe. Their concentrations are controlled by (precursor) emissions, social and economic developments and a complex combination of meteorological actors. This study tackles the latter, and provides insight in the meteorological processes that play a role in O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> levels in rural mid-latitudes sites in the Netherlands. The relations between meteorological actors and air quality are studied on a local scale based on observations from four rural sites and are determined by a comprehensive correlation analysis and a multiple regression (MLR) analysis in 2 modes, with and without air quality variables as predictors. Furthermore, the objective Lamb Weather Type approach is used to assess the influence of the large-scale circulation on air quality. Keeping in mind its future use in downscaling future climate scenarios for air quality purposes, special emphasis is given to an appropriate selection of the regressor variables readily available from operational meteorological forecasts or AOGCMs (Atmosphere-Ocean coupled General Circulation Models). The regression models perform satisfactory, especially for O<sub>3</sub>, with an (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup> of 57.0% and 25.0% for PM<sub>10</sub>. Including previous day air quality information increases significantly the models performance by 15% (O<sub>3</sub>) and 18% (PM<sub>10</sub>). The Lamb weather types show a seasonal distinct pattern for high (low) episodes of average O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> concentrations, and these are clear related with the meteorology-air quality correlation analysis. Although using a circulation type approach can provide important additional physical relations forward, our analysis reveals the circulation method is limited in terms of short-term air quality forecast for both O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup> between 0.12 and 23%). In summary, it is concluded that the use of a regression model is more promising for short-term downscaling from climate scenarios than the use of a weather type classification approach.http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/2695/2009/acp-9-2695-2009.pdf |
| spellingShingle | J. Vila-Guerau de Arellano N. P. M. van Lipzig R. M. Trigo M. Demuzere The impact of weather and atmospheric circulation on O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> levels at a rural mid-latitude site Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | The impact of weather and atmospheric circulation on O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> levels at a rural mid-latitude site |
| title_full | The impact of weather and atmospheric circulation on O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> levels at a rural mid-latitude site |
| title_fullStr | The impact of weather and atmospheric circulation on O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> levels at a rural mid-latitude site |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of weather and atmospheric circulation on O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> levels at a rural mid-latitude site |
| title_short | The impact of weather and atmospheric circulation on O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> levels at a rural mid-latitude site |
| title_sort | impact of weather and atmospheric circulation on o sub 3 sub and pm sub 10 sub levels at a rural mid latitude site |
| url | http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/2695/2009/acp-9-2695-2009.pdf |
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