Emergence of Madden-Julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climate
Abstract The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has profound impacts on weather and climate phenomena, and thus changes in its activity have important implications under human-induced global climate change. Here, the time at which the MJO change signal emerges from natural variability under anthropogen...
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Nature Portfolio
2023-03-01
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Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00344-z |
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author | Hien X. Bui Yi-Xian Li Eric D. Maloney Ji-Eun Kim Sun-Seon Lee Jia-Yuh Yu |
author_facet | Hien X. Bui Yi-Xian Li Eric D. Maloney Ji-Eun Kim Sun-Seon Lee Jia-Yuh Yu |
author_sort | Hien X. Bui |
collection | DOAJ |
description | Abstract The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has profound impacts on weather and climate phenomena, and thus changes in its activity have important implications under human-induced global climate change. Here, the time at which the MJO change signal emerges from natural variability under anthropogenic warming is investigated. Using simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 2 large ensemble forced by the shared socioeconomic pathways SSP370 scenario, an increase in ensemble mean MJO precipitation amplitude and a smaller increase in MJO circulation amplitude occur by the end of the 21st century, consistent with previous studies. Notably, the MJO precipitation amplitude change signal generally emerges more than a decade earlier than that of MJO wind amplitude. MJO amplitude changes also emerge earlier over the eastern Pacific than other parts of the tropics. Our findings provide valuable information on the potential changes of MJO variability with the aim of improving predictions of the MJO and its associated extreme events. |
first_indexed | 2024-04-09T21:39:15Z |
format | Article |
id | doaj.art-9e2b741186ac47329114f2c5eff4803a |
institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
issn | 2397-3722 |
language | English |
last_indexed | 2024-04-09T21:39:15Z |
publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
publisher | Nature Portfolio |
record_format | Article |
series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
spelling | doaj.art-9e2b741186ac47329114f2c5eff4803a2023-03-26T11:08:32ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222023-03-01611610.1038/s41612-023-00344-zEmergence of Madden-Julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climateHien X. Bui0Yi-Xian Li1Eric D. Maloney2Ji-Eun Kim3Sun-Seon Lee4Jia-Yuh Yu5ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash UniversityDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, National Central UniversityDepartment of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State UniversityCenter for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan and Pusan National UniversityCenter for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan and Pusan National UniversityDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, National Central UniversityAbstract The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has profound impacts on weather and climate phenomena, and thus changes in its activity have important implications under human-induced global climate change. Here, the time at which the MJO change signal emerges from natural variability under anthropogenic warming is investigated. Using simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 2 large ensemble forced by the shared socioeconomic pathways SSP370 scenario, an increase in ensemble mean MJO precipitation amplitude and a smaller increase in MJO circulation amplitude occur by the end of the 21st century, consistent with previous studies. Notably, the MJO precipitation amplitude change signal generally emerges more than a decade earlier than that of MJO wind amplitude. MJO amplitude changes also emerge earlier over the eastern Pacific than other parts of the tropics. Our findings provide valuable information on the potential changes of MJO variability with the aim of improving predictions of the MJO and its associated extreme events.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00344-z |
spellingShingle | Hien X. Bui Yi-Xian Li Eric D. Maloney Ji-Eun Kim Sun-Seon Lee Jia-Yuh Yu Emergence of Madden-Julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climate npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
title | Emergence of Madden-Julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climate |
title_full | Emergence of Madden-Julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climate |
title_fullStr | Emergence of Madden-Julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climate |
title_full_unstemmed | Emergence of Madden-Julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climate |
title_short | Emergence of Madden-Julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climate |
title_sort | emergence of madden julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climate |
url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00344-z |
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