Reducing risks in megaprojects: The potential of reference class forecasting
Large infrastructure projects often suffer from cost and schedule overruns, mainly due to optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. Reference class forecasting (RCF) offers a potential remedy. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the RCF literature with the aim of providing practitio...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Project Leadership and Society |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666721523000248 |
| _version_ | 1797385034102996992 |
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| author | Rebekka Baerenbold |
| author_facet | Rebekka Baerenbold |
| author_sort | Rebekka Baerenbold |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Large infrastructure projects often suffer from cost and schedule overruns, mainly due to optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. Reference class forecasting (RCF) offers a potential remedy. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the RCF literature with the aim of providing practitioners with key insights and identifying areas for future research. Through a review of 41 selected papers, the paper shows that the effectiveness of RCF is mainly applicable to large-scale projects and depends on the definition of the reference class. The paper calls for the development of an empirically based framework for reference class formation and urges the exploration of RCF's adaptability across industries, challenging the current one-size-fits-all approach. Theoretically, the paper critically assesses the current applications of RCF, while practically it outlines directions for future research and improvements. Overall, the study emphasises the need for detailed, data-driven methodologies and highlights their potential for risk management in projects worldwide. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T21:47:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9ea101ab8f3a42f8b4ff5428f00024c6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2666-7215 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T21:47:20Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Project Leadership and Society |
| spelling | doaj.art-9ea101ab8f3a42f8b4ff5428f00024c62023-12-20T07:39:21ZengElsevierProject Leadership and Society2666-72152023-12-014100103Reducing risks in megaprojects: The potential of reference class forecastingRebekka Baerenbold0Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Basel, Peter Merian-Weg 6, 4002, Basel, SwitzerlandLarge infrastructure projects often suffer from cost and schedule overruns, mainly due to optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. Reference class forecasting (RCF) offers a potential remedy. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the RCF literature with the aim of providing practitioners with key insights and identifying areas for future research. Through a review of 41 selected papers, the paper shows that the effectiveness of RCF is mainly applicable to large-scale projects and depends on the definition of the reference class. The paper calls for the development of an empirically based framework for reference class formation and urges the exploration of RCF's adaptability across industries, challenging the current one-size-fits-all approach. Theoretically, the paper critically assesses the current applications of RCF, while practically it outlines directions for future research and improvements. Overall, the study emphasises the need for detailed, data-driven methodologies and highlights their potential for risk management in projects worldwide.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666721523000248Reference class forecastingProject managementCost estimation methodCost overrunMegaprojects |
| spellingShingle | Rebekka Baerenbold Reducing risks in megaprojects: The potential of reference class forecasting Project Leadership and Society Reference class forecasting Project management Cost estimation method Cost overrun Megaprojects |
| title | Reducing risks in megaprojects: The potential of reference class forecasting |
| title_full | Reducing risks in megaprojects: The potential of reference class forecasting |
| title_fullStr | Reducing risks in megaprojects: The potential of reference class forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | Reducing risks in megaprojects: The potential of reference class forecasting |
| title_short | Reducing risks in megaprojects: The potential of reference class forecasting |
| title_sort | reducing risks in megaprojects the potential of reference class forecasting |
| topic | Reference class forecasting Project management Cost estimation method Cost overrun Megaprojects |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666721523000248 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT rebekkabaerenbold reducingrisksinmegaprojectsthepotentialofreferenceclassforecasting |