Co-designed agro-climate indicators identify different future climate effects for grape and olive across Europe
Co-design processes involving the scientific community, practitioners, end users and stakeholders can efficiently characterize harmful weather events during the growing season that potentially result in losses of crop yield and quality. This study builds on the experience of the EU Horizon 2020 proj...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2024-04-01
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| Series: | Climate Services |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000098 |
| _version_ | 1797295226235125760 |
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| author | Andrej Ceglar Chenyao Yang Andrea Toreti João A. Santos Massimiliano Pasqui Luigi Ponti Alessandro Dell'Aquila António Graça |
| author_facet | Andrej Ceglar Chenyao Yang Andrea Toreti João A. Santos Massimiliano Pasqui Luigi Ponti Alessandro Dell'Aquila António Graça |
| author_sort | Andrej Ceglar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Co-design processes involving the scientific community, practitioners, end users and stakeholders can efficiently characterize harmful weather events during the growing season that potentially result in losses of crop yield and quality. This study builds on the experience of the EU Horizon 2020 project MED-GOLD for grape and olive. The identified agro-climate indicators are extended from the MED-GOLD regions to the entire ones where grape and olive are currently grown in Europe and Turkey, and used to assess climate change impacts with intrinsic adaptation relevance stemming from the co-design process. Before 2000, only a low fraction of the European grape and olive growing areas was exposed to extreme weather events as revealed by the agro-climate indicators, but this has changed rapidly afterward. Projections show increasingly widespread extreme high temperature events from 2020 to 2080. Approximately one-third of grapevine regions and over half of olive cultivation areas are expected to experience extreme drought conditions. Additionally, the frequency of compound extreme events will increase in the future, especially in the Mediterranean region and under the high-end emission scenario RCP8.5. This outcome calls for a new decision-making mindset that embeds expected levels of climate variability and extremes as the “new normal” for grape and olive in Europe. This will facilitate deployment of the required biophysical, economic and policy adaptation tools. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T21:43:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9e717a6f951749249faaa984d4cbfc02 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2405-8807 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T21:43:40Z |
| publishDate | 2024-04-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate Services |
| spelling | doaj.art-9e717a6f951749249faaa984d4cbfc022024-02-26T04:16:08ZengElsevierClimate Services2405-88072024-04-0134100454Co-designed agro-climate indicators identify different future climate effects for grape and olive across EuropeAndrej Ceglar0Chenyao Yang1Andrea Toreti2João A. Santos3Massimiliano Pasqui4Luigi Ponti5Alessandro Dell'Aquila6António Graça7European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Via E. Fermi 2749, Ispra, Italy; Corresponding author currently at: Climate Change Centre of the European Central Bank, Sonnemann Strasse 20, 60314 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.College of Agronomy, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China; Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, CITAB, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD, Vila Real, PortugalEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre, Via E. Fermi 2749, Ispra, ItalyCentre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, CITAB, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD, Vila Real, PortugalInstitute of Bioeconomy, National Research Council of Italy, Via dei Taurini 19, 00185 Roma, ItalyAgenzia nazionale per le nuove tecnologie, l’energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile (ENEA), Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Via Anguillarese 301, 00123 Roma, Italy; Center for the Analysis of Sustainable Agricultural Systems (www.casasglobal.org), 37 Arlington Ave., Kensington, CA 94707-1035, USAAgenzia nazionale per le nuove tecnologie, l’energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile (ENEA), Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Via Anguillarese 301, 00123 Roma, ItalySogrape Vinhos SA, Rua 5 de outubro 4527, Avintes 4430-852, PortugalCo-design processes involving the scientific community, practitioners, end users and stakeholders can efficiently characterize harmful weather events during the growing season that potentially result in losses of crop yield and quality. This study builds on the experience of the EU Horizon 2020 project MED-GOLD for grape and olive. The identified agro-climate indicators are extended from the MED-GOLD regions to the entire ones where grape and olive are currently grown in Europe and Turkey, and used to assess climate change impacts with intrinsic adaptation relevance stemming from the co-design process. Before 2000, only a low fraction of the European grape and olive growing areas was exposed to extreme weather events as revealed by the agro-climate indicators, but this has changed rapidly afterward. Projections show increasingly widespread extreme high temperature events from 2020 to 2080. Approximately one-third of grapevine regions and over half of olive cultivation areas are expected to experience extreme drought conditions. Additionally, the frequency of compound extreme events will increase in the future, especially in the Mediterranean region and under the high-end emission scenario RCP8.5. This outcome calls for a new decision-making mindset that embeds expected levels of climate variability and extremes as the “new normal” for grape and olive in Europe. This will facilitate deployment of the required biophysical, economic and policy adaptation tools.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000098GrapeOliveClimate changeEuropeMediterraneanCompound events |
| spellingShingle | Andrej Ceglar Chenyao Yang Andrea Toreti João A. Santos Massimiliano Pasqui Luigi Ponti Alessandro Dell'Aquila António Graça Co-designed agro-climate indicators identify different future climate effects for grape and olive across Europe Climate Services Grape Olive Climate change Europe Mediterranean Compound events |
| title | Co-designed agro-climate indicators identify different future climate effects for grape and olive across Europe |
| title_full | Co-designed agro-climate indicators identify different future climate effects for grape and olive across Europe |
| title_fullStr | Co-designed agro-climate indicators identify different future climate effects for grape and olive across Europe |
| title_full_unstemmed | Co-designed agro-climate indicators identify different future climate effects for grape and olive across Europe |
| title_short | Co-designed agro-climate indicators identify different future climate effects for grape and olive across Europe |
| title_sort | co designed agro climate indicators identify different future climate effects for grape and olive across europe |
| topic | Grape Olive Climate change Europe Mediterranean Compound events |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000098 |
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