Heterogenous climate impacts on crop yields: evidence from Ukraine
Ukraine ranks among the largest global producers and exporters of a variety of agricultural commodities. Despite its importance, there is limited research on the effect of climate change on the future of Ukraine’s agricultural sector. We investigate how weather affects the yields of Ukraine’s five m...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Communications |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acde36 |
| _version_ | 1797649927842562048 |
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| author | Ming Fang Songqing Jin Klaus Deininger Matthew Gammans |
| author_facet | Ming Fang Songqing Jin Klaus Deininger Matthew Gammans |
| author_sort | Ming Fang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Ukraine ranks among the largest global producers and exporters of a variety of agricultural commodities. Despite its importance, there is limited research on the effect of climate change on the future of Ukraine’s agricultural sector. We investigate how weather affects the yields of Ukraine’s five major crops: winter wheat, spring barley, sunflower, soybean, and corn. Using panel data on village-level surveyed crop yields and fine-scale weather data from 2004–2020, we estimate flexible statistical yield models to characterize the impact of temperature and precipitation changes on crop yields. A simple linear model of the effect of average temperature and precipitation on yields suggests warming is beneficial for all crops in Ukraine. However, a more flexible model of the temperature-yield relationship implies that the yields of two cold-season crops, winter wheat and spring barley, respond negatively to temperatures above 29 °C and 30 °C, respectively. We find no negative effects of high temperatures for the three warm-season crops. We conclude that both average temperature and exposure to high temperatures affect Ukrainian yields. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T15:54:11Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9e6db40ba45b45f59dacb0e864bf73b3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2515-7620 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T15:54:11Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Communications |
| spelling | doaj.art-9e6db40ba45b45f59dacb0e864bf73b32023-10-25T13:15:44ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Communications2515-76202023-01-0151010501510.1088/2515-7620/acde36Heterogenous climate impacts on crop yields: evidence from UkraineMing Fang0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3486-9479Songqing Jin1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8514-7930Klaus Deininger2Matthew Gammans3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6323-5155School of Economics, Central University of Finance and Economics, China; Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Michigan State University, United States of AmericaDepartment of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Michigan State University, United States of AmericaThe World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC, United States of AmericaDepartment of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Michigan State University, United States of AmericaUkraine ranks among the largest global producers and exporters of a variety of agricultural commodities. Despite its importance, there is limited research on the effect of climate change on the future of Ukraine’s agricultural sector. We investigate how weather affects the yields of Ukraine’s five major crops: winter wheat, spring barley, sunflower, soybean, and corn. Using panel data on village-level surveyed crop yields and fine-scale weather data from 2004–2020, we estimate flexible statistical yield models to characterize the impact of temperature and precipitation changes on crop yields. A simple linear model of the effect of average temperature and precipitation on yields suggests warming is beneficial for all crops in Ukraine. However, a more flexible model of the temperature-yield relationship implies that the yields of two cold-season crops, winter wheat and spring barley, respond negatively to temperatures above 29 °C and 30 °C, respectively. We find no negative effects of high temperatures for the three warm-season crops. We conclude that both average temperature and exposure to high temperatures affect Ukrainian yields.https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acde36climate changeagriculturecrop yieldsland productivityUkraine |
| spellingShingle | Ming Fang Songqing Jin Klaus Deininger Matthew Gammans Heterogenous climate impacts on crop yields: evidence from Ukraine Environmental Research Communications climate change agriculture crop yields land productivity Ukraine |
| title | Heterogenous climate impacts on crop yields: evidence from Ukraine |
| title_full | Heterogenous climate impacts on crop yields: evidence from Ukraine |
| title_fullStr | Heterogenous climate impacts on crop yields: evidence from Ukraine |
| title_full_unstemmed | Heterogenous climate impacts on crop yields: evidence from Ukraine |
| title_short | Heterogenous climate impacts on crop yields: evidence from Ukraine |
| title_sort | heterogenous climate impacts on crop yields evidence from ukraine |
| topic | climate change agriculture crop yields land productivity Ukraine |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acde36 |
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