Emergence of Madden-Julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climate

Abstract The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has profound impacts on weather and climate phenomena, and thus changes in its activity have important implications under human-induced global climate change. Here, the time at which the MJO change signal emerges from natural variability under anthropogen...

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Main Authors: Hien X. Bui, Yi-Xian Li, Eric D. Maloney, Ji-Eun Kim, Sun-Seon Lee, Jia-Yuh Yu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2023-03-01
Series:npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00344-z
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author Hien X. Bui
Yi-Xian Li
Eric D. Maloney
Ji-Eun Kim
Sun-Seon Lee
Jia-Yuh Yu
author_facet Hien X. Bui
Yi-Xian Li
Eric D. Maloney
Ji-Eun Kim
Sun-Seon Lee
Jia-Yuh Yu
author_sort Hien X. Bui
collection DOAJ
description Abstract The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has profound impacts on weather and climate phenomena, and thus changes in its activity have important implications under human-induced global climate change. Here, the time at which the MJO change signal emerges from natural variability under anthropogenic warming is investigated. Using simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 2 large ensemble forced by the shared socioeconomic pathways SSP370 scenario, an increase in ensemble mean MJO precipitation amplitude and a smaller increase in MJO circulation amplitude occur by the end of the 21st century, consistent with previous studies. Notably, the MJO precipitation amplitude change signal generally emerges more than a decade earlier than that of MJO wind amplitude. MJO amplitude changes also emerge earlier over the eastern Pacific than other parts of the tropics. Our findings provide valuable information on the potential changes of MJO variability with the aim of improving predictions of the MJO and its associated extreme events.
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spelling doaj.art-9e2b741186ac47329114f2c5eff4803a2023-03-26T11:08:32ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222023-03-01611610.1038/s41612-023-00344-zEmergence of Madden-Julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climateHien X. Bui0Yi-Xian Li1Eric D. Maloney2Ji-Eun Kim3Sun-Seon Lee4Jia-Yuh Yu5ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash UniversityDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, National Central UniversityDepartment of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State UniversityCenter for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan and Pusan National UniversityCenter for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan and Pusan National UniversityDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, National Central UniversityAbstract The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has profound impacts on weather and climate phenomena, and thus changes in its activity have important implications under human-induced global climate change. Here, the time at which the MJO change signal emerges from natural variability under anthropogenic warming is investigated. Using simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 2 large ensemble forced by the shared socioeconomic pathways SSP370 scenario, an increase in ensemble mean MJO precipitation amplitude and a smaller increase in MJO circulation amplitude occur by the end of the 21st century, consistent with previous studies. Notably, the MJO precipitation amplitude change signal generally emerges more than a decade earlier than that of MJO wind amplitude. MJO amplitude changes also emerge earlier over the eastern Pacific than other parts of the tropics. Our findings provide valuable information on the potential changes of MJO variability with the aim of improving predictions of the MJO and its associated extreme events.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00344-z
spellingShingle Hien X. Bui
Yi-Xian Li
Eric D. Maloney
Ji-Eun Kim
Sun-Seon Lee
Jia-Yuh Yu
Emergence of Madden-Julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climate
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
title Emergence of Madden-Julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climate
title_full Emergence of Madden-Julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climate
title_fullStr Emergence of Madden-Julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climate
title_full_unstemmed Emergence of Madden-Julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climate
title_short Emergence of Madden-Julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climate
title_sort emergence of madden julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climate
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00344-z
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